Trump Interrupts To Point Of Chaos In 1st Debate | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast

The crew reacts to the first 2020 presidential election debate.
36:44 | 09/30/20

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Transcript for Trump Interrupts To Point Of Chaos In 1st Debate | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast
Hello and welcome to this week night reaction condition of the 530 politics podcast ideal and through. We've just wrapped the first 20/20 presidential. Debate between trump and -- and and white much of the term presidency. It was norm pre. During large portions of the debate trump prevented the pre agreed structure of the debate from happening. Interrupting Biden and the moderator Chris Wallace. The president's broad conspiracy theories including about the integrity of the election and again did not agree to a peaceful transfer of power. He also declined condemn white supremacist groups telling one white supremacist group to stand back and stand by. We all just live blog this to be and so we were dealing with the irregularities audit. In real time people can read those and 530 dot com but here too podcast our reactions as well. Our editor in chief Nate Silver Haney. They won't. Alter your it's in politics writer Clare Malloy on declare the and managing editor Mike a coward and Micah. Hey Gayle and everybody. So I don't have any particularly pointed questions out of the gate but I am curious to you get your reactions to what we all. Just watch Nate if you wanna tickets are. I wasn't surprised by it. It seemed to reflect a lot of things the president has said in recent days it seemed to be a lot of his. Inner monologue. But he's seen as Twitter feed some times. It seem like the strategy of it. Of a candidate who isn't happy with his position in the race. Was also not surprised that. Joseph Biden and I think with super sharp especially in the first half the debate although it but he did equated it betters in the debate. He seemed at times a little bit. Rattled. Buy nothing of the kind that can cook a complete his thoughts. Although he adjusted to it a little bit. I'm not surprised at trump. Refuse to kind of denounce. White supremacy and not surprised that trump refused to kind of say he would respect the results of the election. I'm not surprised that trump was. Not talking to people in the audience or at home the kind of again engages and head space and not surprising he. Attack the moderation I'm not surprised that there was. This kind of both sides is an from a lot of commentary afterward. I'm not sure it's really expecting about I don't think any that was surprising given the campaign in the presence of a witness for four years. It's exactly eight I mean here if you're any kind of paying attention to the news or to Twitter everything that trump said he said before. With I guess the exception of lake that the in the moment jabs against Biden. I think that the big thing that people's. Watching at home will probably take away from it is just. Chaotic. In politic on a personal conversational level that that that the debate. Why does that mean it was just to wryly. Key attic thing to watch. It was hards particularly the first half to get any kind of sense of what either that we're trying to say because China was interrupting so much Terry in bide his time and his mates at Biden. You know wasn't completing thoughtful thought because trump was there an off within her options. Bike towards the second half of the debate kind of started to just missing quirky way. Speak to camera a kind of laugh at comfortably win with along with frankly moderate the moderator Chris Wallace ever trump would erupt. But it was. Just like. Kind of devolved spectacle. And sort of bazaar to watch frankly pan. It it just felt like Mary. I think you know. We were all probably talking for years the same time about. How unnerving and weird today. That's when he sixteen debates where when trumpet and a whole different law are six billion up 26 team presidential debates. We're more or less activity it's great regret at this point look wasn't pretty. Yeah out because of the interrupting. That was owed sort of there were a lot of it I think pieces about that menacing body language of trump vs you know when he kind of keep on Hillary Clinton. This was just flat out. The first twenty minutes where an incoherent couldn't figure out what they were talking about Chris Wallace asking him to take it seriously talked about. I mean it was it was honestly does like the weight Wallace was treating trump was. Lee. Bananas and we got some substantive stuff like. I remember everything that was sad thing. I said you're the worst president America ever had trump said something about don't comics don't talk about Smart around me you're just a lot of weird. Stuff. Yes so let me throw a man throw it in the spirit of the evening a few kind of unrelated takeaways. But not doing quickly. So I think that making making get them quickly. I make be grasping referred for something new to say that I do think that trump. And a comparison to 2016 debates. Bears