Could an Independent Candidate Succeed in 2016?

ABC News' Josh Haskell visits the FiveThrityEight newsroom.
20:59 | 05/13/16

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Transcript for Could an Independent Candidate Succeed in 2016?
Three candidates. Left in between sixteen race may be Josh Haskell worth 530 organ breakdowns in the current topics right now. Again three candidates not to Bernie Sanders Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump or six months away from November. And to get a little bit more clarity on where things stand whether. The vice presidential race a third party run Donald Trump the Republican Party. I've come over here to chat with our friends you know the numbers hairy ants in and Walt picking and let's bring him in right now and talk a little bit. How you doing guys. Joseph doing well thanks for a chatting with. Original died. Pan around and I guess there's so many topics that we could go over is this sort of an interesting phase of OK it's Donald Trump. Word we go from here. I tell us kind of what is senior orbit right now as you look up today he's of course and washed in with. Paul Ryan. Will what do you think is most interesting in terms of the numbers the polls. Well to me you know there's this real question going forward of whether or not the Republican Party can unify behind Donald not squat. Donald Trump is trying to do a meeting with Iran because the fact of the matter is that there are more people were identified as Democrats and Republican in the country. And Donald Trump needs unified Republican Party to have any real shot at winning to remember last time around. Mitt Romney won among independents and he still lost. Because they're more Democrats Republicans. Most appalling so far has indicated that Hillary Clinton has more Democrats voting for her. And Donald Trump has Republicans and vote for him it was very interesting to see whether or not has meaning and goal long way towards coalesced and Republicans work truck which desperately new head into the fall. The the news coming out of that meaning that it hurt Bryant for a meeting with Lou as they pass it right and like we're not gonna think we're gonna like green and I'm actually immunity idol we're not gonna think unification there's a program. Difference here but I think it and it's really kind of comes under tremendous days of the election is that. He can't really isn't getting ranked he's got to actually think it is going to unify the party than it is going to be in meaningful you've. Got to beat the. Right I think you know one of the things that we're kind of looking towards as we looked in the primary and look towards general election is bound from still only one at this point about 41%. Of the Republican vote. Not exactly a majority is a rally Ottoman chart. And that if you look to Nebraska results for instance on Tuesday he only got 60% of Nevada there 40% of Republicans vote against. Yeah only funny the only ones still running so you know there's clearly this part of the base that doesn't want to get behind him and the need for better or worse whether or not he recognizes it or not. He needs to unify that I am the type of people who elect other true believers. The people who honestly do not like a number of the policies that's as one or two but a number of Becky has sort of work during the campaign so it's been very interesting to see whether or not they can be for real and yet. So Hillary Clinton. Not the nominee yet. Donald Trump not officially the nominee but there was a poll that came out of quinnipiac poll it got a lot of people talking all while this race is so close. Can you guys talk a little bit about that. Specifically that the poll was looking at these battleground states. We reached an earlier if you look beginning march. Every single all Clinton. Rasmussen poll an adequate national. But here. And we should keep in mind at rest and at Mitt Romney winning the 2012 election and it didn't exactly happen I don't remember president Romney taking office on January 20. That's like ABC news we will air were at the polls and non every people's rescue in which Donald Trump talks about it all the events I heard it all we can wash and we're not an -- with people and ABC news standards but look into it yet. Right so quinnipiac is an air worthy Poland there are some nice folks up there in Connecticut. Five tying it for my friend out first when they're black. I'm and you know. These Iran one colony. We look at Marist which had published polls in the state. Of Ohio Clark him pencil and Donald Trump was trailing on all. These who won all. I would be very cautious about reading too much into one bowl and a few swing we have plenty of other polls in the national polls at this point Mir are more telling them on that doesn't mean quinnipiac pollster doesn't mean that Donald Trump him when election or wash look at one hole in the three states we nationally we respect what. 2122. Polls that it from produced publicly over the last month at the same number of polls that are produced in all your long and states Pennsylvania. Florida and Ohio combined. Response how how much. In the polls. National. Kind of act of start easily imagine. Well I know this happened where you born you know. Mike Michael caucus it was yet trying to close my Cox don't mind Michael Dukakis was leading in the all the George Herbert Walker Bush in nineteen. And obviously I don't stunning art history books but the president Mike fox it he ended up losing by nearly percent. So there's clearly time for the polls turn around. In reality I would really look towards after the convention. That's when the polls I'm much more talented person who almost always leads apartment goes on the win in the general election. So I would be very you know I would be very cautious about being too much. In. Four we moved to those charts I do want you guys your right next month out how much do these polls matter. Donald Trump isn't the only purse and that brings up polls consistently Bernie Sanders actually at all. If all of his rallies. Says that he does better than Donald against Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton which is true in the polls. I want to