Trump's Tax Returns Challenge His 'Successful Businessman' Image

In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses the New York Times report on the president’s taxes and its potential political implications.
55:43 | 09/28/20

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Transcript for Trump's Tax Returns Challenge His 'Successful Businessman' Image
Hello and welcome to the fire authority politics podcast I'm deal and root. According to recent polling from Reuters two thirds of Americans wanted to see president Trump's tax returns and now they have a much clearer picture of what is and the New York Times published a report Sunday showing president trump paid 750 dollars a year in federal income taxes in 2016. And 2017. He paid no federal income tax during ten of the fifteen preceding years due to reported business losses. The report poses several key questions from the president. Whether he is the successful businessman and billionaire he's has he has. Whether his projects and doubts pose conflicts of interest for him as president and whether his accounting procedures will fall we love. Today we're gonna discuss the implications of the information in Trump's tax returns and look at the calming confirmation battle over president trumps nomination for the Supreme Court. Dini Tony Barrett. To be honest I expected but that would lead the pod cast today. But you know it's twenty Torre's so of course we have more news that we have to cover first. So let's get to hear it here agree to do it all our editor in chief Nate Silver Haney. Hey everybody. Also Arab Justice Souter politics read or Perry bacon junior preparing. It is the Yale you terror and politics editors are frost and case. Pink new. Claire is out today and I will also mentioned that of course we have the first presidential debate tomorrow. On Tuesday we will be live blogging it at. Passed after the unity is over receive can expect that in your feet. Probably very early Wednesday morning. But let's get cheer it on this New York Times report. And president Trump's tax returns it was a very long report so just a start off I'm curious to hear from each of you. What you thought was that take away or the most significant revelations. In the report given just the amount of information and there was that and need we can start. So I'm. I'm and a focus here on kind of what the immediate electoral consequences might be because that's kind of might beat. I think 750. It's a number that people will remember which is the amount of taxes that trump paid. Allegedly in 2016 and then again and when he seventeen. I would know he could have paid zero. But he chose to pay. 750 I guess so people couldn't say he paid zero. But I think that number will rule. Is memorable you know is what times you of these stories about his taxes and have a a lot of complicated story lines in this kind of this is something that you can imagine. Appearing a lot of Biden commercials area has been made into some commercials right. Some resting its most important thing from a news standpoint. For me over a kind of knew Sam point you might think OK what's all this debt that from past his right. Is that a security risk in certain ways. But I didn't affect there are some. Things people can latch on to. You could be important in terms of how this affects public opinion. Parted for you Walt was it may take away or revelation. I think the 750 is the number I'll remember is loving this correct although I do you think two of the things are reaching as well I'm not. Saying there electorally. Important but the idea disease. 400 million dollars in dia has the story implied. And at a financial expert expert and opportunity one bit. That is a lot of money to me and so that Saddam goes this idea that. It to Keller raises questions about. How could a businessman is he. Who's he Oau. Word is working that money to does that is that is that that money some that money affect his decisions at all that he hoped people who might in December of the US government's of that quarter million dollar it was important. And the third thing is the idea that at some of the projects he was paying your pocket strong period large amounts of money. As a consultant. I don't think that's the easiest thing to understand well I think it's but I think the eight year that this that a politician is paying his daughter. Huge amounts of money as a consultant. On projects. While the same time pay no taxes I think there also might be normal people as wells of those that jumped out at me so I would say the Ibaka consulting deals. 400 million and the seventh if you've accurately the 750 is that they armor most and so wait 750. Was memorable and zero. Yet now I mean to echo at Natan Perry of house at 750 is the sound bite from this rate like last had a sob that Biden's campaign are he has stickers that I hate more income taxes than Donald trop I mean it's just it's effective rate. For many of the keys really raised two questions right it's how much to keep purposely evade trying to pay taxes which is a really serious allegation doing things you know paying of on Pat's a consultant as Terry said. Or he just made some really bad business investments and in have to pay taxes because he loses you know net losing money. Actually think in a weird way the second one might be more damaging to trap because it strikes at this image of pan as a successful businessman. Which I was kind of surprised and looking at the polls. From tiny sixteenth at that was a huge part of his success particularly in the Republican primary. And it will talk about that later but I think. In some ways particularly you know at times a separate going to do multiple stories on this in the coming weeks. Depending what the next bites of this are I think that could damage trance image as a successful businessman and maybe that does tablet world repercussions. We essar can. Elaborate on not you mentioned polling from 2016 on the role day it is image as a successful businessman played and what does that polling Telus and our how important that is. Q which is six arrest perhaps as a politician. Yes so and twice sixteen after the primary gallop was looking at you know what was it about various candidates that drew you to support them. The first reason for trop was because he wasn't a politician. That's less true this year right but the second issue was his business background and this idea that he was a successful businessman. To that clearly does resonate