this out I believe I do you think trump. Is some more. Iraq Beck. More willing to break with norms less concerned about what's quote unquote expected. And I'm. Then he has been. At earlier points. And key difference between now and 2016. He's president. So it puts in an entirely different contexts but but I do think tonight's debate made clear that. That. He's is back is against the wall and rather than tried implement the strategy to come back he's just kind of Fong is his gut instinct. Cut that. The stuff at the end about the results of the election. I think that's where that's where trump and Biden's styles and it kind of came out. Most starkly where Biden and it did again this look to camera kind of soothing voice about. Your votes will count make sure you vote I'll accept the results the election if I win early news. You can't look at coherent. Thing which you obviously practiced conveniences and happen. And trumps was. You know. I think Wallace said Lee you'd make sure the years we tell your supporters to accept the results the election peacefully and trump had trouble. You know answering that fed the line from Wallace I mean it was it was the softest of soft balls and he couldn't answer that and it was just such. It was so stark. It's dark and it and that's what I was thinking up in particular players like that part woods was really scary. And just a couple more thought I would I would echo Whitney ten at the top I thought Biden was. A lit all off balance for the first twenty minutes I think he got better at as the debate went on I thought his best moments were when. He just spoke straight to camera LeClair was describing. And and probably gave us a much rehearsed answer but at least it was like. You know as a viewer you're sort of just like. Grasping for any full sentence right that's like what you wanted to hear so those moments I think. I think we're as his better moments and then finally. In on the moderation. Moderation of the APEC response was with. May be to me the most interesting part just in the sense that the rest of it was such an amass. By you know part of that. Wallace really broke with kind of norms. In response to trump breaking with norms to try to keep trump from. Further derailing the whole thing. Chuckle out of character. But that it didn't in the news Catholic I feel it you could see another network newscaster kind of doing the news Caster is there weren't that kind of tried. You know right end and loss was kind of just like. Almost commiserate and with Biden at points about like yeah that keep like it's I'm having trouble keeping up my cell public it was just that opponent that was so who. Different. And it took and it took him it took him too long to get there although years you know I've I'm sympathetic like. You know it's obviously and that's somewhat new situation. But eventually did get there any and he was he was fairly aggressive in. In calling out trumped in particular and not resorting to which he did a couple times but then largely stayed away from. Just like both sides. I think the American people want them more substantive debate are gentlemen if you could not right he seem he largely avoided that. In in regards to an eruption ends but then there were a lot of questions. Which were like both sides. Does like worst parity of both sides journalism where like that doesn't bode election integrity questioned in particular there. Is that with sort of a silly framing has as both sides as if but candidates present. Equal threats to an election integrity. Micah I was wondering during that segment if it was wrong to even count that as a debate topic because it provides the opportunity to spread misinformation. About the voting process. Which could be deleterious to. Our democracy right like if the thing isn't. Up for debate right like if we either kind of how to democracy where we respect riddle results of an election or we don't like why. Kind of give people the opportunity. To you undermine the legitimacy of the election. One it was weird and then you look there are like legitimate questions and concerns about how the country. And how fifty states and DC. Are gonna which just two. Largely male and election. In a time of corona virus. The problem is I don't think the debate with the right time to sort of adjudicate those questions and concerns caused renewed that's not what was gonna happen and and and even trying to get to those concerns but I think it's what law Wallace with trying to do. As you say Galen just provides a platform. For these baseless conspiracy theories about about rigging the elections so it it I think it was a misguided. Topic from the began. Our innate we've mentioned that this was was pretty different from 2016 but you were starting to say that were missed remembering what happened back patents or how does this compare to you know kind of conversation and we are yours. Yen in the estimates for total. Shows to process podcasts. You know ends. I don't think they're particularly Maurer. Traditional Anita truck kind of stalking Clinton around the stage your trump likening yeah I don't really think