FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: Impeachment is becoming more popular

The FiveThirtyEight crew looks at how much public opinion on impeachment has changed, and given Elizabeth Warren’s rise in recent polls, when it might be fair to consider her the front-runner.
52:32 | 10/01/19

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Transcript for FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: Impeachment is becoming more popular
My name is. Watching the called hot passed. In. In this edition we look at the latest polling on whether or not Americans are interested in an impeachment inquiry or eventually impeaching the the president drop. We also ask is based on the latest democratic primary polling Elizabeth Warren is now the front runner. You're watching the 530 politics podcast on ABC news law. I am back from the occasion and hand before I began I wanna say thank you to Iran who helped out and worked overtime while I was away last week. Under the new cycle was crazy some fee due to our intern Jake are low tar each how in the control room. Deputy editor Chad Matt when you guys got to meet. Mann editor I was funds have to have intent on his it was. And of course Mike Andy and Clara thanks to you guys for pumping out the re podcasts last week. Yeah they Q I I guess the lesson as I'll never go on vacation again. We have a running joke in the office when people went on vacation that we woods' day. If the president is impeached we're gonna call you back from vacation. But for some recently and claw it back may wish had a government while I honestly I did look up how much like an earlier flight would cost but I think guys are one thing I was crazy actually did and here it was like prohibitively X. I think if you were vacationing domestically. We would have considered it smaller but that you're overseas. You know that's a bit much. Are anyway thank you for letting me it live out my vacation in. While some keys I was reading the news the entire week but anyway. It has been almost a week since speaker Pelosi announced a formal impeachment inquiry based on president's prompt pressuring Ukraine. To investigate the Biden's and the Democratic Party. Today we're gonna take stock of how much public opinion has changed in a week and what it tells us about the wrote a hat. Also don't you could be forgiven if you forgot that the Democratic Party is in the middle of a presidential primary. Did as. And Elizabeth Warren appears to be rising in the polls just about everywhere. So at what point is it fair to consider her the front runner asked that question today and Hewitt me to do all of that are. Managing editor Michael Cullen you're actually the only other person with me in studio so we're gonna go to you first how the gallon that's a much room at the desk here on the to spread out my stuff a little bit. And very nice joining us from the road is editor in chief Nate Silver handing. I. Do and while. And Claire is out today suit is just the three of us. But I shout out to Clara because she just published a great piece on the web site about Biden and whether or not he. Is a front runner and what's his front runner status looks like at the moment. So I encourage Iran to go check that out and reader on the website today by 38 dot com. Anyway let's begin with the public opinion on impeachment. When Pelosi announced the formal impeachment inquiry a little less than a week ago on average about 36% of Americans supported impeachment. How has public opinion changed since then. Exchange for significantly. We ET in the most recent polls I would seem roughly speaking you. I'm eating pork or impeaching the president. Maybe Iran 45%. Growth in recent polls. Erica applications here she mentioned as a arcing through loopholes. Never what does it. Being single matters. Mary real time. Last week you kind of had earlier last week. As initial news about Ukraine broke. You did you'd see some Democrats. Calling for impeachment including Courtney import leniency policy. On prickly but for most damaging evidence came out and then later in the week. You sought obviously be an article transcript. Not likely transfer at a White House published an interpreter as a transport as I understand it. Conversation. Column call Saturday and we've been calling the call summary. That's are also the idea. Reconstruction her dues. And then Thursday. On what it was alert complaint came out you've also had trumped. Acting in ways that I it would consider a bit Iraq. So there where it is important and seat national coming out the exact it's going to be important number two it is that is between. Accordingly it should process. And actually teaching. Jobs. When asked me difference in the questions you have now. A distinction that some Democrats. And park between and hearings Horry process. Verses actually voting to impeach truck. Yes so when we break that it's two things out because they've been polling do you support an impeachment inquiry verses do you support impeachment. What's the differences in responses when you brick there's two things. So there's not. Really yeah yeah it really nailed it. Yeah we have been Adam. That's the right answers as it's still especially in this news landscape forces still getting data and that it's hard to break down but we've been going through the data we do have looking for patterns Lar brawn are quantitative editor looking for patterns that might. So not only other questions OK do you support opening impeachment proceedings. Do you support opening an impeachment inquiry. There's also there's and then there's do you support impeachment