Transcript for FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: Warren drops out
Hello and welcome to this emergency edition of the thigh create politics podcast. I'm dealing through and we've just heard the breaking news that senator Elizabeth Warren is planning to to rock out of the democratic primary race. Today on Thursday. And so here at me to discuss that news why it's happening now and how this could affect the race going forward our editor in chief Nate Silver at the irony. Going well thank you. And senior politics writer Clara Malone how the government cleric he can't Claire tickers doctor. To some degree this may be self explanatory given Super Tuesday but why is Elizabeth Warren deciding to drop out Ted. Well she's decided to drop out today because she doesn't have a path forward a viable path forward. You know I think we lease. I would see some inkling to this on Super Tuesday when she. Came out really early in the night to give a speech in Michigan and kind of you know implored. That Michigan crowd. To basically vote their conscience to not vote strategically to vote for the person. They think would be the best president and you know it was it was kind of she's always cheerful presence but I it it did feel like they're sort of something. Really different behind the kind of at that permits your smile. And ends I think she has really suffered. In the past week with Joseph Biden proving that he could win. The loads of votes in South Carolina and that sort of set the stage for Super Tuesday when he just had a really. Unexpectedly. Fantastic night. And and she really tests. You know I think really in the end was killed by the school. Quote and quote electability obsession with the Democratic Party which. I think the votes Barack now does not include. A woman. So it seemed to like Elizabeth Warren wasn't Summers making the case that she could be unity candidate at a contested convention. Does the fact that she's dropping out neat means that. As part she sees it or maybe even as far as the data shows were not on track for a contested convention. Well you would now needed to happen. And in the mower and usual way which is that you'd have to have a close margin between Biden and Sanders. Close enough that the delegates that have been won already by Warren and Bloomberg and Rudy church would outweigh the margin that's possible I mean we don't actually know yet how may notice that will be by the way. Some of those delegates are statewide delegates and those are actually essentially given back by the candidates who won them two other candidates and so is about like. Two thirds delegates they went so far might be I know I'm guessing a 150 delegates or so that are off the table. So if there that many off the table and the question is is that larger than the margin between Biden and Sanders and it could be. It actually makes Bernie have to climb a slightly higher hail if he's behind Biden. But clearly this is not necessarily. Are not as likely going to be the kind of contested convention multi way multi fascinated. Fun that we. Thought we might get this year. And declare you started mentioning this a little bit the conversation about electability that seemed to dominate democratic primary coverage and also in the polls. Of likely democratic primary voters. Why didn't things worked out for warrant. Is that is that basically the whole story what is there you know kind of what exactly happened. Yes I mean it's. It's a knotty concept right Ann and Andy and I actually had tears disagreement about it on this podcast but I think. We'll be the shorthand electability. During this primary election came to mean in a general election. Who is the best candidate to win over voters in the swing states. That in the midwest and some in the southeast. Southwest who could win over these kind of male independent white swing voters. Ands. The democratic primary electorate spent a lot of time I think psychology dies in those voters' preferences. Perhaps correctly I don't know right that you know they they sort of seemed to indicate via their preference in actual. Voting and in polls before that that they didn't sentencing that a person of color are a woman would be appealing in part because those. Groups those identity groups have really been politicized and a certain way certainly an accelerated rate during the trap administration but before hand. Certainly with a lot of kind of progressive social movements to me to movement the black that's matters movement that have. Really gained strength in the past decade I would say so there's lots of really complicated. There are reasons for why. I think Warren ultimately fell victim like so many. In this race to that electability. Parrot talks. Yet knee is that your sense as wild and it was really the electability focus than it did Elizabeth Warren in what were the arbiter. Aspects if not are hurting. The woman where years after Hillary Clinton which probably plays into that electability. Yeah I wanted. This time in UC. We're during the New Hampshire. Primary next what's go about like just. The term electability. Is so vague right. I think because she kind of data yet but you know voters did express concern about her ability to beat trump. And for what it's worth she did not tend to poll as well against trump