ask you guys is that something that matters should that worry Hillary Clinton. And just shifting to the gem for quick action on that is it's so when McCann for Hillary that our conversation you and are we going to pay attention to Bernie. With his plans to go all the way to the convention. Oh. Luxury of not being under a significant amount of scrutiny this election mean don't activity T a lot of things are partly. Immunization policy like adding. He was from the irony is that there were opportunities for Clinton to hit real hard RA has been really really and her home which are in the election of our. And not that he hasn't yet ask like at the same time like. What we're passing years is candidate hasn't really get it under the heat that he would normally he under this kind of match mr. Wright I mean if you. That same Gallup polling nationwide it suggests that about 50% of people would not believed to consider voting for socialist candidate and the Republicans would definitely payment that in you know Bernie Sanders weather and democratic socialists are socialists exactly he's very very close to it. I mean. Look if you go back to 8000 John McCain was doing better than George W. Bush what's in the national polls at this clinic at Al Gore and that was because McCain. You know he's an attack was pretty clear that bush was going to capital company. If you look at Hillary Clinton last time in the 2008. When it was clear that she was going to not be the nominee Barack Obama was a rebound of general election numbers so I mean yet interesting talking point. But let's be real it doesn't matter. Let's move over to the charts. At that will you look you have this great start to come out like as early as we can think right. And we're talking historic levels. Unpopularity. When it comes to these different. Those trump and cleans. Right so when exactly it was an act all the campaigns back to nineteen. Candidates like vote. These are strong. Ruble ratings rumors is that mine is wrong and neighboring at least people who. Pat really really. They really. Hillary Clinton does not normally which had as an equal amount of people who love a candidate in any amount of people who don't of can't. But in this particular campaign news. Forty percentage points more of Americans account from then looked up for. For Hillary Clinton should be the least like the most Qaeda Canada all I'm except for the fact that Donald Trump is on the campaign so it's like. Should she get any more lucky she gets to face a guy Amber Anderson who has done fairly well I mean he's a democratic socialist from parents who you know. Looks like a Jewish grant. I'm and now she's gonna face trump whose idea out reaching annexes re eating tacos. Cell I I mean she will she's historically very much disliked by at this point remembered have to choose between one of the two. And early Clinton is less light and Donald Trump can you just kind of breaking. Down for us and show us what. The different numbers colors mean insurance. Capabilities. And that is why the Democrats like that's Waltz finger not Harry. The big meaty clause and it is. It's the red one is all the Democrat and a Republican nominees over time. Right so Reagan kind of went into this eight in the middle of his term rather well with plus ten X favorable Chris is strong on the right and in George H. W. Bush. Dole right. I'm not discussing it caucus this is why we kind of warn against reading too much and the clear outlines what normal lead the person who is more. Very well liked and disliked goes on. To win in the fall so you eat up Clinton over bush issued at Clinton over dole bush beat gore there that was close Richard B carry Obama McCain. And then Obama beat Romney. So right now if you look at it. Normally the person who's more loved than hated this one goes on to win in the fall and that's the case with Clinton over trump right now but maybe Melinda what did you caucus situation speak in the 88. Whereby in fact the candidate who's more luck. At this point actually goes on we. ABC's Josh Haskell here at 538. I'm behind you with Baltic inherent in we are talking favorability Donald Trump Hillary Clinton's favorability. Not good. All time lows on the zoom in on the chart right now to show you the drop off that they have. As if he cut. Walk us through how low daddy who is more hated Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump. Well it clearly. Trumpet exploit. Well regarded there and it is. Believe that Donald Trump is not particularly well liked by a number of groups. College educated. Black Americans panic Americans. And it turns out that even though Hillary Clinton. Right exactly if you look at this point over fifty for Americans. Strongly unfavorable view. Of Donald Trump. That is dork the lowest number before the cycles are the highest number of strongly and payable was George W. Bush in 2004 with I think 32 point five percentage point on average strongly in April reading. Now from. Strongly in payroll rating averaging 53. So. It's a tough protocol shall act but here's the big question and answer. Favorability. Electability. Kind of let us know how you can look at those numbers and those low numbers and what you take from if Hillary Clinton was like eight an Obama level. Bill Clinton level Mondale level Carter level. It. You'd be clear she probably would have an advantage but because there's so close due to kind of cancel each other out well. Apparently we don't have a tunnels general election polling that was at that we do we only increase outlook we really want to look are now in Utica released today. We want to eat what litigated over arching. Large moving forces that we want to look at the course of not current how we doing and what are the underlying force NASA. Right right so if you look at basically just all of the things are kind of lining up right you see that favorability. Is Heatley had to head match would. Clinton is leading trumpets energy prices she's not as much disliked trumpet and of course. If you look at president Obama's approval rating is now greater than disapproval rating. Jobs reports pretty decent laughs and great but jobs historically have correlated fairly well without the incumbent