this is that much of it. A difference from between sixteen except trip this kind of not really you can kind and maintaining the pretense evicting a regular debate but he didn't really give that much of that anyway in 2016 I mean here's. It we know what this president now as a candidate for six years roughly. Candy and our president for six years now right prison trying to. Like noticed from this comes out of left field you know what I mean do we all think they're just gonna kind of come back to normal now that column I mean. Up but it's what Gwinnett resident. Right I mean it's well it's still are deceived but a point of comparison would be the Republican National Convention we roll just watched and corporate and for example it is final formal acceptance night's speech. Where is just kind of I mean it was often the teleprompter obviously but it was a kind of very very very very tempered version Donald Trump into their armaments. When tens of millions of people are actually watching where we get a different version of trop. And one that's not completely off the rails like tonight. I completely take your point that you know people should net should be. Surprise that it was erratic and that 2016 was you know its own kind of unconventional debating. I think I would say that there just. Trump is facing two different opponents so with Clinton. If he did the first I think that Patton. He interrupts Biden in part probably because Biden does have. A history of a stutter and you know Nathan Heller who's a writer for The New Yorker who also has a stutter. Tweeted out and said that's actually a thing that like throws people stutter sometimes right especially if you're you're constantly interrupt it's like that's a good tactic perhaps. If your trump and you're in debate with Joseph Biden. The other thing is 2016 trump used you know there's a different dynamic between a man. Interrupting constantly a woman IE the trump. Clinton dynamics I think it would have read differently and it's more kind of it reads that terror I guess. If trump is kind of constantly interrupting Biden there like it's just kind of like these two were seeing the two different. Baton strategy is for the two different candidates at trop faces but the energy is. Chaotic in both. And in both debates. OK guys we got an aid. Site says this is a bit of the last time but I am. Week a instant poll from CBS news who won the debate. Need I think you've seen these numbers have declared Gayle annual contest just the results truck Ike who I'm guessing one of the elite art march. Is is CBS. This is that's scientific poll. Out as the scientific poll idea it's not a clicker. It's not a Clinton. Claire asked Biden. I think still. Trump. Did they ask for perceptions of it I'm gonna go where it. There were enough commentators on Twitter and media on some of the news networks that were calling trump the alpha in the room. That people like that dominating era. You. Galen is over thinking it 48% died in 41%. Drop although the exact pulls basically. Yeah yeah but that's important right because you know I think we also this already but. Trump was losing this race so you know a clutch. If that's what that says. Is that it is. Apparently a win for pot. Yet and its exact margin see the poles and and if Biden maintains that. And seven. Point lead through Election Day and then there's also quote from where they larceny percent to ninety. Some percent still rather have a slip on Election Day obviously have to worry about. We'll talk. Respect the results of what that means. Tactically here's a traditional how do you Electoral College strategy. And in this debate was one of the more important many opportunities for trump then apple was suggesting he didn't really take. We get to see where polls and that was instant polls differ from. Post debate polls sometimes when the reaction it's baked and people see clips is up like that and small league flips a smile turns into a big lead comes off reinforcing right. And I went particularly. Well for trauma. Yeah I'd it is important to reiterate why use that I was looking out a political science study done around the 2004 presidential debates and it showed. They took. Basically an audience in the show them that it be and then gave them to different forms of analysis afterwards. One group saw the debate and an NBC's live action and then and other groups ought to be an and read CNN on line coverage. And the two separate groups came to different conclusions about who won the debates in an on line was the Kerry won and you see it live analysis was that bush had won. So you know the press obviously plays a role in how this is all perceived. We haven't seen a ton of what the press conference looks like so far but what can we tell from how it's being covered. I mean I don't think there's a clean enough narrative coming out of the dip the two really. Pushed those numbers meaningfully one way or the other like that. Strongest takeaways and that's in a cross news outlets coming out in debated says that was a mess. And I'm not sure that really affects time those who he thought whine are we thought. Loss