as either Bernie. Were Biden did. Banana huge difference but yet what electability means in practice to voters and I think I think it's to make things right for three big things that are kind of maybe Eleanor related. One is she did not read as likable to voters. Won the is like. A lot of gender perceptions of Warren. The other thing that's problematic for her though is she kind of got squeezed in between the Sanders on the left and Biden. And booted catch and others in the middle he at one point was maybe only five points behind Biden and second place in national polls she slipped. Quite a bit from the air what she moved from I have a plan for that. To kind of more vague generic kind of liberal candidates seem not to helpers much of that we're going to do detection of the people you know I think she made some mistakes I think she made a big mistake for not having her own. Health care plan and then being pretty. I inconsistent. Actor you know I'd and now I'm in terms for misting on health care thereafter. Yeah I think she was hanging. Let's stipulate. It could be gains harsh Asian there's a lot of sexism going on here but I do also think that there were some real her campaign had some. Choice is that it made that it couldn't that maybe you know as Nate said people probably read her policies as more liberal. Or eat because she's a woman right there is that sort of perception she generally shares the same. Ideological worldview via barge give and take with Bernie Sanders is obvious is still in the race who is perceived by voters is quoted quote more electable which. To me there's obviously a Jenner component and they're. But you towards the end of the campaign they were also kind of going back on some. Promises that they had me at the start rate Warren initially when she set out. Was like I'm not taking any pac money and her finance director quit in the early stages the campaign now about ten days ago. She basically said. In this in this politician he way. Well. Everett house is taking pac money so we'll we'll take pac money to probably but we're not happy about it you know that this idea that that she knew she was struggling and and she got a issue got a lot of youth and grief for that from. In the digits team in particular. I think saying. Am you know we can't spew out their purity test that you can't even pass right that was the line. So I think that that structurally her campaign ran into a lot of problems. Because of the idealism loves her clap for that for whatever reason you know Sanders hasn't really. Had to face the same questions and I think some some of those reasons assured me. Gender. But it but you know. Before we talk about what comes next and how this affects the race going forward I do want to ask Elizabeth Warren. Has a -- the entire year plus that we've been covering this hold pretty well with Democrats when it comes to her favorability. You know. Poll after poll that we conducted with abscess in the debates she came out on top. So where is the disconnect between Democrats saying that they like her and they think she's done a good job in some of the kind of mean set pieces of this race and then people not voting for. It kind of feels like. Favorability doesn't seem to mean very much you know what I mean. Trumpet really terrible favorable throughout. Between sixteen and didn't prevent him from consolidating the field. Warren and really get favorable to the scene to help her. Bernie has fables are just as good as Biden. But it's Biden who's getting all the support of the candidates so far and gaining right it's like I don't know I think it's just like. If you're not two months first choice that I'm not sure how much he really tells about about your your second choices. Yeah it's just strange primary not to be dispersed and at a piece coming out later today that that up that's a little bit about this right this sort of strange. Psychology or pathology of this primary where war is kind of what Democrats the democratic base or to see they want great. She's relatively new to elect coral politics right she's. She's she's got I'm an establishment person but. I am whistle the left word blue tilt to the party because the party has become. More ideologically liberal over the over the past few decades so it is a mean to me it all comes back to. The Democratic Party is still very much a prisoner of its. Trump in a lot of ways right that that that that so many of their decisions are driven by him he's basically like the prime mover of this. Primary which is pretty fascinating. In the reporting that we saw this morning about. Warren's plans drop out of the race there wasn't any inkling that she wanted to endorse anybody at two week we simply don't know. But at this point do we expect and because this affects perhaps more her supporters might do. Do we expect her to endorse anybody and if so who. I was. Keyword searching the term endorse in all the articles are read. And for helping him missing your reporting that clarifies that it seemed to me like it was very much an open question if she would endorse and if so who achieved endorse. You know I mean you would think Sanders would be even more logical choice but if you looks like he is kind of the and their two things right. One is if Bernie looks like he's more elected to be the