with some segment. Of his base in the Republican Party. The other thing I thought was interesting is you know his need eluded to it the top this isn't the first time we've had an investigative piece on Trump's taxes rate and his refusal to disclose it. Some 20:19 there is a morning console Politico poll. Where they were looking at you know what do you think Trump's success as a businessman 54% say I think he's successful but as soon as they confront them with a New York Times article. Showing that you know well he actually had a lot of losses in his rise as a real estate mobile in the nineties and two thousands that drops to like 43%. Which to me it's one poll but speaks to this idea. That that image of hand as a successful businessman is malleable when confronted with facts that challenge that her show that he's made poor investments. I've been surprised by how much it seems like people will move on their perception of trump as a result. Gandy and parent here is for you to weigh in on this how much this report and its contents. Please in Q what Americans think about president trump are are positively. I mean it's hard to know I think when biased that media coverage has some probably 538 has right is to. Focus a lot on. Policies and think of people are very kind of Kurt fusion. In the sense of how a formula and preferences rightness here's hyped lineup on the social access and economic access. Here's where these candidates are different close Canucks on issues like you're on about Amy -- anger when in fact like a lot of people especially a lot of undecided voters. Duke Carolina about the personal narratives of the candidates. I was listening to a and its arrival podcasts or not but an episode of the daily New York Times. Ahead Nate Kohn on from the upshot would actually went back and interviewed. A lot of undecided are loosely decided voters. The time to doesn't pull sake we call you back in view of immoral and later. And he's we're talking a lot about like okay. You know I like buying but he seems to stammer alive right I'm not sure he's all there brighter. You number Republican Mitt trump just seems kind of mean right. So I can get down like personal characteristics is narrative of trumping a successful. Business person. I don't know I think there's some. I think there's kind of some potential to affect perceptions there. If we get up next week in his approval rating is below forty or something different -- products like you know he's been in this fairly consistent range for a long time. I there are undecided voters. But it's sort of a little bit hard look like we're gonna have so many big events the next few weeks we're gonna have we have this report nomination we have the debates we have the taxes. I have no doubt those voters will make them assessments of these various events. I'm not sure it'll be easy to pin down how many voters or if any voters were really moved by this tax story. At sites and I suspect he. Overwhelming majority of people who have pretty sit views on tropical Libya's huge. Is what I think the model outcome is. This story can it reinforces. Previous. Previously held views about throughout rather than it seems a lot of them but again. Straw being 43. Vs 4546. Vs forty eight's. In approval or final vote is a huge difference of it makes of it if it moves to percent of people. That's very important. I don't know it will I don't think it will open again weeks but I think he's some role you know these small changes. Are so important at this pays the race that it could lose one person or people from trumpets a huge star. Can we put into context here how many Americans in the electorate are undecided. At this point. You know in our polling hours are national polling average for example we currently Joseph Barton. At 50% and top acts 43%. So there's 7% in there that is I've heard you know voting. Third party or write in or is undecided. How much about 7% roughly is undecided. And we expect. Not more than maybe one and one half percent of the vote to go to third party candidates. So probably five and a half or 6% of people or our. Truly undecided. I mean look Biden's at 50% nationally he's close to 2% many swing states of the not necessarily there yet and Citron has to somehow win. All is undecided voters -- that polls are wrong in like the problem the story is like I'm. First of all the times has promised that there are going to be follow up stories right. So it's almost like. It's not quite direct comparison but it would elect kind of but her emails in reverse right words like a drifter yet. The difference here there's a lot more substance I think an email story for Clinton. But also trump is libel suit. React in ways I mean look this is threatening to him no matter what it's hurting his reelection as a turning to him if he loses. During his business interest and legal consequence the financial consequences and whatever else right. Talking about his family maybe there's some stuff about like and how is campaign is run his campaign has been surprisingly. Short on cash to spend on ads in the swing states which is interest in you wouldn't expect come to react in necessarily com. And rational ways right word to run I mean he's ever gonna run a disciplined campaign right but like you can imagine trumps best chance of victory were involved okay. I wouldn't bear down and focus on the Supreme Court that's relatively good for me. The economy is it's improving. And just have been upbeat Joseph in the debates right and that's plausible you know but. It's gonna let her from that you know maintain any type of again it's kind of a realist expected to be focused in in the first place spotlight it's not a welcome issue to add to the the issue environment for trump. I wanna take a step back and talk about the nature of the report from the New York Times so it's a long before as an accident. There are any name sorcerer's and of course the actual documents the tax returns were not published. Although Osama awe of the documents were kind of confirmed we have independently or separately for clear tax documents. How does that play into all of this race you know we do a lot of media criticism on this podcast trump has press conference last night. Pretty frankly sent this news. Hand you know we don't see the physical. Tax returns in front of us maybe we will Sundays here knows how does that shape. The public's reaction of the world liability for us so I don't know I think. I wonder what in