FiveThirtyEight: Will The Two-Track GOP Merge In The Debate?

Farai Chideya, Harry Enten, and Jody Avirgan discuss the two camps in the GOP primary, and what to expect from Donald Trump now that he's not ahead in the polls.
5:32 | 10/13/19

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Transcript for FiveThirtyEight: Will The Two-Track GOP Merge In The Debate?
Also how Jeb Bush saying well if if you don't if I can't you know. Deal with the good this craziness of this race then I think I'll just take my cookies and go home I mean. In what world is that a good thing to say I mean I I'm paraphrasing clearly had not carried take cookies and go home but I want some of those cookies and but I do. He's saying that he doesn't he doesn't have to go home but may be what is emerging and I'm curious what you think about this Harry is. But kind of two primaries happening in Paris. And so we have the trump Carson primary happening over here. And then we have the rubio bush primary happening only here at some point it's going to be one person from this camp and one person from this camp. But. I can imagine a world in which an advisor to bush says it's okay if trump and Carson over to each of them over to each other and go back and forth that doesn't matter. Because at some point we're just gonna have to go up against only one of that someone from that camp. Right and and I think that. This Smart money if there's going to be two camps will be the final two candidates at this point is that they'll be this sort of bush rubio camp and most the Smart money right now if you look at the prediction markets as I'm rubio to be the one who makes out of that camp. And then and that other camp of the outsiders and actually won't be either trump. Fort Carson but in fact would be someone like Ted crews do. It's somebody who at least has more staying power has raised the money is building infrastructure that's necessary to compete. But that idea but to track primary we frequently see that we have that Morse thousand cannon that more outside candidate and that some connected easily turn this year if you. So if you just look at a way that primaries. The game out it's often you know candidate from one track when the first one and Aaron cannon from the other room where New Hampshire and so then this is a pack. We've walked for four and Cruz has also been very solicitous in going to. Territories and places that have electoral votes you know cruise is playing his own game. In terms of going to Guam in terms of going to places that might have a role in. You know I'm the electoral process of Guam I think hearing our chats about love joie. So it's it's weird every bit many of these candidates are playing a different game. But I think in the end. When you look at this they differential in numbers were you've got. Bush crews from rubio in the single digits and right now you've still got trump in Carson in the double digits. It's it's a trump could conceivably walk away from the race if his ego overtakes his ambitions. But there is no reason that his numbers will flat line. So much that he has to pull out right it is purely going to be his decision do you know what I mean yeah race. There that is he won't like fall in the Scott Walker territories are getting starts back to his name and zeros yet but it could be a situation where he's at ten or eleven or 12% where other candidates might stay impacts from who. Just feeds so much off of being told that we really really like you I'm amazing amazing. And then all of a sudden he's not so amazing when he's just another candor I don't think trump can just be another candidate so it's going to be interest saying. As we go line of his numbers do continued to decline whether or not he actually sticks and rates or how long. Jackson also talked about these factors that we just laid out as a play out in the debate right we have the chewed tears or maybe the two tracks actually have this Karstens moment in the sign and then we have trump. Starting to maybe for the first time it takes solar field I cannot be you know that inexplicably. Added everyone candidate. Fiorina is gonna come out as strong as she can because she got such a huge bump from the last debate and she's fallen back it was like the moon at. Yeah well like poop poop. Well you know relatively speaking. Really don't know what Jeb Bush is going to do because if he's going to follow. Kind of a long term strategy. He should play it night is and stay the course and you know not rollover but also not really go on the attack the attack and look presidential like they say. But if he's trying to raise his poll numbers into double digits he's got to get out there are swinging the question is who does he swing at half truck. You you can't win when you swing trying he's like the TARP aid. You know what I mean and then Carson it's like. I'd still search. All. Do you know where a British heat and those two as just another. Track he has seen how my president I don't group. And you he's definitely I I think that's exactly right I mean I think bush is big mistake and that's has been getting in the mud with Donald Trump rubio really. Hasn't done that I mean occasionally when trump is try to bring him and he has fought. I think mostly with states fought successfully against a release fought to a draw. Vs bush who I think I'm most of these exchanges with trump has come out and in the loser in them I think bush is just got to stay the course I think. That question that I would love to see answered in this debate. It's what does Donald trumped it does he go after Ben Carson forty seen him make allusions to Ben Carson is religion which I think a lot of people thought was an appropriate. And whether or not trump can actually take the pressure of being punched a little back. I don't know I don't think you can but we'll see where we end up after the debates. Aren't so we'll be watching what we blog even hopefully a lot of people will be joining us.

This transcript has been automatically generated and may not be 100% accurate.

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