Transcript for The 'FiveThirtyEight' Team Breaks Down the Last Debate of 2015
Let's go over to them an ounce as far friends over at 538 who have been live blogging and live streaming. Their own coverage skies as an eight cell car and that Harry and ten Claire Malone joining us from inside their headquarters. What are you tracking tonight what stood out to you from tonight's today. That character not in the room was Donald Trump he was the only Republican candidate mentioned it took him twelve times collectively by all three. Candidates. Clearly someone who and our view will be some when Hillary you were burning would want to run against potentially. In terms of the democratic race I'm not sure it changed. That much. I thought Bernie Sanders was effective but Hillary Clinton is very popular with almost every major constituency. Of the Democratic Party it is now happening more opportunities and that one more case. Between now and Iowa. So he was fine but I sometimes feel like Bernie is running. To get his issues talked about it on the table. And not necessarily running two to take away the nomination from Clinton. Yeah I I agree with you Nate I mean Hillary Clinton's favorable ratings among Democrats remain very very high and she performed to me very well tonight. Bernie Sanders or Marin O'Malley would need a game changer really get back in the race Clinton leads in Iowa although that lead isn't. That large it it's fairly substantial about seventeen points on average and if you win tonight which is probably gonna go on and when New Hampshire and in the race rapid. Up up very quickly. It was a different kind of debate than you know the Republican debate the other night there was a lot of talking about. Policies and more granular detail how a Syrian beds intervention would look you know an so I think that there is a lot of a more digging into issues there only three people on the stage I think it just makes for different kind of kinda debate is. Think it's one thing I think about is a mean Harry east side. How congenial the debate was really in with three candidates like you said. Much more substantive meanwhile the GOP nomination process. Is a mess right now. If you had to give odds right now of of 'cause you start out as I did say it's a 5050 election. If you had to give us right now they're view about how much the democratic nominee probably there Clinton is to win the nomination with a journalist rather Roche for those numbers tonight you know. I think every moment that Donald Trump continues plea in the Republican race and Ted Cruz to second the chance that the Republicans went goes down a little bit each day. So right now I think you know the democratic chances of winning are higher than they were a week ago and higher than they were a month ago exact percentages they. And naturally again and that are we are. Way to play for the cameras there were all about exact percentages I'll leave those to you at. Clarity and problems Saturday. If the numbers that won't put numbers to we're overwhelmed numbers guys were numbers guys together but no in all seriousness I mean. At the end of the day the real question the Republican side is whether or not Donald Trump protects it gets the nomination if it's not one of those two. Then I think Republicans might actually slightly favored but we'll have to see where things and got. An online betting markets though Democrats are now about a three to exceed 60% favorites there has been some draft as a result the primary process toward. Toward Democrats now betting market even know Clinton herself. You know her popularity is made up a little bit but fairly bad right now right you wouldn't say she's had. A great campaign. But Democrats problems put perspective next to the GOP's. They look pretty mild and pretty mellow share. The betting markets also meant that Jeb Bush is being up fairly sizable favored early on so he's betting markets can shift. And stayed there until we we we thought I'm failed. Iowa Caucuses until February 1 let's see where we are in a month there's a lot of time remember at this point John Edwards and John Kerry in 2004. On the democratic federal way in back of Dick Gephardt and Howard Dean in Iowa so a lot of times a lot things can check out between now costs the John Kerry the. When actually had a 3% chance and betting markets have become the nominee which he did in 2000 forward. I'm sure there are some Bernie Sanders supporters. Sitting there and say technology markets myself and I see they're giving me. A 3% chance a 5% chance. Should it make you feel good is a very supporter is a reason to think that Bernie could do what what John Kerry did. You were in Iowa. I was in Iowa I don't know I just don't think Bernie you know he doesn't house I think he's I think he's not necessarily. In it to win it in many ways I think I just keep on going backed the idea of you and he isn't his campaign is as well funded and he's he's more I think he's Morton running to bring ideas and sensor that's pushing a bit more enthusiasm from Bernie's backers when you've been out there. I haven't obviously you know it's funny you know talking tonight about democratic candidates it seems like it's in taking such a backseat so honestly a lot of events I was going to repair Republican focus I think you government sensing Bernie. Earnings porters or younger it's more likely Obama Democrat from Kabul. Here's ago but you know I don't know I think it's kind of hard this and people are sort of liking to given the chance and liking to hear those ideas as there were. Of them which Hillary supporters become complacent. And they say you know what this looks like a walk over. She's going to be the nominee they don't show up and there's a big surprise. In Iowa because he's not suffered any point out this week that in the best Paula violent self Tripoli somewhat ten point nine. You know that's actually closer than filter has a Republican race just tinkering with ten points up. On Donald Trump. It is. Mathematically. Incorrectly he's very viable and nightly. Sure sure he's very viable Iowa he's very viable New Hampshire but once you get the rates down South Carolina Hillary Clinton leads there by 49 percentage points. And she is very very strong among African Americans and there's been no sign of that shipping and until it dies Hillary Clinton's most likely going to be the democratic. OK well thank you in we hope you join us for the whole rest of the primary campaign. Will be sure to check back and read you guys are thanks to our friends over at 538 of course for anyone who wants to get more into those details. Please don't read a check out the website a lot of great information and data crunching there.
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