your time's up published. The tax returns I'd wonder if they will at some point or not. The problem trump has though is that he has also not disclose his tax returns like. Most presidential candidates have right. And so it's like okay so what's a deer here you wanted dare New York Times to release the returns right well them released and yourself you know. So it's a bluff that like can easily be called right to get I would I would have liked to know a little bit more about why the times. Didn't release a returns may be one answer is that. We don't want people to go crazy with misunderstanding the contacts so we'll release them. After you've written a couple more stories provide that context. They might say we have to redact some parts but I don't I apologize to the times and Edwards have missed anything I don't think prided from my vantage point. A clear explanation for why they've made that choice so far they mentioned to protect sources here it's. Notes it's gonna say yet analysts and editors Dan was they wanted to protect sources who have taken in Norman enormous personal risks to help inform the public. Think really the case may be don't release the actual tax returns but you know they've done inner actives in the past where it's like you know this is how much was claimed four X detection and withholding this Q could've walked readers after a cave we're recreating some element of the tax returns year. Without disclosing underlying document to explain some of numbers there and so. Yes hopefully at some point. We do get better access to banks that you think it was curious that at this point they haven't. Done more transparency around because it seems to open the fake news door to so lightly for trap. So I would say that it's on I'm on ABC news page in the lead story is. Also reports soon struck me just seven is the dollars in income taxes it's not allegedly is not supposedly they've basically taken respect. The Washington Post lead story. Strong avoided paying taxes for years report says that there. Basically in BC news web site straw tax records showed U plus cities and even further sell. I think this story is people believe there are other journalists basically believed his story to be true and are covering it. Basically like it's true insulin that since even as unnamed story. It's sort of is reinforced by what we know about strong will be nobody attacks that way as I think this story would be. Indeed the story wouldn't be as damaging if the other rests with Kenneth critiquing it but its own weight the other breast. Is amplified and I haven't watched local news today my guesses the Evers local news station is playing this story. And probably playing at less likable side story and more like. The largest newspaper in the country published a definitive story. Do we suspect he's true we think used to reasoned that since I know the sourcing is vague and not clear. But it's not like some of those rusty gates juries where people were nervous about what we do with I think most people probably date Donald Trump paid. Some very small number of Texas. And had wanted dead and his daughter was a consultant for him to get paid a lot of that acting in this case. The story will be reinforced because people will believe it to Beecher and other us the president three. Yet it's funny of that quarters answers polls I mention. The top of the show. A little over half of Americans Sadr. Earlier this year that trump was holding as tax returns because the information in them carte hurt him politically. So even without any of this information in the New York art for port. Like a lot of Americans already believed the things that ended up being in the report. To be true also say that we often how that's to be. On the part doesn't in media more broadly about whether or not president trump is tough on right rubber not scandals and actually sacked him. And reality is that if you look at. Poll after poll after poll on different characteristics of president trump asked about whether or not he's honest. Sixty some percent of Americans that he's not honest thirty some percent of Americans say he isn't even people who support him say he's not honest. And that puts him at a disadvantage when he's trying to do. Attack a report like this if they already believe he's not so in a way he's not quite. Well he's losing by seven or eight points which is a pretty big margin. And we talked for about Canada's stock vs flow rate it is true that like. Some personal revelation doesn't seem to necessarily shift things all that much but like. He is a deeply unpopular guy and a half the country says they would never consider voting for him also there is a gap between its slight. But his approval ratings are now little bit better than his personal favorability ratings. So there are a few people out there who say I think Europe's you know Kate job. Maybe economy's getting back to life right. But I don't like his personal conduct in its influence of two parts you know vote for buying or sit out the election or vote for. Joseph Jordan sooner or how he Hawkins who were these people. Story majority now. I respect any candy rents to present. But like but it is an issue for him you know it's baked in dough like. The fact that he is in a lot of it problematic spot in actually was. Trailing Joseph Biden and underwater poor ratings before. Cove it in the economic crisis and racial protests in everything else it. One thing I wanted to answered comebacks here in focus in on is there's a lot in the report has already mention year old said that the 750. Figure is. Most important one. Perhaps because it's the most memorable book. What kind of and other messaging app we've seen from Democrats are far and what kind of responses have we seen from Republicans about. You know how this is explainable our Orton not a scandal or whatnot. I mean so Democrats are jumping on it saying this is. And it's have been too partisan Democrats won has been trump is not paying taxes he seemed to system so law and that sort of an obvious misses. The second has been huge anti Elizabeth Warren people like they're saying more more so. Policy are needed to be more Liberal Democrats saying also that this is assigned the overall tax system is bad it's not just its trump is she is not to talk with the V Texas that rich people overall are able to get away from. Paying taxes Biden is not mislead running. Dick cannot populism campaign as such but he's done some elements of it. And I