right it was just like that was a massive self evidently mass. Isn't idle little bit for. Poll citing the situation then the reality I mean like I hopes to make clear at the top of this podcast like. There's wasn't exactly like a two way street on the kind of likes cats growing. It's its definitely yes more both sides he then the truth which is that you know present trump made this mask sprayed. But my point is just that light. Dip there I'd at least not that I'm seeing clan made to jump in but I don't think there are like. I actually haven't seen that much of that light. Vote Biden wasn't enough of an off a war or any of those taped the story lines and I don't think there were any clips. Biting and in particular. That would that would get replayed it played that would kind of change the fundamental all this thing was. Isn't that a change that trajectory of the ratings right. I think partly what happens things at that narrative gets that. First fifteen minutes. And her cuteness oh series. Should be. I didn't see little off balance. This from said that as mower. Dangerous team in the second. And I just the scene of these debates were like if you are kind of watching twittered this where there its form squares off social excellent. Journalists on what I learned that in the first. Twenty minutes was founded. No trouble and has them off the council than any dividends alone hostesses. Any. And dandy and it's like Oprah has written to help themselves right but like. But like the first that tends it filtered believes. News organizations right. Morton water here it's Wright's initial weight like Oprah as well balanced and it's partly to interact about a all remaining two thirds of it what purpose would that invite was fine right arm. But you know just as an observer of problems that users will. Sort of talking a lot of our trump performance this evening in one notable thing when it comes two year. Biden and his coalition is how he responded to questions of our. Things like quirk packaging or ending the filibuster or the green new deal. He essentially. Didn't mean he said he does not support the green new deal but he didn't want to answer questions are packing war ending the filibuster and can you just make it to election today. By by never answer in those kinds of questions. Probably. There's so much news and trump tends to want to damage is like the metro on me problems today at this point given. Coded in the new economy was in court 80 spurt in Spain port obviously right. If truck try to actually drive. Mitt by an answer for this thing. News cycle maybe he could do it any dozens of their interest and and that. I think the one thing that trumps team will probably. Take away from tonight and mean Younis. You suck trump in the moment reacts to being something. In the climate change section about the film ever be another coal plant. Coal powered plant built in America and trump says though you know. Outer agritech it would be injected but you know. I'm sure they'll be ads made off of that you know Biden. Hates coal and you know what is against American. Industry. That you can see little things that they that they might title like. Pick off but I think somewhere around the closing statements. I Disney news kind of sweeping argument about 206000. Americans are dead coded. It's trumps faults and two around. Went into it is I've appointed more federal judges. Then anyone else and it was kind of like it's weird. For me moment of trump was kind of making like. Conventional. What it code that had never happened and we have the 20/20 election argument right like I'm good for her you know. Restoring the and the conservative bent or that you know balancing outs. Judicial system in America and Biden was making. Were in a catastrophic moment closing plea and it was kind of this. Off kilter. Experience I thought it as as a viewer. It it's tough it's really liked I think act world service struggle to cite how. How to respond to something. Like what we just watched it's this really weird mixture. Not surprising says it is it is not as on a ton new to say you know trump. Declined to condemn white supremacists at sun from. You know worries eased spears readers about the I am. About mailed ballots then and that meant to peaceful trance transferred power that's not. But yet it still should I think it's still shocking to see and even if it's not surprising him. And I think it's those today Adam. I think it but I think it should be shocking. But I don't know I you know. There's two minorities. Are yeah. Actually it its just its act I mean it's so. It's so damaging. Just just for her whatever it nineteenth at Tarrant award for the discourse but just a it was just so weird and they were so many things happening and the tenor that was gross. And there is so much like. The section on masks. And forced fires in climate change there's still a lot of just broad misinformation. That facts and a couple of times that kind of wish wallets and followed up and some of those easy low hanging tree. Fact checks with tram. A Padgett live Alec mask wearing. Adam. I like. Teddy two more those in