ranked there's also questions like. Do you support opening impeachment to remove that president. Right so does that is that asking people whether they support for moving trump. Or is that just saying hey impeachment is meant as a process to remove the president. We have got anyway that there are a bunch of different question warnings there's not really pat earn in. In the results we have so far may be must've bought as we don't have that many results in terms of like. Support for an inquiry getting more support for impeachment. Worded vaguely getting more support then. Removing the president entirely. But that could just be a fact that we know we got them stated yet really in this news. Yet casually looked like some of the polling about impeachment inquiry the inquiry itself. Got more support than straight up impeachment is not even that pattern has really emerged. I mean you would expect that pattern hammers. Rate. The night never really. Like this Nexus One of several. Important differences in question wording. In me important when you question. Because credit support impeachment. In eighty important like this at about whether it missions removal. Earned. You know so ordinarily look like it already polling or horse race polling. There are differences is that prospect symbols are systematically. Meanwhile the other. I'm here at bat that you had to question were could be. Quite pertinent so I don't. Think I don't feel it look like. Let's ask a top line which is percent shifting. In her in waited airy nice work president. And do we know who those. Voters are respondents are who have changed their minds from say 36 to your narrow. An increase in ten points in support for impeachment impeachment inquiry it's really it's it's really siren it's really department from a here but it's really. Across the board I took all the data we have for it into one bucket. And just ignored the question wording problem for a second which which may be that undermines his whole thing but if you do that. And you and you separate results out by among Republicans among Democrats among independents. And just tickling a simple moving average. What you see is. All three groups support for impeachment increases. Am I anywhere from Mike ten to fifteen points now. I think that's real I kind of makes sense right now like normally when you see a movement you do see movement kind of across the board. Which actually done and gone through all the polls. My impression is that ended the first calls came out should agreement among Democrats. Yes and then later polls showed a little bit more even handed between. Democrats independents and it's an ex Indian Republicans. Because there are things you're you know. I think there are accused of he had about like how much is because democratic leaders and can opera each and works is that news it's Al. Those things are to separate. I into the latter more I think it's probably murder commodities sell you get peninsula extra boat will. And zone you know the look. You for I don't think. Kind of come pound each other in a way like you now have. Nancy policy whenever she speaking to the country is reiterating things that are in all of these news reports right. That's that it hypothetical right it's not like policy. Suddenly said okay we reconsidered elements Mueller ordered. Animal humans whatever else and all of a sudden we decided that yet cases Trinidad effort impeachment she was waksal argued about. Up on this new evidence has come out of it different scandal. That is used terms scandal clearly. And so yeah at the same time. You know Democrats seem to poverty for a long time it saying he laid the ground work and we were the leaders here in Annapolis the end he added. Swing district. Representatives voted today you'll probably hear often on for a long time and actually. Important. To what happens going forward so much is like it's you know look interesting question for polling geeks and. Her. Term. Pundits and for people like that but but you know the numbers are definitely moving again it seems like. A little bit like you saw that weren't actual Liberal Democrats and and it's even doubt among. Among operator. Yeah and I would I mean this is really where you would expect to happen right like impeachment for very long time was an issue that. Unified Republican ends. Divided Democrats. And independents were sort of closer to Republicans than they were to Democrats I think so far you've seen at the very least. Democrats become more united united around that issue. And you've started to see. It divide Republicans a little bit more and independence creep a little bit closer to to Democrats. That to me though is sort of from if you're a Democrat rating for impeachment that is the low hanging for it really. I think in in. In the country today given how partisan politics are. If you have the entire party coming out for something than the voters to that party organized. And in a rally behind it says to me it's like. OK we see Democrats rally behind impeachment. What happens have been next several weeks and months among independents and Republicans. And Democrats successfully prosecute that case. Where independents. Move closer and closer to the democratic point of view. And it divides Republicans mourn mark. Where is the level that. Democrats would need to get public opinion to you in order to collect confidently move forward with actually impeaching the president and of course. This is probably not something that we can answer scientifically at this point. But need to use this as a benchmark right 53% of Americans disapprove of the job that