Transcript for ABC/WaPo poll: Dems hold 8-point lead over GOP nationwide in House races
It feels like a presidential election Americans are engaged passions high early voting through the roof and president trump is campaigning as if you were on the ballot. One way yes if Democrats win the house or the senate Tuesday night trump will wake up to a very different presidency Wednesday morning. Our brand new ABC news Washington Post poll shows a president coming in of these mid terms with the lowest approval of any president since Harry Truman. He's at 40% with 53%. Disapproving of Charles performance. The president's average approval since inaugurations the lowest on record and 59%. Of likely voters say it's important to them to vote for a candidate. Who shares their opinion of trump. That is fueling a democratic advantage was forty yards to go democratic house candidates lead Republicans by eight points among likely voters 52 to 44. But that is down from thirteen points last month. The Republican base is clearly re energized in the wake of the Kavanagh hearings and the democratic advantage among women especially independent women is shrinking. On the issues Republicans have an edge on handling the economy. Democrats have an advertising on health care they have an advantage there. And as president tram trains his fire on that migrant caravan. Our poll shows split views 47% trust Democrats to handle immigration but voters trust Republicans by a ten point margin on border security. We have a lot of analysts here with our team won a suburb and her chief national affairs correspondent Tommy Ellis Tom we're going to be (%expletive) focusing Tuesday on two key members of two numbers we show. Right there are 23 and two. The house changes hands the Democrats pick up 23 seats in the senate Democrats would need a net gain to sheets to change control. And those played those races Yiddish are taking place on two very different battlegrounds let's start with a. House that's right George so we're tracking all the house races but we've identified more than 100. Competitive house races these are the congressional districts and you can see they stretch all along the map what are we seeing here were seen congressional districts that are part of suburbs and excerpts and we see some clusters in the northeast or watching New York Pennsylvania Florida. Virginia but will also watch and some red states Kentucky Kansas Texas and and a blue state of California we're tracking nearly a dozen races we've taken all these competitive races and we look. A lined up like this horrible call an art ship port. A line of bite the way polls are closing remember that he number you were talking about George 23 that's how many seats Democrats have to flip. And they may have advantage historically we've never seen a democratic battleground this big and there's a couple of reasons a quarter of these districts. Hillary Clinton actually won but Republicans hold power in other Republicans were retired and even more Democrats are generally excited about their candidates Georgia senate exactly the opposite. A completely different story in the senate let's take a look at that now we flip over there are battleground board over here. We take a look at all the blue these are all the democratic seats were tracking 35 races let's go to the map right now. These are all the senate races but we've identified. Fourteen key races remember George as you said the Republicans have an advantage of two seats here but there are a lot of seats that Democrats hold in Missouri. Indiana. And North Dakota this was trump country. And they have a democratic senator but there are some races were Democrats feel they be headed binge because of Republican retirements in Tennessee and Arizona will be watching all those George. Modesty so watch want to bring in Nate Silver also from 530 alienate your forecast looking ahead. Identities and IP much mirror what we're seeing on those maps let's over the house yeah after sheriff's a look at who's playing defense and how much defense they're playing so in the house we have Democrats with about. A four in five chance of winning the house the national polls are pretty good for Democrats the district pools or are very good for Democrats they're pretty deep into red territory. In the senate it's the reverse where we have the GOP with a six and seven chance of holding on armed. Democrats are playing a lot of defense and say said they currently hold the terrain there is extremely red. So again polls aren't always right if polls are right you would have a split outcome who polls aren't Rand Paul's late polls had a wide margin Barrett Rick Klein is in our political director. In part because this race is very hard to model the turnout. For mid term election. That's exactly right at 52448. Points is exactly where Democrats need to be bread on the cusp of where they need to be to be able to say that they have a good shot at taking the majority. If you narrow it down to the battleground districts you've got only a five point edge so that's where the majority is either going to be. Won or lost. And Democrats are are depending on groups that don't typically turnout in mid term elections bottom line George. They need to devote we're talking about younger voters were talking about nonwhite voters. Right now they're telling pollsters that they are likely to vote in unprecedented numbers but that just hasn't been a history the need those folks a show up. Hey let's educate voters little bit on probability is wrong trying to learn lessons chief has a sixteen I think going into the 2016 election. Your forecast was actually lower than many others on projecting whether Hillary Clinton went about 71. Percent we learned that wasn't sure thing here your up about 85% for the Democrats taking the house massages explained breakdown statistically with them. It's so what are. Forecasts accounts force a chance at polls will be wrong and you see how big of a lead a party hats and how much uncertainty there is in the forecast armed. The range of outcomes in the house is is really why are range which covers 80% of outcomes goes from on the low end. About fifteen democratic pickups all the way up to that to low to mid fifties to teach your 53. Most those are above 23. Which is how many seats they would need to take the house spotlight but no one should be surprised if they only when nineteen seats and no one should be surprised if the only if he'd win. 51 seats those are both extremely powerful based on how accurate polls are the real world and one of the big X factors you've written about this year is and usually. For mid terms Democrats actually have a huge fundraising advantage in the final. It's become a fund receive Barrett to so one thing we don't know about is there are lots lots of districts on on the board. Where there are Republican incumbents in seats that are ordinarily safe and they might not have been aware of the fact that -- a Democrat who's raised. Twice as much money they're voters are very enthusiastic. They might be turning ambler who don't normally vote at mid term so there are a lot Republicans who will not be sleeping well. Tonight and tomorrow night and that's why if Democrats beat their poles that can happen happen in Virginia the governor's race last year. Then we're talking about really big numbers so both ends of that range the Republicans on the house. And the deal landslide if he will I mean that's as good as we can do based on how accurate polls are the real were.
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