Transcript for FiveThirtyEight’s election forecast 6 days out
The election just six days at a new ABC news in Washington Post poll out this morning shows Joseph Biden with a seven point lead over president trump in the key state of Michigan and all whopping seventeen point lead in Wisconsin that state reported more grownups canoe corona virus cases and deaths soundly yesterday than on any other day of the pandemic so it's really raging there let's bring in 538 and of their chief Entergy net Nate Silver. For a deeper dive in these numbers Nate Wisconsin had seventeen point laid Biden. Provide mid to sounds. I was present when the closest races was then are we seeing. The crown of our surge impacting the race what's going on there. So I wouldn't peg the rates of seventeen come obviously ABC news Washington Post is a great pollster but we have an average of polls and 530 you which has the race at about. Eight points some. Which is a pretty hefty lead for Biden still remember he's ahead nationally by around eight or nine points culturally saying is that come is that Wisconsin is often here is. It's pretty close the national average but yet there are some signs that. When you have the worst call the cluster and the country right now. Then I can probably hurt trumpet the margins are exactly wrong teacher would be closing on him one of the more important battleground. It's an eight Michigan and Wisconsin got a lot of attention since Hillary Clinton lost there in 2016 but you have Pennsylvania. Has the key state to watch can either candidate win this election without winning Pennsylvania. And Joseph Biden might have some options right if Joseph Biden lost Pennsylvania but one Wisconsin Michigan and any wins Arizona where he's ahead in. Tonight actually probably Biden win so he has. Some backup plans. For trumpets Margaret must win in part because of Wisconsin and Michigan right we can't rule anything out. But for now looks like intricate and I think it's kind of sad waste targeting its advertising that Pennsylvania is. The best of that Rust Belt trio. In this post little's only a five point racing that's meeting which is a more achievable deficit to overcome and so I you know I'm gonna try campaign is. I'm pretty Elena Pennsylvania for that matter the Biden has spent more time has been an interstate so it's the most important state right now. Nate did such a different year this U 74 million voters have already cast their ballots. Is there any way to tell how what to break down is there are new voters come and ended into this system people would have voted on Election Day moving their vote to a different time the partisan breakdown looking at her tell from that early voting data. People need to be careful in part because you know in some states which party someone belongs to but not necessarily who they voted for in some sits on Joseph Biden's and comes from independent voters. Look all indications are turn out going to be very high it might be around a hundred. And 55 million went to be up from 137 million. Four years ago. Necessarily mean she'll have some new voters or voters who didn't. Both inflation and haven't we always or something like that. But they're going to be new voters on both sides right people are at record levels abuse he has a good election they've even been lots of money raised lots of votes cast already. So you know I think it's not actually a turnout election need to persuasion election winners who can win. Independent voters can I didn't win back people who voted for Obama and putting twelve and in wavered but particularly Eckstein are voting for Gary Johnson right. If he can win those fattening Clinton didn't lose by that much. Then he could win either in their earlier more clearly depend on how many than their words. You know what we didn't always like to state the obvious Morgan have a gigantic. Turnout this election. And then 8530 eight's election forecast shows Biden is favored to win the election with an 88. Percent chance that you treated last night if the highest favored but not certain to win we need to provide quite a bit of coverage about why Biden is in good shape. While also sometimes discussing the ways that he might lose so. Why is Biden in good shape then how might he lose. He's in good shape and national. Pulse is in good shape in the upper midwest Wisconsin. Michigan right he's ahead actually now narrowly. Even in some states like Georgia and Florida and North Carolina come but there is one particular path. That eluded to earlier that she still have Biden a little bit worried which is that trump is not that hard down. In North Carolina or he's not African Pennsylvania and other states are cheaper traditionally red leaning and there are only narrow Biden leads to her right so Biden has high wind. Pretty good plan within a couple of other OK plans to come still does have some some daylight. If we were to get polls of Pennsylvania issue in a nine point race fair something. There were kind of on the tail of the normal distribution where we're looking at something to be pretty unlikely. But five point deficit in the key state is not it's not that hard to overcome a such insane we gonna have. Potentially a lot of litigation over mail ballots like people boarding minor for the first time you can make errors when you file that ballot. So you know it's not totally in the comfort zone yet provide and it shouldn't be. All right Nate Silver. Representing Detroit proudly despite their rendering this year thanks very much for them.
This transcript has been automatically generated and may not be 100% accurate.