trump is doing. Can Democrats kind of would that be enough is 53% of Americans supported impeachment the number of people who disapprove of Trump's job overall what that give Democrats basically the dollar had. It. At this point it or not reacting to public opinion poll they're just kind of of course they are right on any. Serious remarks at a political but it later that. In a private meeting with the car and articles and dot com. Look if you ever read. Earl listen to me on each and you know I bet that lists were down side waited for Democrats for each and Mueller. You know there are huge and out of uncertainty. And that uncertainty. Ranges. All the weight room specifically. It back are immigrants. Two truck actually removed from office. If you are considering those as light. None crazy possibilities. Then I think you're over but it. Because there is a process that is quite an entity quite chaotic. Com answer the rich and Terry why I guess I don't particularly downside waited anymore Democrats right. I think there's Edwards or listeners what works out well look like. Felt like. But you don't think you don't. Take for example that moving forward Reid actually impeaching president trump is dependent. On getting a majority of Americans behind impeachment at this point there just moving forward. The only way is it if if the story right that is Italy for Democrats that. Now like thinking he'd like a couple of things to happen right you need some kind of complication. Comes up rice into account a gauge where maybe there isn't I don't know maybe there is some kinda with Hunter Biden or something right Tom. The flowers in some ways discredited although then of course seized on the phone call but maybe the whistle blower being discredited throws enough kind of eight. The security. At any differences wet so Albert. And so should she won't get worse one other than what happens is our cash. Other than adequate care and a source saying no and right. The era collected as far as any arsenic in his defense and I think is obviously not behaving what you would advise you need it if he were really. Under threat of impeachment. Souls I don't know you know that's inherently unpredictable. Com. You know what is have to decide. Whether to you leave you can focus narrowly on Ukraine. War incorporated broader range. Of topics. I think listens and is most in Ukraine a swing district Democrats also must Ukraine and its Tennessee replied but that doesn't mean you know. It is impossible to imagine. About all his bargain Democrats in congress screwing things up. Now the stuff. You know that's that's that's either action but. But like to get people cents a case of like the prototypical. Example. Or like cautionary tale that I think policy has been. Really abiding by until very recently was the Clinton impeachment backfiring on Republicans. In 98 right. But if you look at polls from from around that time the 98 mid term elections. Opposition to impeachment. Was was in my sixty's mid sixties approaching 70%. Couple pulls him like sudden. Above 70%. So in that sense already. If that early polling post Ukraine whole loads. Democrats are already in a better position public opinion wise then Republicans were. With the Clinton impeachment in nine did. Now. Are they where. Democrats were with the Nixon impeachment. When Nixon resign. Now. Whereas support for impeaching Nixon at the very and was I mean at the very area and it was above 60% it's like high fifties and intent that sixties. But even a little before then you know it at took a clear majority support am so I I think. I think it's. To Whitney tenor and when they did earlier which it is is very true it is the movement we've seen among the public over the last week. Is super significant. If that hole some embassy you know as as mantis that maybe Democrats are not essentially. There's high unpredictability. When it comes to the outcome of this impeachment inquiry. And given that I was looking at that betting markets this morning. And it really does seem like people are batting out all kinds of different outcomes in this impeachment inquiry. Can you give us some background knee on kind of where the the betting markets are and what kind of outcomes people are considering. So when I checked that Morton will meet ticket right now as we speak so we're has been so predicted. Which we. Office I always program and thrower I settled it and I think. Prediction markets are not as far as he can do them from their will and Nikki commercialism. Seventy sevens you're percent chance it from being. Impeached. I'm. Now salute my office obviously what are bought about removed from office. Well I have an. 18%. Chance it will wish. His first term. I'm opposite multiple scenarios they are our series of all residing like Nixon days. There is near its involvement commitments for Asian. Com. For the record I believe it considers seriously pres and actually. Use. Pounds that's not art and 80%. Off in case alone. So you know column. I don't know I don't think. That number is. Crazy. And probably during Mahler or 8% average. Much higher at 50% actually you think it was crazy. You know it's a process that Republicans. Are seen some Republican. Detection. Gets charged a Doctor Who is a congressman from Illinois Republican from it fairly conservative. Romney can't district. Can just let the president isn't a new idea of civil conflicts depending on how he's proceeding goes. You know I so mussina retired members like to place where impeached and you should Romney a little bit like. Well Tom boss or to Nate trumps former monster Homeland Security