Transcript for Nate Silver reviews the FiveThirtyEight Midterm forecasts
Twenty team was of really good year for word for forecasts and for polls on including by thirty eight's forecast which we're very proud of kind of starting with the top line numbers we had Democrats projected. In the various miles swing between 36. And 39 house seats it looks like it'll be forty in the senate we had Republicans picking up an average about one. Senate seat looks like the win two so again. From a top line basis that's that's. About as good as you can really expect and the same goes for if you look at. Individual races so we had I think 506. Forecast between house and then governor of those looks like in the deluxe first in the model about 409 B will be right again given a couple of risks that are still uncalled with it reflects the fact that. Polls had a good year there are about as many upsets that favor Democrats. And Republicans support a governor's race for example Gillen was ahead by a few points in the polls whose assembly fibers or percent favorite. In our forecast and Desantis one instead. But there are several house race Oklahoma five South Carolina one in New York eleven which is on Staten Island. Those are Chris we're Democrats won his underdog conceive had you know that's what you want to toss ups to go in both directions when that happens then. When you get to look Smart in some ways I think the fundamentals part of our model may be underweights little bit partisanship. In states like Indiana at fidelity should be tossed a Cuban in the democratic incumbent favored. But we're not a political environment where. The register balloonists of the state where the district matters more than anything else critics say it but issues like we're kind of tired about having the big. Men philosophical arguments about. About forecasting we've been doing this now for word. For six election cycles coming mid terms and a method basically works its reforming all of these things go in waves and in cycles are you gonna have. Years like this morning were saying. 2008 you can have years liked when he. Fourteen. Where everything was skewed. Toward Republicans Hilton where the polls where they beat their polls by fear for points on average also two worth reports in 2000. And sixteen for example and say you're gonna have your very years. And your worst years we will bank that's as far better yours we think we had a long track record now we just think though that like he should evaluate this year's results. It's a very good in the context of the overall history of of how we've done them.
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