party. So right now the signals. Favorite Hillary Clinton and a betting markets where people actually their money on she's up by twenty paper but the 25% down from when. Option what else you guys had to show us. Obviously. It wouldn't damn and ordered it down we've got. Tenet still. Has again user roles and in large lead when it comes to be. I don't know actually what they turn things we kind of math are beginning of the how well each candidate would have to do in each primary in order to beat in control or heading on a path to winning the nomination. And these are basically shows that Hillary Clinton where are lying is a Bob Hume will total of what. We would expect her to happen she is running ahead of where she needs to be in order to win the nomination. And it's been fairly consistent over the last few months. And the reason is that Democrats out there delegates proportionally. So unless she gets blown out a contest she's going to maintain. Pretty on the track. Mo in full court motion and that's exactly what she's doing she's on track to capture the nomination on June 7 in the state of California. Any Iran's sit on your right now we have. He's old now and that currently every day or so far as Clinton Scotland at the viewpoint I present to vote. Right and and keep the mind Clinton does not need to win a single thing going on in order to capture the nomination she is that our and it. Bernie Sanders in fact that's the probably went nearby upwards of thirty percentage points. Right now polls do not have that impact they have Clinton and which matches the demographics. They asked a number of well educated white. I Hispanic population and a decent sized African American population which all in all good news for Clinton in order to capture the state account. He. One and blues and Anderson one write. Pretty remarkable. Right you know Bernie Sanders like oh we've won all the states while model line. But recently. He's one or actually they have very small population Vermont Vermont's. Rondo. Domain he's. A large block Clinton's captain York mania. Our states and properly you know on this particular topic. I have to ask you guys. We all our. Nearing the final days but Bernie Sanders does not seem to be going anywhere he'd gotten the convention. Yet you eat into when he wins by 30%. He just let go is California State director clearly doing everything they can pull off big when an air the longer that he stays sane. What does that mean for Hillary Clinton and her campaign. And what is Donald Trump have an advantage of and that department now that he's the only one last. Oh. And remember Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton went down a final Bentley was June 3. And I'm Barack Obama captured the nomination and a board and that he was presumptive nominee. There was all this talk of godly you know the Democrats idea. That the rumors on an and Hillary Clinton endorsed. Barack Obama and while numbers went up four percentage points overnight over John. So I think the real question is whether or not this hurts Hillary Clinton a question is whether or not Bernie Sanders gets. Hillary Clinton want to clearly he has won in. Than this doesn't mean anything however. Bernie Sanders like yeah and that's not. To wrap. Things up. Incident. As these guys are telling us it clearly seems like that favorability. Mom looking solely at Clinton and wrong. Will be will be that we will continue to talk about over the next month arm will voters thirty and her supporters come out. Will they want to participate or they just sort of give up in partake in his movement elsewhere and not voted all your and Republicans. Training including Jeb Bush. On people that ran for president and they're not gonna vote for Donald Trump joke I wanna take that favorability number and let's move to Walt all real quick tip. Show you to 538 newsroom if we walk and we fool. Wall and in theory. Reporters working away here diligently. Good night. But it does not quite as important won't. Oh really does come down I think in many respects set to favorability who comes out in which two candidates that are just like this much. Bring it down for. Well if we look right now from net favorability somewhere along libelous once I can take. I. Yeah yeah. A and we're back guys talked to is about their ability. So we will look right now Trump's net favorability rating is minus forty points. You. Where there. Clinton's minus twenty point act. Historically speaking. If you look these that the strong favorability. Wrong he's a lot. If you look short. And you're plot all over the course and our urgent he added accurate view schools are. And we reply hey this summer my number and humorous thing that. Match the actual results. Micron. And it's our he would generally Adeline. Act like this front line. We're candidate who is better and the candidate who wins and the question borrowers we were saying earlier it whether or not he's not. If they do Hillary Clinton is going to present. Yet or in any case tall and Hillary Clinton or down from somehow miraculously recovers is going to be the next. In many people would say look you've got forty per image unfavorable number for Donald Trump. Qaeda might get worse continues day and you controversial thing. That being dead he won her keys on his way to winning the Republican nomination doesn't he might that is had. Too much off of an effect on four primary. Very different from the general. You know what you're wrong on better if you look at his favorability rating in the primary among Republican primary voters back something like this. Actually plus twenty. Oh this isn't very good electorate. And as long as this electorate in general are a lot more block or a lot more. Postgraduate well educated white people. That this is going to be important you know primary. All but. Well wanna think our friends at 538 for talking to us today aryan all I'm sure I'll will be back will be talking a lot more. Over the next month trying to figure out the madness it has been 26. Thank you guys so much Josh Haskell on and off from 530. Oh.

This transcript has been automatically generated and may not be 100% accurate.

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