advisor came out and says my. I think so great. It's Arctic to. The Republican defenses so far have been so feeble. I just wonder like what's being like where these fools. Where they like. Defend the president's conduct. For months and months and months at a time right. Away why I think. You know Boller and every other and so far the evidence was ambiguous and where. Where you can talking points that word sometimes wrong. Eighty in the Iran like. But work it is ridiculous. You sound like ED if you had cinema national TV. I'm sorry. I wouldn't be we striker candor on this show. Kevin McCarthy a sixty minutes I sound like eighty. Yeah talking about. Comes conduct or Cree east what it coming up what this organism may I have been. I don't question. When we were talking about the Mahler investigation it was always about trying to determine whether or not there was an actual crime right and at this point. They still have not established whether or not there was an actual crime is it going to come back to back Ian this impeachment inquiry deciding. Yet no wait Nana I got so one. In the Russian in this investigation and there was a special counsel investigating thinks so was about a crime they were looking for a crime. With Ukraine. Crime doesn't really come into the right am willing and it could if Republicans try to frame it that way for example. If if they wanna frame it as like but the you have to show criminal wrongdoing on the president's part to impeach them that they can trying to charm you know that mighty don't work I think. That is kind of mixed up and how Americans think about it. But the difference in Ukraine is. Crime or no. There is that there are there that's already been established right president trump pressured the Ukrainian president to interfere in the US election. That is beyond dispute now the White House itself released a call summary showing that. We never got to that point Russian investigation where trump himself was directly implicated in there are there right so. We're kind of well beyond. Where where Russia that's right. I think right it in my Ron yeah. Sure and like. You know these are presidential power especially at the illegal or saint by the way. When but what you might discover the Oracle later on there isn't much reverence and accidentally. But you know let the ball like. I'm. Do what they want to be saying that yeah I what kind it was really bad but it's not technically a crime there where you shouldn't impeach. Should bring. That argument potentially right now they make them and I think they can make that argument and actually may have made I think there's more of a chance of its exceeding them then you do I. I think. I think the American public has long. Being confused about what is necessary to be impeached I mean. The constitutions are confused about what's necessary to yap high crimes and misdemeanors what are high crimes and misdemeanors while that's up for cop. An election. Yeah he's running for reelection as it probably also every president has since. When the story is called Wednesday hurt. It looked like he says. Problems. To conceal right I mean it's it's you know com. Yes you're the GOP then I. Ran for reelection in written her a lot. Like what I now. The fact he's running for re election changes the game here and would make Republicans not wanna say like hey just as we talked about in the -- investigation. This is a question of whether or not a crime was committed you can disapprove of the behavior in fact. All kinds of different people have disapproved of all kinds of different behaviors are out terms presidency including. Dude are well known Republicans but it's not a crime and that's what we reserve impeachment for. His truck probably will be. The Republican nominee will be on the ballot next regrets it probably but incredibly before you know probably now. Com I don't come back from vacation I'm witnessing a hold the unique cell where he held its eighth. The facts have changed yet okay it's a two point well one point. Remember all their during the Russian investigation. One is. Over the course. This podcasts for example I think we talked about the Russian investigation. And I'm. Really sporadic. Right on this podcast we get Muller talk but. Yeah I mean it was when there was a hearing when a new piece of evidence came out this big news right we have already. With Ukraine. Pat I think had like ten segments on this you know that's an exaggeration the point is that we were. Very cautious on the Russian investigation and time to sort of not get ahead of the story right and that man. Not talking about it endlessly only talking about it when it's something new. Or Artie is another day another way to explain nest remember the game we played with their Russian investigation smoke there's fire yeah. There's we would ever played out that there there is no smoke first fire here because. We need to your agreement. Look trance house released a color are her. It's like your ears their. Actions and volume. About. Are clearly know it happened really fast. Like this transcript. Released. Which like the kind of evidence that Democrats were dreaming. Ember in the front yet Lawler. And the White House released it was crazy it was like what it is. Incidents on American here know that. OK so then exit line skiing and Ukraine with Putin and Russia. And how would this have played during the Russian investigation the answer is it would have been the smoking gun in the Russian investigation. So ot. Look. Impeachment is a political. Exercise. Right by design and I am. The framers did not give the power to impeach to the