wonder you tomorrow in the debate sort of connects it not only is strong not paying taxes but this is assigned an overall America's tilt with a well. Nobody that I think that's because of of that second winner in terms the conservative reaction I have seen a lot so far. So I was curious I win on the Fox News web page just right now and I have watched the fox TV coverage but on pot his web site. This tax story OK here is trumps response in the end they're mainly focused on trump saying it's made up and so so. It looks like the response from trump is going to be this is made up I'll be curious of other Republicans. Attacked the report are just sort of move bomb like it might be easier for the average Republican. To just talk about Barrett or talk about the debate as opposed to trying to weed in it is gala was giving yet. I think most Republican candidates know. Voters don't trust stroll along these kinds of characters news soon might be better to focus on policy focus on Barrett. Focus on the Democrats being socialist focus on anything else as opposed to trying to. Litigate this or. Port. Yankees are mine trump. Has not disclosed these taxes he is fought from them being released. And that itself as damaging him if you pull people listen the we should see presents gains taxes so. You know so we kind of knew what was in them was bad portrait that it. For some reason or another. Would you have thought they were it was this bad maybe I don't know right I think that we're still only only only scratch the surface of what the New York Times will. Wonder purporting or other news organizations. So you know I I think they can't really. The spin this in a way that is positive for them you can always try to spin things to a draw I mean I'm sure the people who are. Regular trump voting Fox News watchers will not be particularly bothered by this. Maybe some of them will say hey elect you know. So he was started figured out how to minimize his tax burden Mexican businessman right. Of people few people might say that that light. But Biden again has a fairly big lead protests figure how to gain ground and this woman helped need to put us and historical context. Why do we. House. Candidates for the presidency or other officers as well. Released their tax were. You have Richard Nixon to thank for. It's kind of ironic because at the time similarly he did not want to you can't overs tax returns. An IRS agent Hadley leaked to the press paid something fishy is Imus returns and then he says you know the American public has their right to decide whether or not their president to crack. And city disclose his returns and then ended up paying back taxes to the tune. 4470000. Plus interest. After releasing the returns and then enormous kind of set from there right that. We have we is the American public have the right to see how are you know top elected leaders governs there personal finances and his think it's interesting. That Nixon ended up having to pay act taxes after seeing his returns to the public bit stilted it and still on the election. I think tracks and different positions this year in terms. Promising to have done in 2016 not doing it behind in the polls already and it doesn't help pan. Yeah I mean just from like a good governance perspective how significant is having this information. I think that was part of dean barricades. Argument for why that should be released with good sourcing or not. So can we dig into that argument a little bit you know why does the American public need to see us. So I think like you know governors. Often people who run for governor or senate are also puts to release detects an episode of I use concern is if the tax returns summit so someone who's. In two TX. You know 121000200. Million dollars I think you wouldn't know dead because you'd want to know on some level. Are they going to govern in no way that health India acts like you know you move. This developer this much money you're going to like tilt policy in that direction let's Kennedy obviously we don't want our Paula it is kind of like we've we've they're going to be on the Tate. We kind of wanted to know that going. I mean that didn't you know I think there are other things to come out of these things often you've learned that they don't you know they don't donate must Sheridan. Or they make a lot of money from lobbying so so that things that come out the tax returns are honestly end up being. Sort of more gossipy. And being white like even the the equity hazy vodka as a as a consultant. If that violates tax law that's obviously bad have a tax law expert. But it pesticide got to be detailed it looks bad and probably seems politically bad it is an illegal is not and isn't just legal and now and he's directing. If he's directing government contracts now to vodka that's bad too but I don't think the tax returns home theater didn't help and it's. So this ends up getting into like a little bit of a gothic nature but I think overall goal of figuring out our politicians can up on the tape to be O people. Like we can't mean one thing about the one thing that's good for disrupting this story is. We've been talking about for four years basically your five years or sixty yours. Does he some hell is he somehow indebted to the Russians in this very very obvious way. And that that's in the times story at least and woods would elaborate so far they've released so far hasn't released yesterday. Did not suit some story of straw owes 200 million dollars to dias Ross rusted a look at our. Who talked of letter under Putin every two days like that's the sort of one good paper trump is it wasn't as bad as tentative. The worst we talked about this topic that's gonna that you wanted to know returns we urgency. Yet I mean the questions on and it's an up the start of this work you know. That this report causes it is whether or not president trump is a successful businessman and billionaire he sets about one question. Whether or not the projects and debts that he has engaged in pose a conflict of interest and past president and that. The third question was whether or not. This of these accounting practices were fully above sport where does most of his risk why at this point terms of those treaties separate. Restaurants I mean if he'd potentially is millions of dollars in debt that would seem like. Like he has a lot of personal risk in markets in which it could create conflict of interest. As fifty purposely evaded paying taxes and there's proof of