the next month is. I I don't I don't really know how. Or else people are watching this from other countries are eight and like it's not a great look for her the US to have the presidential. Election become. This you know prime time spectacle of conflict just completely bizarre misinformation. Like to act take keep things that line is my friends for attacks and that's like. Why are the you know they have figured out how to meet people on our round the horn which is like that sports that they Shana from our colleagues that he is the end. Like why can't they do it for presidential debate that might be worth exploring. But between that essentially I don't think and and this came out before the debate where. I'm. The people organize the dupage and I think losses this too they were like it's not the moderator stopped to FactSet right. If you are willing to into rocked nonstop. And are willing to lie nonstop. In the debate is. It breaks the debate. That's my question. Actually mica do you think that after this to be. Divine campaign just says what were not interested in any more debates like if you can't actually agreed to. Or to actually follow up on the pre agreed structure of the debate which is that people can talk for two minutes. And then you have kind of a more freewheeling back and forth. And are tied it just bank the Biden campaign says. Were beating seven points nationally we're not really been struggling in the battleground states at this point like. No. For example now now may what do you think. Yeah for civil. Bears is clear premise and like. Somehow this it is. Hurting rioting when I don't know that's true and in fact they only focus of course just by in one although my dousing marking U boats in Dallas. The promise of my question it was more kind of like it was so bad and it was so chaotic that like. If the message is going to be that trumps not following the rules of the debate anyway why not our righteous. I mean are our friends at that. Talking politics podcast that you can't tightness. What are had a great quote the millions from music guest and may be totally mystery witness the to get access it from. Where they're like. You know win. When you press. Hard on democracy right when it starts today and then. It's a repair effort is now. Does it snapped back right that sometimes at moments. I wish to box he seems to be in the greatest danger to moments where. It proved itself president's old church to. I if you're worried that front as anti democratic. And institutions responded by a the voters. Vote for the candidate don't think he's anti democratic write in Biden has a huge lead among. Independent voters right now who might that he is partisans of voters and independents like when he points. BE if the court system responds by. Rejecting what is he is anti democratic. Challenges from truck or by for that matter but more curtly by trial. Not just the usual and litigating about like Cain and Unix and now it might seem like you know if they respond negatively to efforts by prompting kind of permit mass numbers of ballots from being counted right. So. You can't kind of presuppose demise of democracy if democracy at the first chance they guests. As a one term president so far. Responds by rejecting appeals anti democratic impulses. Wright. You can predict that it will respond well I'm not sure of the polls you are believed them bear that out but like. Initially can be written. Yet when this is patently and it Chancery and by the range when he threw Robbins. Of the house by a pretty big margin so in Salina I don't a lot of governorships and possible senate seats. I think that that's I've totally fair point Nate and I think it's it's worth keeping in mind in these last few weeks but just as. We can't presuppose that the the that democracy is a brutal way gets Claire added that that won't break I don't think we presuppose that it's a supple. Perch there birch. Birch branch. Like this just too many. Think there's too many cracking sounds. Tippy tippy really confident of anything. I. But friends across the ocean who have a. I don't know how we would describe. And the British. Help of the British just ran. Civic light but an eagle out at the aid is also. Quite broken. Now I notice they had quit and let it slide in the past you know fifty years. Don't don't throw supple birch branches last processes and a. Not items I'm speaking from a point of like. Carrey business in in the US partly. Again the fifty years slide of the United Kingdom days. Notable. You mean decline generally not decline in democracy. Make that lead to an option shares that people look at Yad general decline. Which I think has not just talk and that all I'm saying that it was a system with problems and also by the way you could argue that lake. A lot of people in the commonwealth didn't have. Healthy democratic rights right it is lots. Yeah you're right Diane. It's up by collateral and it leave the Irish lady wants to talk about the common well. This news. Accounts and Indian and Pakistani. Kim legal tactic beyond question that just for once I can let. I don't think the fighting camp