losing candidate then. People don't like to endorse. People who look like a journal news too is is they are some degree the animosity between Warren and Sanders clearly she was. I think perturbed after that one debate about about what she thought was a misrepresentation of the conversation about credit women. When the presidency and three is kind of what. She wants for the party if she is kind of a capital. OK. Maybe actor for Bernie although I have some issues with Bernie. But I prefer him to Biden with the bankruptcy stuff and all that. But I don't want to get in the way here in causing big prolonged nomination process that's been a drag things out like we had between sixteen. And if I'd weigh in Lamberty side than. What could happen is he having very long process that results in maybe actually could get a contested convention. Or maybe you actually would have like Bernie come close but not quite come back but a lot of bad feelings raised the sum is kind of a question like. Every Democrat is asking themselves I think right is still wanna Connecticut go through. A long between sixteen style process. You know the answer is no then it means Biden's gonna win really big over the next few weeks lieutenant going to be over in two weeks but like I don't know what warrants thinking and I wouldn't I would take. I guess it would take at face value of the reporting that she has a tough decision. Yeah I think I think everything he has laid out there's really right and I think one of the reasons wiry. Eight get where we're according of course she's made a public statement anxious tar inter sap now I'd be surprised if she comes to you know full blown decision today. Because she is I mean. I do think she's a person who thinks in. About systems and structures and how they see the Democratic Party is a structure. One the cheese she belongs to and one that is going to play. A role that's important to her and Hearst Anne and her supporters. In in ideally from their point you repeating Donald Trump and the fall says she's she yes she does have to make this. This. Really tough choice and and I think you know she doesn't. Adding to public like Sanders more personally than she does Biden. So of course there's bishop of human being choices. But you have to make companies these levels so done incredibly incredibly inch sit deceive. Who she endorses if she sits it out who knows. You know she's she's it she's at figured. Huge power and import in the party. And I think if the chemical if a Democrat wins. In November she will have a very important place in that it. Ministries and yeah and in some ice for that reason I had to. I would bet that she wouldn't endorse but of course you know that's just intuition and it's hard for any ready to say for sure. If so let's set aside an endorsement maybe assuming that she doesn't endorse immediately. Saying night not before Michigan. What does the data that we have tell us about where her voters might guy. I think most of it says that the slight majority would go to Bernie that maybe nine overwhelming majority. Let's keep man we don't actually been kind of know we're here. The polls stand at this point they were already moving a lot and we haven't had very much if any post Super Tuesday data I mean I don't know I think actual like. The lanes stuff has been more predictive and then people. I think we I was always pro lanes but you know some flexibility other hot takers work right but like I don't know I mean I think occupants razors that but don't go. Ain't seem somewhat frustrated here between ideology and the demographics of their support in the sense that. Elizabeth Warren has more support from women for example. And so does Biden I'll just say. Ideologues OK we'll look like look at what have a Super Tuesday. All of all of the churches include the charter supporters went to Biden basically. I mean it was kind of like in Minnesota like a wonder when transfer its stream Klobuchar mean it was with endorsements let's different maybe right alike. Brad and only 21 approximation Bloomberg and Warren dropped out and a kind of assumed jointly. At their support will be divided. Fairly evenly maybe a little bit more to Biden because he seems to be ahead overall but your first approximation I think it's probably get it even somewhat out. Yeah I'm looking at morning console polling of second choices before Bloomberg dropped our yesterday. And it says Sanders sorry and among warring supporters it says that second support 43% for Sanders 36%. From Biden. That's about right. Yeah I mean that's that's the pulled ahead by an overall and that's not far from from what our model doesn't uses which uses priors as to the polls. It's not that far from what it would assume it might have a slightly higher percentage going to. To Bernie than that but it's not super far off. Yet clear I mean when it comes to the characteristics and demographics of Elizabeth Warren's based on support. Is it clear where the overlap is between Sanders and Ivan. I mean her supporters tend to be it a shared a lot of characteristics with. But keep pretty ditches supporters in especially in the early states of being white college educated and Panama establishment Democrats. Seated sees that group. Tilting over her. In my reading tilting over more towards Biden. I I think. A