judicial branch to give it to the people's elected representatives in congress right to sort of like. All of this is politics and all that is politics by design. The fact that this happened so quickly. I do wonder about how that will of fact. The politics of everything. You sent it happened right after he was inaugurated he probably wouldn't have been impeached a what about this moment in time. Are you saying has shifted to body politics so much I'd I just say that's it to explain that like. The facts the facts of the case matter here a lot. And I think we see evidence of that in the polls but so does the contacts. Like. If a president has just been inaugurated. I think that there is you're gonna have a harder time impeaching Anne Marie it is kind of makes makes cents. With this. You know the fact that all this is happening just as twentieth when he is heating up. And just as the Russian investigation right down mean this call literally happened that day after Mueller testified which was like that. Informal cap on that on the Russian investigation. I'm not sure how. I'm I'm just not sure how that affects the politics of everything but so far we've seen the public. I think treat Ukraine as separate and and and public opinion has been different and Ukraine and I was on Russia but I still am I trying to sort out how everything is. Is affected by the by the context in which this is happen. A lot of his account or militants it Russians quote unquote. Is like. Mueller did not deliver relatives in the press. Oats brown who delivers Yeltsin not exonerated president it's very important to say right like. But that's important. The day muscle or aren't just like yours like. Proof admitted she by the White House abyss right we have some monuments. Scandal right is some like. Charging rooms a foreign leaders at trump hotel. In exchange for painters or some kind of another everywhere transfer to a White House that show back. I think it would also be in quite a bit of trouble depending on the context right bits like it's like. You know I think I get into arguments with like him. Resistance people sometimes and it's like Blackwell is also a really bad apple are likely here there's groups and there's proof that light the White House itself. Release. And it just so much lower. Important because like you know because you can't prove it is that it is the first. Defense rank and expenses like other what the crime. You can't sit act you can't say oh the president himself wasn't a ball gets it act like this failure or arrested visceral removed. All the sudden you're left with the disease is at best and then well you're having trouble. And so before we wrap up on the same and I do want to come back to the polling a little bit you're saying there's proof and so what there is proof of is that as we've said here. President trump pressured the president of Ukraine's a Lansky to interfere in the election by investigating the Biden's. Do we know outside of impeachment. Altogether. What M and so not debating whether or not that's a crime taking that. Factor out of the equation how to Americans feel about that behavior. I think the answer is. One UU pack can't take the context out of this you can't take impeachment out of this I think that informs. Public opinion so it's not like we can. Conduct an experiment and it you know an isolated hypothetical way a president. That said. Our colleagues at ABC news and it says asked this question of just like how serious a problem is it that president trump. Encourage the Ukrainian president to investigate Joseph Biden Imus on hunter. 43%. Said very serious 21% said some serious to that 64%. A bit of Americans. Think it's serious to some degree. Am 19% said not so serious 17% said not serious that'll. So that's when 636%. I'm sensors that I kind of gets out whether or not this because framed house wasn't a crime or not Americans have parties that they don't like. No they say it's serious and to me this standout number there it is playing 1% today summits area that's the context of this news nick has made this point before the context of all of this and will inform. Public opinion I'm on impeachment I think the big question we don't know is how will the approaching twenty to when he election. Affect how Americans. View. Impeaching trump and or removing trump from office. At by the way and vice Versa which may long talk about today but. How in those are huge crush marked right now I think is how does the election affect impeachment and how does the impeachment affect the election. But lets it already goes up to 44 from 42. Is that have winter Democrats I don't know. New narrative sense. I'm obviously you go down as well but like its record lumber and mines also. Is we publish an article on the web site today basically saying that when it really big news events happen and sometimes. It's cause to be skeptical of initial pull it. Now is this one of those cases and why exactly should we be skeptical. Initial Paul. You know this is probably in that ought to debate like. Is little desk today right why if the bridge below analysts'. His problem is likeness bananas and more like its work went to add something. Like a little. Headline where we had the problem. The sampling problem not the Ukraine problem. This. Problem. But it is reason to be distrustful of polls has. There are taking in the middle and isn't supposed to like win things have settled down. I mean deteriorated and is storm like this feels like let's get crazier inevitably. We'll call down. Eight thank you don't fix it. You were doubting your all like mid sentence there. A bit