Tambo. Pull out the remaining two days. But. The reason maybe it's worth. And then having an internal discussion about it or maybe conductance of Poland about it is. And I think we knew this going into the debates. I thought Biden did fine that on Tuesday. This the other two debates still represented basically only downside for them. And Trump's behavior in the first debates. In the first the date gives the campaign a credible excuse. To pull out of them if they want him now. Maybe pulling out its night more terrorists has more downside risks and staying and but but it's an I don't know it's an interesting question. We should fix their remaining two debates now how do we fix them okay moderator has a mute button they can be either it's what else. Well yeah. I mean the campaigns agree to these rules right. Fact checking. I think campaigns agree that you can't have your button under Al you can do that right I'm. I don't think the carpet and agreed that whoever who who it was he's declared those who said. Biden has a stutter and maybe they're deliberately trying to rattle him. I think especially in the first. Fifteen minutes for trouble just feel like I'm gonna filibusters you could not actually string a coherent. Set of thoughts together I seem pretty deliberate chimney and then eventually. That order then we're kind of realize like this wears thin after fifteen an answer. Chris Wells and in some control. All right it's that format. The moderator sep one of the candidates is Donald Trump right. Enlists could have won against Donald Trump and it's really an ethics problem and I guess if you actually editing button. And that with sixty rob but because he's doubtful he's not been agreed to. If you had a new I would have a new. And then I would have an army a fact checkers working inside and outside. And huge screen. In back of the candidates. And any time any of them set something that was not true. Huge red acts would appear on screen along with a giant buzzer sounds. And the mute button with. That's how I would fix the debates. It's like India and borrowers and administering. I think that respect but but but. It would be just it might be equally at this time it is that if the market destruct in a more illuminating way that. Also become a coolest thing. Hey I. Don't local real impacts a community. And I think it makes immediacy must neutral but has. Means it's at all minute conversation like. I think if candidates like. Hell hole lies in response to a direct questions maybe we'll different you can actually does Mr. President all right but they're going on and on. Down the road going back in order enlightening and also he did not think that president from is honest. Echelon insights is an excellent especially sensitive also were released and his passes for each can you can pick an excellent three and that we meet up lots right. And for truck number one issue is that we don't think he's straight. And so you know. We trust says something in Biden says something the average voter tends to trust by the boards are reasoned that by and leads in polls and like. A he said she say we're trump is just and it rehearsing his track talking points since he said. I am. And we'll see this one also are at the be more. Polls of debate watchers including our poll it. Also watch for that. All right and it also say it's almost Wednesday Cerro we should wrap things but very quickly. Does this change. The dynamics of the race at all in the polls. Yasser. No. Clear. Now. Nate. Now but then again time isn't on here because if it. If we don't have a two weeks and Bynum maintains the same lead them that's good about. Are well. We will see what happens maybe after all that's. It won't matter nothing world changed. But any part that you guys and eight Claire my trip it's been rail. Can I just give a quick chat that to our the debate live blog team calmed expertly by politics editors are Protestants and I thought it was probably our best live blog. For debate at fair. Full of analysis and data and charts and Smart commentary. And funny comments. Shadow to a job well done from the from the whole team. Including the people on this podcast all of you. Indeed we also are actually have one more thing it's a shout out which is that. We have the fight that it store up and running whereas new merchandise including. T shirts with Friday's fox on on I think might be authorities picked to teach. I did I freaked him out these T shirts. There are 35. The fox T shirts is that right our rooms listening to the podcast. And yes my limits us in the podcast they agree he should go get them. I think he just turned 530 dot com slash store and. And yeah. Are well let's leave it there my name is dale hunter attorney chow is in the virtual control room you can get in touch right emailing us at pod cast at 530 dot com you can also of course greeted us with any questions or comments if you're a fan of the show because of rating or the apple podcast store. Or tell someone about us you can also follows and YouTube thanks for listening animals news. And yeah. I.

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