Transcript for Reactions to Donald Trump's Performance in the GOP Debate
Awful lot of announcement live to our friends from 538 dot com the statistics gurus. I Harry Antonin Claire Malone are there guys what you think we checked in with you before the debate. What are your takeaways now. Clare take it. Well I think. I think we BO came out that things from this. And I think you nice it has before and we've been sort of live blogging at falling people around him trying to live blog this week. I'm and it it's really starting to be sort of scramble a scrum for that sort of second third place finish. I think that's right I think the main thing that we shouldn't lose track of is that Donald Trump was favored if you look at the 538. Models for instance not from what the favorite heading into this debate and it between 65 and 75% chance when he depending. Which exact orchestra look at I didn't see anything that happens tonight and actually think that Donald Trump isn't going to win on Tuesday he's still a heavy favorite. Right I mean either people like Kate sick people are saying there is a little bit of a bomb that some polls who knows battle there out but. Christie was going pretty hard at Christie case ticket book Charlotte a certain kind of establishment plane or the New Hampshire early if you they're kind of appealing to that sort of independent voter. So I just remind everybody we are down to nine candidates now on the Republican field from seventeen. Originally I'm curious who you think. Might be some of the firsts and maybe bow out in the days ahead. Based on their performance tonight. You know I was thinking before the debate back. John basic thing Chris Christie and Jeb Bush one of those three or two maybe all three of those might drop out. After Tuesday's result. But tonight actually really muddled that because that was based upon the belief that Marco Rubio was going to be able to coalesce that more mainstream conservative vote. And it backed Marco Rubio up flatness face tonight and Chris Christie came with a very strong performance just in case against right there with prevailed applause I'm just not sure. Yeah I would still see that hate sick in and Christiane may be more likely to need to be to drop upbeat force aide Jeb. Bush has a lot of money. He's got Lindsey Graham operation to sort of pick up on the South Carolina lot of connections there so I'd say you know it they've definitely been made more interesting tonight. But I still remain a little bit skeptical about whether or not people stay in past. Past she's day at Hampshire. And I want to ask you guys about about polling and there's been so much chatter about getting too much into the weeds of the technicals of polling but what got me going into the Iowa caucus last week. Almost every poll had trump had trump when he met think I ever you guys projected him to win protector is one. Are we in in New Hampshire any do you see any potential for big surprise that kind of defy the polls here beat Tom. I would save a few things first off in fact every single pole like from winning it wasn't just must go and they all had a morning. But in New Hampshire historically I mean look. Eight years ago Hillary Clinton came into the democratic primary trailing Barack Obama by five plus percentage points every single poll. And then she won by three percentage points Election Day. New Hampshire voters are fickle. We can't be sure from these polls what exactly is going to happen yes we believe that Donald Trump is favored to win. But still he's only 65%. To 75% chance of what that means there's a 25 to 35% chance that somebody else might went. So we just don't know we're gonna have to wait to read the results. On Tuesday night as they comment. Articulating and now. Extra surprise certainly from the experts at 538. All right we'll wait and see along with you guys thanks Harry Serbian them alone for joining us tonight.
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