Transcript for FiveThirtyEight: Iowa caucuses wrap up
Harry Claire momentous evening tonight. One man when rather loud screaming and one Iowa Caucuses that it was not Donald Trump. The way you beat somebody who's all out winnings to make him a loser. And that is why couldn't understand why before of course Dallas from figures were all going. Tell you have to secure especially with the way rubio did tonight you know this not token actually beat expectations and he almost finished in second place. Because polls by six or seven points. Yeah and it turns out that those final polls that had come in at the last minute which showed it tight three way race. Which showed rubio rising which may not come from pulses with the passage sort of map that's. Right yes yes I don't get people online are like oh my gods is such an error for the polls like you know actually this is pretty par for the course if you pay attention incorrectly. To how well primary and caucus polls do. It's pretty rough sledding you also saw some polls that came pretty close to this result. But bull I I was worried coming and I that you have. Trump for Bernie your crews are Hillary win by twenty points or something here Ben Carson for a nation in third place crystal. Was surprised me actually sort of you know I think I think previous or if we'll take you know sort of treat his victory speech. For third through the I think isn't coming. What's it truly is this seems like actually fairly. Spontaneous rubio had a fair amount of advertising in Iowa but what else getting a lot of opposing. Advertising in high winds really came in at the end and said we do not like Donald Trump in the end these high favorable for rubio in and increasing the matter of factly people in Iowa it half the voters in Iowa and the seltzer poll did not like Donald Trump. The key for rubio was he was able at least some part to repeat Romney's success. College yet you see the map here. And not that many counties to Greene counties are. Our rubio counties that looks like some weird. Mash up of of Santorum. Romney mapped where like I'm not quite sure we're down companies the most the Ron Paul. Of the race but what do theory is that we had. Early on. Is that Donald Trump was a factional candidate who like many other factional candidates. In Iowa could get a quarter of sometimes that the news states and of the dozen but you know. If all of a sudden we we cast trump is a guy who's just kind of impact he can in. Ron Paul fringe candidate. The minute riff looks fairly normal right if he is gonna not get more than twenty point 5% maybe 30% 35% down a couple of southern states but that's nothing amazing as it. If nothing in the actual votes that have been canceled are sick agenda this race has anything. But normal via but I mean no matter what he sort of change the tenor of things and I think that that will sort of whoever how whatever happens trump I think that Apple's day. Enough about the GOP you also have a democratic race that. Is literally. Too close to call for taping asleep at night I think it's O point two percentage points. Kerry you're sweating the details. Clear. I'm guessing you and I are more aligned here where this is basically it a tie right here. It is I think it is even though Clinton sort of have this. Calling and non victory victory speech or she came out beforehand and said. Thanks to Iowa. And she sort of trying to light breeze on it. It probably is its high I think we were you know that the tide might still means Republican good thing for Hillary in an okay thing for Bernie but. She still I believe correct me if I'm wrong gifts. Will take the dealt more delegates than he but. There's another way in which a tie is helpful Clinton right. I mean basically. We know that Bernie Sanders needs to win a state that looks like Iowa demographically when each. That's right if you waste of this from the get go so. In a back in July we rank the states in terms of how they really are Bernie Sanders and Iowa's. Was at third or fourth and a very fair fair it right next to Vermont to new captures two. So you know the question is if you can tie in Iowa they're probably forty states that are worse for you and I anyway and so I don't know I think we've seen some. More diverse states vote if Clinton loses Ohio. You know share. But I I think that the question now is most ruler expecting that Sanders will go and and we New Hampshire then the race will pivot to. South Carolina but before that the states that initials R&B which are not as pronounced as John Ross when I'm me. But if she wins in those two states which is expected this point. And tonight. Well really the better. You know crystal. And a half hour.
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