that it's big problem under the eyes of the lock. But entrance of the election. I actually think it's this latter point oh BP he's not a good businessman may be his investments are actually what's put him in the whole. That hurts him more in the court of public opinion but she clearly could legally if he evaded paying taxes that's much much worse. So this story helped clarify actor needs. He's you know throughout his term he's been trying to stay he stays at his hotel where his properties. Basically forcing the reporters the Secret Service. He's he tried to host Michael Bates summit when it is properties in Florida. So if his properties are constantly losing huge amounts of money. Then had using the presidency to force people to. You know to join Bora tomorrow a lot of note come members there you wanna have access to trump. You have to go to one at his properties. Honestly within a strategy of just making more money to the presidency. It would also open a strategy my properties are currently losing money had a I'd make them profitable or at least less unprofitable certain accidents. That goes to adequate I think your second question is like why you know is this how are his financial interest tied in the presidency one wave might be. He's using the presidency to make his properties. More profitable is kind of what I think Adler and story in part of the story imply I don't think I knew. The story quiet his properties. Horror. Aggressively unprofitable which I don't think act fully understood. So out of all of the stories that we discussed we world figure out how the American public reacts with time. Various different angles here that I think we'll see more reporting on from the New York Times in the days and weeks pat. But let's Nevada talk about the upcoming confirmation fight over nominee Amy phony Barrett. On Saturday president trumps formally nominated seventh Circuit Court of Appeals judge Amy coney better to fill Ruth Bader Ginsburg's vacancy on the Supreme Court. It marks the beginning of what could be one of the fastest Supreme Court confirmation process he's in modern history. And republicans' goal is to fill that seat before the auction. So Sarah can you kick us off why is EB corny barracks profiles when it comes to her interpretations. Of. Law. Share so for starters it is really heart to Knoll. Howell a judge is going to roll once they join the court. But what we do you know in looking at ideological. Testament of how she would roll which is based on her rulings on the seventh circuit her ratings. Is that she will be the third most conservative justice on the court just to the left Samuel Alito. And Clarence Thomas and sending sure beats the rate of Trump's other two appointees corsets and cabin. And this is a huge jump in the supreme court's history since 1950 theory a million Thompson Devoe and Laura for honor and and a Whitaker. Had an eight piece last week looking at some the replacements in the court's history sensed early fifties and the should be the third largest. Again it's possible that parent. Does you no surprise us if she were to be on the court and rules a little bit more liberally than anticipated. But many of her writings whether it's on abortion or immigration had signaled. That she will follow a conservative interpretation of the law particularly as reformers Scalia. Clerk. What does is mean from a policy perspective. What kinds of American laws could we expect to change as a result of days 63 conservative majority. It's a two things. To keep in mind here one of which is really hard to measure and that's going to be that the cases that come before the court will change trade and you know as I was talking earlier at the outset here about her ideological leanings there isn't something that we look at each year to say okay of the cases the justices heard. Here was the liberal conservative split on them in terms at the issues. So one thing for and cents as you know. And the last two years abortion has taken a very incremental strategy right it's like pushing the number of weeks that an abortionist people. In various states. Now may be the conservative justice different decides. Maybe they're caught me be the justices will be more willing to overturn Roe vs. Wade and so they will push for a more aggressive agenda. And give it. Justices opportunities to overturn precedents and that's something you know we've written on before is a site. Is that the Roberts court was already overturning precedents at a higher rate than previous court say that could accelerate. But it's hard to know at this point to lake does that suddenly it's like a foot but the switch or is it market gradual chipping away at precedents. Because you know Roberts up until this point has been. A protector of precedent one teen to you know preserved this image of the court as a neutral arbiter however and that brings you to my second point. We now don't have a median swing justice rate it will take Roberts and someone else from the conservative and siding with hand animal that pearls and a decision in which the liberals are in the majority. And at this point it's not clear who that justices is it happen is of course it's uses parent. That I think. I think gone are the days the one median justice I think it'll be a coalition moving forward and we really don't know what that looks like. Meet the last time we talked about this was. Last Monday and there is pretty limited polling data on how Americans what process thing. This process to find a replacement for Ginsburg before the election and what do we know we as a little more polling data on her girls. So. The polls still show that when you asked people would you prefer her that the next president and ex congress make this pick. Or trump does is his strong preference for the next president. To make the panic wait until after the election results are now if you ask people how to kill but Amy. Coney bear it it's a bit more split evenly with a lot of undecideds. You got had a instant poll Alison do you approve or disapprove. Of her I think it was like. I'm curious from memorize like 39% approve 36%. Disapprove but a lot of Democrats were undecided so you'd imagine those numbers were kind of resemble the numbers overall. If you look at who you prefer to pick a Supreme Court pick Biden or trump. It's about the same Jacqui see in the top line numbers in polls of Biden's up by eight points nationally he also tends to lead by about eight points on that question. So