lot of Warren's supporters are like we're like Clinton 26 team primary supporter types not Sanders 26 team primary supporter types. Even if they have. The lip roll. Ideologies of Sanders. And I just I also think. Potentially with the greater emphasis of the race now on on this quote unquote electability. Saying that Adam. You know you're starting to see it I think it was fox who had that interesting piece earlier this week about. You know our our artists Sanders trumps heads to head to head to actually sort of misleading. Unity could see that kind of getting out more people saying like that's and Biden is actually that this. Consistently the more electable person in these any certain Adams thinks states in head to heads. So I I kind of see. I do you see warns supporters as being a decently establishment leaning group ultimately which is good news for. I Anna bot support you're talking about which I think we should talk about at some point on this podcast was essentially saying that. The reason polls show Sanders. And Biden about doing about the same against crop. Is because a bunch of young voters say that they were support Sanders but not abided and a question is where they actually turn out in a general election and we should definitely have a conversation at some point. And Hagar had what do you make of of this art. This sounds like it should have been album like it's a party to mind. The people who support of war and are people who by definition. Did not support. Sanders. Were Biden. And at this point if you're one of the 12% or so people who support of Warren on Super Tuesday you kind of made that choice knowing that strategically you might. Be. Throwing your vote away and so that means like to some extent these people might be a little bit harder for. For them to win over managing the chance they might sit out where they might vote for candidate who's dropped out of their valor mean Iraqi some of that right it's different and Mike Bloomberg where. Bloomberg's whole argument was very tactical right he's like I am me rich. Empty vessel for which you can be trucked. And I'm just gonna like erase myself and be generic Democrat even outside a history. Is that lots of money and we can be trump and and his baggage that Biden or Bernie have or Warren and a white man you know that's very different men. Warrants pitch where it's all about authenticity in and persistence right now she's gone from 24%. In the polls. In a peak of 12% now. The people who remain are kind of the most hardcore Warren stands and so so I don't know whether we're they'll go you know I I think there's also like. Like look I really really really think they'll like old Bernie Sanders people are mean on Twitter. Whether that's true we're not that you might be true I think it's like way way overrated as a point of analysis and democratic conversation. I think it just more something that might in what reporters and is actually very relevant but I do wonder a bit like there is a lot of animosity. Between. War and fans and Sanders fans and never make it harder for there to be a kind of clean. Transition. For Kennedy to should be ideologically kind of sympathetic to one other guy does not read for your crime. It does. And I think this plays and a larger conversation about. Sanders. Strategy had. You know he's it's if it's a campaign whose. Ethos was forged in the underdog fires of 2016 and has maintained a really strong. Culture both on the campaign and outwardly it's it's surge of telegraph that to its supporters that is not an attitude no stance that. Warren supporters more establishments purse tend to like so it does track to me that's a real. It's a real culture clash in a lot of ways and I'd say I guess the last thing tat is. The standards campaign supporters do you have. A reputation. For being. And sexist. So if you're a woman Warren supporter looking for a home or if you're Elizabeth Warren herself. Looking in considering. Who could throw your support to that's got to be a consideration eternal fair. Yet and you can sit up persisting and the exit polls and Super Tuesday. Biden during significantly better than Sanders among women right now absolutely it's it's really interesting. Anyway that's all well rather. She got a whole other thing that if you do wonder if a minister pretty conspicuous. Splits in the exit polls actually seemed to be more profound than in some of the pre election polls. So that's interest and yet are well I think we're gonna leave things there we will of course have more podcasts coming for you soon. As. Readers listeners may have noticed we have still not updated the primary forecast so want to update well have a model talked out. And of course if Elizabeth Warren doesn't or someone will have another podcast discussing that. So a lot coming away in this podcast feed but that's it for now thank you cleric stinks here on state your name all right. Pataki both in my name is game injury attorney chow is in the control room can get in touch by emailing us at podcasts I thirty dot com. You can also of course treated us with any questions or comments. If you're a fan of the show beavis a rating or review in the apple podcast store or tell someone about us. Things are listening and we'll see. Or.
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