Transcript for What a tight race in red Pennsylvania means for the 'blue wave'
We're gonna bring back our friend Tommy all of us thought your luck re inviting you back allowed back rectified the I. I'm delighted we're also joined right now by Matthew Dowd and Karen set Meyer as I could but he as Thomas. The so getting wired up here. Mathieu this is looking very close. I think we all expected. There could be some kind of resolution and this will see Garnett the rest of the night but when you read from a base of all we know right now and narrow. A narrow lead it doesn't need to be holding that apparently for I lab. Well I think first it's effective work things here and make a long been an I had doubts carried by nineteen point. That's a lot about the situation and it's going to be buried in the aftermath of this so I think the fact that it this close in a district this Republican. Is the good news for the mr. for the Democrats thought it. There's a lot about standing at work from what I understand a lot about standing vote absentee vote story. An Allegheny County about 4000 votes that are going to be edited building period ended that night. And Allegheny County of the county that looks like it's going. Very well for Connor lamp so I think right now if I had to see a directional signal. An advantage right now I think the advantage slightly to counter lamb at the last result command. Tom what do you think you're out with the candidates the last the last thing herself yeah I don't know it's fundamental to compare to the point succeed election I'm OK a little bit little bit of flashbacks about what's gonna happen at the end here. This because there's like a lot of Republicans in the digital space as well I don't think guys noticed his get have been lied but. And you know what happened the year times site but they removed their meager because one of the county's third got to give the predictable all the boats during an. Which is a lot of drama for this one district one night and we'll see if there's a big surprise at the end. I agree with Baghdad I mean. The momentum and and the energy at least from what I saw be on the ground here. It does favor Connor land at least tonight it's sort of went George Carlin but there's always boats out there it is the boats still and he'd he'd trump county. This puts this school district was considered from country so we'll see what happens I mean parents admire how different is that narrative. If this story is Mexico winning narrowly by the waiter to vs not a lamb when he narrowly appoint or to not talk about any different boats but how different is the story line tomorrow. Yeah it well I I think what you'll find tomorrow on the matter what the results are even it if Rick's. The cone pulled this Alex. The fact that that he underperformed. So much in the county that. What went overwhelmingly for Donald Trump and overwhelmingly for Republicans for the last fifteen years. Will still demonstrate there is a weakness there. In new republic in going into the mid term for Republicans that that that will be the story line no matter whether Rick's. So cold winds or if he loses I think it's a matter of degree. Connor slam win you're going to see Democrats. Very very excited and I think you're going to see republic gains. In these more competitive districts there's only 23 districts that that needs at that Democrats need to take over the house. I think you're next year renewed sense of urgency from Republicans. To protect those those districts where Hillary Clinton. You're one by a few percentage points that like for example out of California there's couple vulnerable them we're. Vulnerable Republicans. I think you're going to see it if Bob Connor lamb does pull this out and win. I think you're gonna see Republicans. Tried to you explain it away but underneath that. There's going to be a lot. Assessment. On what it what do we do what have we stopped a potential movie coming into this into these mid terms and what role will Donald Trump play. That will be key as well. Scott will Donald Trump be an asset or not and I think that that's going to depend on the district because of a Republican can't win. In a district like this with Donald Trump coming in. I think it's gonna be your a rough go come come November. And right now we're seeing. 94% of precincts reporting and it's almost dead even were talking about. Less than a thousand votes separating the two candidates house bill at this and this is desperate. Would have a really good question I wanna get your take as well as Matt doubts take on this and you could argue that since Democrats and Carly and essentially have one and one way. And that is is there a new blueprint for some Democrats. Is this the blueprint to take on Donald Trump I noticed movement can't work in every district all across the country some Democrats have to stay liberal they had to be pure Democrat. What is Carter land that Democrat is that the it's good Donald Trump a candidate who can rise up a few patrolled voters but also the Democrats as well. Matthew what do you think if this is this a formula for Democrats win or lose for Ottawa and. I think it's. Well that worked in Alabama. And now does it work at a governor's race in Virginia and now it's working in and now so far it's working. In Pennsylvania and I think the dynamic is running locally you can't run into local fees here run a local rates. Demonstrate. Who you are in the community what you get what you want to do for the community and don't demonstrated its part. A part of a blue shirt are redshirt but basically they obligated because I'm are represent this community I think debt. Best place this other thing I want had a coming carrot that's. I am a win. Can I even barely Carolina meant that I would argue even barely eluded it is double the number. Of competitive districts after tonight double the number competitive district and all of although new and it districts they're not gonna all be Republican districts. And so when that happened that means the ability for the Democrats to take back the how. After tonight is gonna be much easier because you're gonna have way more district deploy it because that they can win OK can come cloaked in a district. Kerry nineteen point by Donald Trump. It opens up a budget district and I would say a bunch of states that there it. US senate rated period that otherwise Democrats didn't picket the possibility of winning would be opened up after tonight. The formidable be deceived ready when it we should point out is these things bigger role to role it. I think that the rule in Pennsylvania is is within a half a percentage