look. Clearly there is territory to fight over here electorally. I think Republicans will want to emphasize. Bear its personal qualities I assume shall come across well in hearings are families and I story right. And Democrats can say dumb things sometimes about her. Own religion or her family whatever else right. And Democrats want to focus on what's this mean for. Obama care and for Roe vs. Wade. Trump I think frankly. Very stupidly this weekend senate between saying. Hey you know no big deal for obamacare is terminated because we'll have something to replace it right. That rhetoric was not helpful to Republicans in the mid terms which they lost badly in one of districts. And so you know the Biden campaign is very happy to have. Those arguments take place. What about process arguments Perry we've heard a lot from Democrats rush how this is a power grab. A yeah neat describes some of the other white wines that this is being. Debated along do we think there's gonna turn mortar policy argument that now process argument as we move through into the confirmation hearings. Absolutely well there to keep saying this is like the polling is good for the Democrats and three accomplices right. The idea that they're winning the election should make the pick is a pretty strong majority for a are pretty tropical island for that so that's the camera isn't. But you know bearing his criticize criticize John roberts' opinions. All four upholding Obama cares so like it seems clear to me that she would be. Likely to strike down obamacare so that's a place where poli and when he seventies suggested. Voters are pretty opposed to that so that's a place where again hurt you is now of the majority electorate is and also in terms of like. Her her comments suggests he's not a fan and the plea you know. She's picked she's she's come to properly conservative milieu the people who like her putting her seem to be very opposed to Roe vs. Wade. So the idea this year is not supportive or groovy evade and would likely look to limit of works of a lot more is not a crazy when and also the majority of the public supports this supports the right to an abortion support doesn't want ruby lead over overturn so. I assume they'll make. The win and let's just make the pick easy game and while portions of that all three arguments and essar which will be the leading one. But I think those three law coming out but I think the reality is. The Republicans are quite aware that. Bear this process Mena be the most popular wouldn't fourth down. But these are very important policy goals for the Republican Party to overturn obamacare. Into limit abortion and those are hard goals to accomplish. Legislatively. And a little bit easier particularly you know repealing obamacare is very hard to them to do politically. So you can have your series do it if something that there periods and having some I think on some level affected his of them maybe you know popular nomination. Doesn't really matter Republicans want to give he's six justice on the court for their policy heels and I think they're gonna work really hard to do it. Whatever loopholes they end up a process. Also. License from. There it's Reza me and what's he's done so far is that. As trump and Lindsey Graham it hinted if you election it disarm our election process that is has to be litigated in the courts. I think Barrett might he might Toledo and like Thomas. Someone who's Vieri inclined to accept the position of Republicans. And the and the electoral dispute gets of the court so in terms of winning the election might be. Useful to get Barrett on the court to use like they did in some of the portal for winning the election and for publishing policy goals even. Even if Biden as president I think there's a hugely important seek other Republicans I think they're gonna. Drive right through whatever the polls say and mixers and court as soon as possible. If there any veteran Democrat can do at this point to stop them. I don't think there's anything really that they can do it all mean they're gonna they're having a lot of debates about slowing down the senate hearings minute. I promise you Mitch McConnell is read the rules carefully as they have if not more so and I have no doubt we'll get this accomplished. It's just too important Nazi. Does anyone else think differently or does everyone agree that Republicans pretty much how the confirmation. There and back. I think it's in the bag in the system revelation comes out. But she has been somewhat dated before. Yeah I mean I don't really you know I mean the Al pennant lined up for her before they've needed to pick would be. I am. Even though they're saying it I am a little bit more skeptical about like. The imports of having your city for an electoral. Dispute I suppose I missed your morning go there. I think it's more that lawyer John Hunter well. He did it like he's kind of federalists. Society kind of endorsed. Judges would want to basically. Overturn a clear Biden mean and we were creative failed state. Doesn't seem necessarily. In line with. The type of computer they're envisioning right because if you have helped clear and yes I predict clear that the question is not clears that is the question about it it's complicated. Yeah I read or not if Biden wins by ten points and accurate. Is that clearly have their iphones or to planning I don't know I don't know or bargaining down to is cars emerging goes right to like people bring up. Florida. In 2000 and partisan like oh point 01% or something right. That was very closely we're kind of ambiguous who had won. So -- and our right to it does seem like for better or worse and conservative judicial movement. Is good a kind of long run thinking. And planning right. And kind of a conservative center right America. By dint of the judicial system whether kind of constitutional. Advantage Republicans have with the fact the senate and stuff like that I mean. That's like not a bad place rates not a bad place Republicans to be environment where. We're a of a 63 majority on the court now the senate they were you by six or seven points right. And if you kind of throw in a way to create an America where like basically we're not really democracy in sentence anymore because if it. Biden wins by five points Newsom bizarre press and throw things out right I mean everything's on the table I mean everything I mean. Secession is on the people hole right. Mass protests that are not just protest elected and economic