so I look I'm not like a polling experts are so I I don't know the methodology. That meant a logical parts of this that well but Mark Blumenthal. Who writes a mystery polls that are. Wrote this for us today and it's a protest and ended it is basically like. When these stories get. Feel real real date they make the Mike rate polling in icing who responds to poles themselves. And M icing that that. Response. And completion rate in ways that pollsters. Aren't accounting for. Two in this situation it would be something like Democrats are so excited about their new found position that they want to impeach the president that when a pollster calls. Democrats are much more likely to answer the questions and complete the entire poll that Republicans were like. No nor Ronald. That's exactly right but what I would say is look pollsters are really Smart. This is a reason to treat. The first few or early polls with caution but Osce should have been doing that anyway. So this is not a wreath and I repeat not a reason to distrust all Paul Lange or to even be. Extra skeptical of all polling or most polls are some Paul's this is just a reason to like. Wait for a little more into the a little extra cost. Will be right back with the thirty politics podcast on BC Newsnight we'll get a discussed the latest polling out of the democratic primary and whether or not Elizabeth. And is out the front. And we're back with the fact dirty politics pod cast on ABC. News live biggest on some new national and early state pulling some commentators and outlets are starting to describe Elizabeth Warren. As the front runner in the democratic. So is it fair calling Matt at this point in the race. Let's discuss our last Monday's podcast you all discussed the latest high quality pulling out of Iowa which showed Warren invited essentially tie. Warren was leading by two points with in the margin of air. Since then a number of good polls have come out for Warren showing her leading by a slim margin bulls nationally and in other early states. Various outlets and commentators are now characterizing Elizabeth Warren as deep front runner or at least posing that question. So count us in on that list of outlets that at least posing the question. Neat and Micah is Elizabeth Warren as of September 30 the democratic for. Issue in national polls no. End to be honest. It's a national polls there is cherry picking people are really excited about Elizabeth Warren has had an action winners. They probably clicks better. Then the Biden's ads or probably get better readings and in this NBC. She's not yet ahead in national polls. And on. She. Let the coroner based on. Purples and Iowa and New Hampshire. Which more often than not shows her. I had it Biden at least tap it on the pole and what street poles and Iowa I believe in two of them showed Warren and abide mention right now and it we've had. One poll of those. You're gonna Madigan that showed Warren ahead. You see more pupils are buying silica and incomplete results in the about it diesel went all about it showed life. Warren inviting target and we'll also Bernie and bind. There's like a lot of good news for. Warren in his early state polls. Mr. Biden's bill this year at this week it had Biden's went South Carolina and tightly with Bernie and are pretty people survived. The Nevada holds good for Burton also he has had very few people otherwise in the early states like. I think. I think you always wanted to kind of the long term average of polls and I think you know. You wait staples outlets and finally that it. More elite subject yourself then I news is snapped. Task yet in peach will play their worried has been at it's he has momentum right. Are reasonable argument she is the most likely. Nominee would you argue. I don't know you know I don't know how well you're hearing. Eddie. Here's another thing here is a hypocrite here's another here's another when asked this is like what would it take data lives. For us to see to say okay now warrant as the clear front runner because for me it's like. You know what in this in temples a simple out of South Carolina for example showed wire and I think it was at like 3% among black voters. To me that number has to come up if if I mean ten warrant win the nomination without. Any meaningful Block's board. I guess it's numerically possible right but it just seems a little far fetched. And then also I would just wanna see innate plane. About it's only been a few flaws. I want to seem more pulls out of Iowa and New Hampshire Nevada. And and South Carolina. Showing warrant lead you know is just. Did did it's clearly been a lot of good news for wine she's clearly been on an upward trajectory and I think there's a real. You could ever real argument now about. Is the best way to describe it as site. You know. Carl front cold front runners or whatever something like that but. But you just you just wanna see more of this before use you comment and that's like look warrants upward trajectory has been slow and gradual. And and in that sense. That distinguishes her from. You to judge for example Harrisburg to implement on to other campaigns you know. That distinguishes her from the Herman cain's surge and decline. The Michelle Bachmann surgeon that decline. Do we think like do we know empirical league that rising. Gradually means you can't collapse suddenly. I don't think so. Here is what will collector. Random walk more or less which is that like. In our regrets and moral possibly do it yourself to be yet it you're time. In numbered dates com. With awards on secondary steady means should we are starting to. Others like