Transcript for FiveThirtyEight: Who will win tonight, Trump or Cruz?
Is there. I would say it's Missouri because it's a state that Ted Cruz has a good shot at winning if we believe the demographics look at the states in the south at a voter before in the states immediately to the west. And it took crews can win they're getting picked up a number of delegates. And it could keep Donald Trump from winning all but one state that once they being Ohio and the median age has dismissed that as coach John case something. I'm most curious to the results in Illinois act. I had to be different while Illinois has a little bit of mix of everything cruises. Within striking distance of the polls there's not been my polling there but that's the state where I think it might. Give us an indication of how the race might shape up later on. Five for five babies are handed out five for five but. I think if trump. We're lose Ohio and we hadn't favored to lose Ohio. But one everywhere else that's and he would still count as. A good may be very good night for trump depending on. Depending on the margins and at that it's a fine line if he narrowly wins. Illinois and Missouri and only has half the delegates there than its kind in it in line with expectations. Well I guess it's almost like if I have my own delegate allocations I think when I was drunk I spreadsheet I had a winning the vast majority of delegates and all Illinois act to me is in line with expectations at say he won half. Of the delegates on all Illinois and that includes winning statewide getting those twelve delegates it would be nearly as an effort to be at a that night than it probably means he loses. Illinois right. I think that could not protect cruises winning Missouri I think that's at a minimum offer a good night for Ted Cruz is winning Missouri to win in Missouri and then either. Come really close in Illinois and North Carolina that would. Be decent thus the question does crews. Would he like trump to lose. To win Ohio. I act again I it's she I just don't see how you can give Tron 66 delegates to an on the 99 delegates from Florida. I think cruisers chance of winning outright against trap. That is winning without a contest mention are quite low so I would think he would their lab equipped Loral I think they'll. Rowdy people people missed this 1237 threshold yes it's important but the point at which trump has a plurality or nine. It's also important. I so let's talk about last week and Bernie Sanders Wear Sanders. One machine in in what was relative to the polls. He's supposed to break even with Clinton's big industrial states he's behind her because she's cleaning up in the south so to splitting those midwestern states. While it's impressive for Sanders and when the sends. Is not consistent with him and any point overtaking Clinton for the nomination he's got to do. Either win those going away or make the deficit much smaller in the south. Right so if we're looking at the end of the day we're looking at pledged delegates Clinton right now has an over 200 pledged delegate lead if she wins by those margins you hinted at in Florida and North Carolina. That delegate lead is going to expand upwards of three into pledged delegates. That type of deficit is very difficult come back from so for a good night for Sanders. You know actually have a shot at winning this thing and make me rethink where the race is going he needs to keep those deficits down in Florida North Carolina. Because at the end of the day it's votes that matter because it's all proportional here over delicate matter and winning states.
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