doesn't go back to the to normal. In an environment like that right now and remotely kind of normal line up to the both say look at Latin America like people out of their lives and whatever else Franklin like. That's a sea change that is very. Profound. I'm getting at is if were not club very close election. Like a publicity go or that may be. Maybe Biden probably won the most votes and it's like very close at one state. I think you might be useful ahead on readiness he developed had a absentee ballots you county and state index you know I'd rather have. I hear it's you're Republican voted by pocket did not happen this site is that's ten all I'm saying it's like I think. That's a great person have there. We cannot just take trump to summits that pat has worked his words. It he expects the election to go to the Supreme Court and he wanted to have nine justices. In the event of that happening now I mean he could be somewhat delusional about the circumstances under which it arrives at the Supreme Court. But that is what he sat. Verbatim and basically. Trio and even though I know I sat at the top that she would be more conservative. Than. Out in the way that you anticipate if your trop and have it be as transactional. Via in the one all on say is like you know there's also a sense in which because trump. Talks. So in artfully I hate that term about the Supreme Court right I mean there's a sense of which I don't overlook this. There were a lot of surprising rulings from the Supreme Court. This summer where they were better for liberals and liberals expected and I wish that were factored in new account. In 63 and 54 after bear right I think that when affecting people's decision making. A little bit that your Pryor's about how the Roberts court would behave werder. We're a little bit off right. In Roberts I'd be concerned about the long term and if they artists say okay we'll organist lockdown this challenge from from. Now we have credibility now may be. Now maybe there's actually less amendment toward court packing among Democrats right on this in just 63 can be fair enough right. Yet other thing here is it might be that we see less of Robert citing with liberals now because as I said earlier another conservative justice would have to. But as the Chief Justice he cancer rate in the majority opinion if he's in the majority rates if he citing more conservatives need to also make the argument then. That may be some of their rulings are more measured because rappers as in the majority in it won't be the sweet being precedents knocked down. As is also being discussed are now. So like so if I am Tomlin errors I'm not excited about the idea that the media injustice is now Ret Kavanagh. Who act basically suggested it was a sex it's on life television repeatedly. So that's maybe what I'm like I think that bid viewed it Kavanagh is the million justice them out right. And I think Kavanagh cares what the court's reputation to from what I've heard him say like any Kavanagh not that dissimilar from Roberts I think. On the east on these rulings were Roberts joined the liberals are often were strong side me. On the census to outside data that we egregious argument that it make any sense and Roberts was like yeah I'm not gonna sign onto that. And I think Kavanagh might be the same way yeah I think there's a I think is is not a is that an easy thing to note like what they're gonna rule I think Kavanagh Roberts. Course it is an accident are people who want to be seen as principal. And you care about the court's. Like I would say bluntly Alito takes about it was and every on every issue I just don't think it has a lot of debate there. So by acting Barrett my guess is loosening similar so. It's is releasing to watts like this but this scenario NASA is gonna happen where the election results are. Plausibly clothes were read about what's your ego or situation I think yacht that are very unlikely because Biden leaves so large. In part but if I yet but I think it's interesting question only because it goes to the president like. We wrote about estimate the stadium site in effect like you do it was 63 majority court like what does it look like a lot of issues in the and I think it is right that they don't want to look. Like crazy extremists or do stupid things that'll but I also think it's like. We you look at these are people who worked in picked by the federal sides and accidentally our candidate did in the Republican Party. And then that's the death of of the basic questions like where we're does that line. Sit it in like this and like for Roberts clearly there are lines he walked Ross cabin on the senate has made some relief and instincts will. I don't know we're enough we do we have an accident my question is going forward to be have. So the five Republicans John Roberts in three Democrats Ergen we have six Republicans. Three Democrats do we have. Corsets. Roberts and capped it we have three cannot Republicans three Democrats. And corsets and Kevin on Roberts and decide base in the case that status. But again where the war games are released in question now at this 63. Because now the Republicans in period they decide on we wanna be Republican on every used to they can win. Every issue but I Essen. You're gonna like there was alluding to you gonna have litigants. Police released sort of be arguments now because that's what's wrong that the truck was hinting at Spectra Lindsey Graham all the into the we have six Republicans now Wilson admitted being there on arts even now they're they're gonna win the election for us in. I don't think they're right about debt I think that's an extreme case I think knees threatened trump says things that are not helping work IQ. But I am curious looking at Mike Kavanagh. What is that I mean outside when it's due in a case that is has the more complicated mixture of law. And partisanship I had an audience and a question. Yet I vehicles are near historic role president serves us a little in the sense that the last time there was a national debate about quirk acting grand FDR. In the thirties. That debate alone was basically enough to get justices to stop overturning FDR's legislation. And so there is something up if history. Institutionalize. On the court fearing it the courts begin our integrity be in jeopardy and acting accordingly art Roberts isn't the first one to direct virus Kennedy before hand there was. You know. It's harder to know rate is like how the court will actually rule