a lot of luck and when we saw right all except for the top three. Are now down around three or 4% you know certain 3% that are ripped through yeah. Wouldn't 4% of our people and Accenture at this point right I'm. Marla Harris is don't seem to be lost in arms really part of were burning around 50% 60% national polls com. The most attentive voters early state old and the low teens maybe there's a few more fair for. But Warren but like. A lot its victims remain. In her supporters are pretty rusty Anders wrote. Carter now warrant for. Like. When you talk impeachment for the first order shall we can make its seems like we're talking about these. Relatively minor always yes it's a fairly static primary and could some ways he could make it more. Maybe because it lets you cycles and voted on devoted ended primary anybody's here anybody except. Worried and are Barton Ernie Ernie. That's good news for you if I am. Go to church and a surge. And we're talking about that's not really the house and the news cycles will be devoted and it. You all set get a good Ole Iowa well you know actually the president that you peaches and works in story about 38. Six getting 12% and Iowa poll and so like it is much opportunities for an immediate fuel circus outside it's not. Two I'll let up until this. That's intrinsic right that. The kind of remain where they are we will of course apple C wet happened yes that looked up as I said before I think it meets impeachment. It's like a huge bucket of and certainty dumped into the primaries. The effect may be as but Nate described it is like it kind of has this stole to fine effect on I'm other would be. Change factors in the race. That was a very weird way to describe. But it but I don't think we now I think I think it could be do we have any sense at this point how this is all affecting Bart and the fact that. It was trumped pushing for investigation of the Biden's being Ukraine. I think it's too early which said. We. Really didn't you're not super nanny equality polls of democratic primary you know. Late last week which what you want to see here's the usual I think terrorist acts. On does tracking for Scott rest is and I can't be confused. With Rasmussen Reports. As an Scott present dot com as more credible. Well I think yeah. Are you as one of the good things of that arrest report and there are very few remaining good things Rasmussen Reports. Anymore. On. Our New England Canada and as the argument with terrorists an active partner at Texas operated. Daily polls. And doesn't really seem to show much. Alicia late last week they head Brighton. 33. Executives and a date but he actually in the initial couple a days like. Any movement for any case but I know whitish it was actions was going to be. Shot for behind the primary. Even. Because of you has defense urged that can't quite articulate. I just at its its actually missed keeper. I think it's changed she will be present. Now you have of an of the Biden campaign put out letter to you the networks basically saying. Don't invite Rudy Giuliani on but essentially you have. President trump and his circuits like Giuliani going on the news and talking about know this has really a scandal about Biden. And so that's of course part of the risk I think that you're talking about me. Yeah they're scared number one it is. Com. Shirt Brian campaign. Is excited about going offs correct. OK. Number two I think. If you depend. Others might say okay this is really. You know religiously eat on and it shows we can it was. Was spouting theories out by an. Easy Berry's sound. Voters here is it teens. It's dollar something like it seems like he's little touch ours that is you're very risk averse. Campaign. Well Warren as the most vocal looks on cider. Com early Democrat in favor. Of the bite people still want to put an important shows that. Defend himself just register teacher on this and I had no idea I can see where we're Biden but I feel like it's not a not a development by campaign would welcome. Let me let me outline another potential scenario where this hurts Biden. A lot of Biden supporter and in fact a lot of Biden's. Pitch to voters is about. Beating trial right and hey I'm the best person be trump. I'd I'd do better than ever announcement on our auction polls against them. Trump is a huge danger. And we just need to beat them animal worry about like our big policy goal Slater thank. To the extent that the Ukraine scandal. Weakens trump. If that happens if that happens. It also weakens Biden's argument right because if all the Cendant trump support is that trumped approval rating is that. 38% and set a 42%. Then you know. A month as anybody can beat them but it's much easier to beat him in now. And so I think you'd maybe see you know if come February 8 again trump support is at 30% approval rating. Then I think democratic voters might might say to themselves. Screw it this guy's disguise weekend let's go for warrant let's go for Bernie you know we don't really have to play it safe here this this person's and I really. Democrats like Biden on policy I think people miss that mustard area capsule. By it but it does hurt his electability argument. Is. They what was it like I said I don't think his campaign is quite figured out. Well to say but who knows you know couple came out our should brighten up to 34%. Or something. You know wouldn't like. Chuck ES Sepulveda are runaway right people like really neat like actual look at. Averages. And and yeah this is worth mentioning here which is Warren didn't take a lot of her support from Biden quoted boring get her support for now it's really