point. If the recount so I don't like say the I do think the point that that that you make solvency of the fort likely. The formula it will be defeated every respect that we could be caught or lamb. Our land is considerably more conservative than almost anyone else's running it it a house race in any part of the country. And also out caught it didn't have to go through. Right here it's gonna see a lot of Democrats in primaries where they may have to attend a little bit more and last in order to win that primary currently did you have. That others may not have sat. Harris admire how do you. Recasts republicans' best team this year win or lose whatever happens we know that's the closely covered up to the wire when Republicans need to do for your goal off the power. It's it. Just suits you capitalize on Macs point all politics local. We oftentimes see that incumbents win that at 95%. Rates are at rates. In congressional races people may say that they don't like congress write congress has terrible. Terrible approval rating not like congress but because that's nationalizing the race but they like their particular congressman. That is been consistent for for decades so. Keeping races local an awful but the type of candidates you have. We've made the point about Connor land being a perfect fit as a Democrat for this specific district he's pro life he's pro gun. He's young he's. Fresh voice and he was able to drop trump a book voters toward him. That which is what's giving him this advantage thus far. Will Republicans be able to shed the national. Stench of the Republican party for some people with Donald Trump at the Helm. If they are in needs competitive districts will they be able to do that and keep it local. That's the challenge at the every single day we have a Kate the chaos chronicles going on in the White House will that be a drag will that be now we'll trough. On these Republican congressional races where they're competitive with with Democrats. I would I would predict yes it's a lot of people don't big big don't wanna see Republican rubber stamping with Donald Trump is doing. So I think for Republicans. They're going to have to you make them. Peter their message to you. Not necessarily make it a referendum about rob make it a referendum on what they're going to do for their districts also. The tax cuts. That is something that the economy is something that hits people their pockets it's tangible they can feel it so but if the tax cuts continue to be successful. And Republicans can can can continue to focus on that. That is something that will help them. And you know. As long as the Donald Trump distractions don't happen but interestingly in this race initially they were running ads. Touting the tax cuts but as they sought the Collins momentum starting to slip. And Connor land starting to gain. They went back to their bread and butter and meat and potatoes up immigration to get people energize it riled up to go to the to go to the vote that are running at about Sanctuary Cities in Pennsylvania but without an interesting turn because they saw that that's what gets people energized. In the Republican base. So. We'll see how they it is different different tactics in different districts I think keep it local actually went. I'll have a yeah. I would but Britain and an article later points earlier that's what kind of talk about potter land is sort of only Democrat of sort of running this way. If that is the argument here how can we even say that this is gonna be a Bellwether for the rest of the mid terms that that. Isn't that a false argument if it's harder when it's two different kind of Democrat how can we table this is gonna it'd be a precursor to the rest of the bees from races. Yeah that's a bracelet he's benefited from a lot of the deep into the energy at such up without being the anti talk Matthew if that's the death you. Your guy from Texas you know a lot about red state politics knows what they politics but that's against the U. This Democrats and need to fight it's different that's equivalent instead while Krakow that got back. I think that there's still a blue ways I think there's still a huge anti vote Sunday keep in mind it to the district. That Donald Trump won by nineteen points. And not yet stated local to win the last of those percentages but keep in mind there's a huge energy and enthusiasm. Of the folks that are posted Donald Trump that are showing up going to be candidates have to figure out a wake him up one make it local. And to demonstrate how they're gonna hold Donald Trump accountable in big at the month and the years go ahead so I think. There there our president's job approval number is very indicative of what's gonna happen and amid chart at the president's jobs well number X remain low. It tells of a lot about what's gonna happen in November. It's bad as he watched the returns come in and if you're looking at every gets happens over the last couple of weeks here. Savior right next to Joseph Biden right now when you're with reading easier you're working for him so what would you tell him tonight about this race and about his political future. Well I would say that it can't hurling missiles that fat Joseph Biden. Dot what Philip Audi how's it gonna go up more I would say yes I'd joke like he's doing what you're doing. And don't make a decision on runner for president don't opt out and don't not in yet because it did Joseph Biden. We'll have demonstrated he's one of the few Democrats. I can still win. In the each candidate jurisdiction but you have to win to win the Electoral College. You have to win Pennsylvania after when Michigan. You have to win Wisconsin and Joseph Biden right now if that Connor lamb folded out it's one of the only national candidate. It looks like they can win this. All right Natalie we're gonna we're gonna keep its right here because we are seeing a lot still coming in than you think hit it. Absentee ballots. There about 4000 of them that we don't that it is that it has now filed here Pennsylvania dotted the account again. Zero of them have been counted so. We could have the potential we see these markets that it now that both some of the be counted tonight some tomorrow it's Kabila lives once again we are delighted habits or check your watch. We have or even I don't know when I was I was thinking about. I'd know what you said its earlier conflict with what you think they're gonna pull this race and we look we were sort of like in the reds around 10 o'clock yeah a lot later than. That all right well we are your 10 o'clock am an axiomatic here because.
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