on them they do you think. The types of cases the types of challenges are going to be pushing in a rightward direction the ashen will be how does the court land up Matt. Yeah. All right well all very. Interest thing. Interests and different components at play here. I think sometime in the future we can talk about Democrats or at least activists on the last. Suggesting court packing of things like Matt. And whether or not there's any likelihood of that happening should they win the senate and presidency before we do now. I want to. Generic tease the debate tomorrow night a little bit. What are we watching for. I think I'm looking for. Does Biden is leading citizens by I didn't make any sort of clear obvious mistake. Hurts him. I think I'm curious. You have to imagine Biden's going to be asked some combination of reparations. Filibuster reform and court packing and he seems to and yes and he doesn't want to say. Those ideas are freaking terrible and I'm not for them I think he would and I if it hadn't given nuanced answer. Did to the Missouri electorate against all those things. Parts of Biden's base for those things so I think you really give an answer on. Court packing filibuster reparations. I don't think you want to give. Unequivocal knows if your Biden and that's going to be our place to be that being those things might come up. Yeah I mean. Plus slant to everything period Saddam as trump need to game changer Rea Blakey is down in the polls. Then I've I've been curious and watching like you know would chatter around parents helped him at all on the approval numbers are in the polls we haven't seen that yet. I thought maybe some. The protests this summer when it turned violent parts of the country maybe that would help him it did not. So what he continue Hulu tomorrow night's move the needle is a real question in my mind but in theory he needs that to happen. Hands so I'll be watching to see if I think he's you know really eat any ground work for the case for voting for him and that I think that requires appealing to people who are outside of his base and as we've talked about. That's not a strong point but he really needs to do attic think and chip away at some of Biden's support he has everything. And in Toulouse cooking into tomorrow where. Fight and starting at a ferry. Better. Answer questions Sarah what is from a sound like he's trying to expand. Outset of his days what would that look like to you will would be obscure acts I've forgotten what they hear that Shriver often what does it look like you and you think. That Mexican question I mean to some extent I think he saw that it at clay dirt and RNC and they are trying to have a different array of speakers the cult at first we are even if that -- be as we talked about and was targeted more toward its weight people on the sucker to say hey their Republican Party isn't racist. But I think you know he's got to make some appeals to women he's losing Mary he's losing with older voters I mean it's just like democratic across demographic there's attrition among men as well particularly white men. He has to do some thing. Maybe it's speaking on the economy. Maybe he you know has a bombshell development about the vaccine and where that is that the corona virus tomorrow. He's got it is something that speaks to. The strain of his past four years and to what it is about the next four at that he makes the most sense and Biden doesn't have a plan. I mean in some ways I think the first debate is traditionally more about the challenger. Joseph Biden often plays a fairly background role of this campaign. And it's to Joseph Biden's. Benefit maybe not because he's a bad campaign is not a spectacular campaign Republicans like Compton's to get himself in trouble and one of the news is negative for triumph for understandable reasons. You know I mean. Historically first debates tend to new numbers for the challenger Rodney in 2012 mechanical example that actually go back Kari Hinton. And are close enough for years this is actually you know usually that challenging party. Gets a limit reduced income and does kinda rusty and like he's now on a level playing field. With the challenger you know amateur that launched applies here as much in some ways trump history to record as. A challenger has an insurgent. But still that's there's over the empirical. Data there. But yet you know I mean Biden has been an uneven performer in debates. Yeah if he kind of in expectations are I guess fairly low for that reason and because the term campaign. Keep saying we are things like is he on drugs or you know. Can answering the couple's it was together sleepy Joseph. So I guess the commitments that Winston as like if Biden goes in this kind of merely competent and that will reassure some. Some voters I suppose I'd buy into that some extent. But he's also to be three is pretty bad. You know he had the first half Duchardt primary debates he exit poll people have a cut and pasted and he was often. Among the lowest received candidates and so he's not terribly consistent debater. You know both camps have a temper and go after it a little bit. I'm not sure that necessarily hurt. Biden and an ethics and and potential little there firing as some stuff like that happen like but you know by month's election be referendum. On trump. And he wants kind of stand in the way and act and think Biden's a decent competent guy that you can feel. Good about voting for six voting for war if you think the country's head in the right direction which most people do right. And you can imagine and there are ways that. Biden neither enhances that view work or undermines it depending in his performance. All right well we will be back with fuel leaked tomorrow night rolls are going to be polling this debate to see our respondents think. The two candidates students are I don't think we'll have the results for everybody. To use an art but I'm those later on on the web site. But that's it for now says thank you name. Thank you Galen dates Barrett. That's anti user. Thinks Galen. My name is due entered attorney chow is in the control room. Claire but he Gary Curtis. Is on audio editing you can get in touch what emailing us at pod cast at 530 dot com you can also of course treated us with questions or comments. If your fan of the show leaders of rating or review in the apple podcast store or tell someone about us. Thanks for listening and rules news. A.

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