Harris ran a and Bernie are some burning. Early states were. We're birdies number predominant letters and explain eleven in these white liberals say without more tickets and its board now. And one. Kind of wrapping up here on the topic of war and since we asked if she is the front runner is this the moment at which you would expect that if there's going to be a kind of anyone but war and or push from the establishment or more kind of like. Over aligned members of the Democratic Party it would be now I mean do is this the point in just. The race. Or use the. A switch in terms of who people are focusing on when they think about the front runner that they need to overtake or the person that they need to prevent from winning the nomination. I don't think we've seen that because. You like my Rea I mean. I think. I think people still think abide in the front runner. Are there. Are there people who are there people out there are other interests out there who were like really worried about warrant now in the Democratic Party. What is what I'm reacting a little bit Judith CNBC report and leave it. The headline reads Wall Street democratic donors warned the party will sit out or back to prompt if you nominate Elizabeth Warren. Of course they're working where an anonymous sources but. You know doses. Are an outage and we start laughed right arm and all unhappy Crimea. What do you think that there. Are there are whole liver consequences. That could result for more now being perceived as that front runner. If she were to be perceived as the front runner. Which I think she added if you thought the dialogue among liked. National pundits write it. The minute predicting dip buying advice for months. And they're not looking like you know South Carolina pulls BC doubles and there were forgotten something about it uttered barely any attention to match the more narrative. We were just merely okay pulls for her. A look at or like a life okay robbed. Actually I don't mind this impeachment thing is happening right in it that are turning little it and sort worst certainly have our Yana Ted you're gonna. Say what the risks were and a about being perceived as the front runner what are that. The risks that other candidates Iraqi more recent a little bit from the sanders' campaign. What kind of trial in Jerusalem attacks on Warren. You know Biden has not you don't after war in much tighter. Terrorists is everything and after more in much so that could change and it could get worse skeptical of its reexamine. Just let's plants motor. Scandal that series and haven't thought about yet right. Expectations will be higher or her race number. Boaters and little frisky as they like to be you know contrary emirates and four to check your Klobuchar. I don't feel Lenovo branded rising and falling but like we don't know like. There was a witness news cycle Longo in the winter where Warren Christo is very negative. And so he's seen it yet. No and maybe that's it apart from it that maybe now impeachment sort of like takes the place of what would have been a skeptical cycle of news coverage for one night to say though we were sent in protective earlier. And I'm normally not the one that that is friendship dent. And I am. But I just pushed back on the idea that line is perceived as the front runner but I'm predicted. The odds implied by the prices there. I think give Warren a 49%. Chance of winning the democratic nomination. To Biden's 21%. My reading that ray. That teams bunker. So Aaron that as of about noon on Monday. Warren's. Warrant a stock market is selling at 49 cents stock and buy them at twenty cents act Kris he. By the way third and tied for third and fourth are Bernie Sanders and answers. Tied for fourth and fifth are Hillary Clinton and people who do judge who will affect the cooked up up up. This was the moment in the podcast where we point out that. Part of the reason we joke about the people behind predict and bet fare being Scottish teenagers. Is because they're not always reliable well let's look at those who knows what happened in out of Cox. Although I think in pyrrhic lead based. Wall looking at historical polling somebody at Elizabeth Warren's polling levels of right now does not have a 49% chance of winning the democratic nominee. Well yeah this spot like. It's always difficult for us we're talking rob abilities which is like what I think Biden. Lately has more than 20% chance when enough when news and yes it's considerably. Under. 50% yeah okay. I think thirty. Or thirty and there was says sweaty. Iran must attack that is. It is a very big gap you can where they are respectively. In national polls. No by 530 terms as as Claire mentioned on a previous podcasts you know normally it we're like actually the odds are twelve point 5% not 10%. You know 35% verse 20% that's a huge yeah. All right well I think we're gonna leave it there for now. As are already mentioned we may end up. Well we will see you later this week but whether or not it's an emergency Ukraine knee on the pod cast is yet to be seen Ukrainian. Anyway. Mike I think you know may think you have to back to whatever you do and on the road. My name is Dillinger ton each now is in the control room are in turn is Jake Arlo. You can get in touch by emailing us at podcasts at 530 dot com you can also of course greeted us with questions or comments. If you're a fan of the show beavis or rating or review in the hot or choosing nortel's products thanks for listening and both.

This transcript has been automatically generated and may not be 100% accurate.

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