The Math Behind March Madness

The team over at FirveThirtyEight take you through the math behind March Madness.
24:13 | 03/16/16

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Transcript for The Math Behind March Madness
Learning a little bit about March Madness and hopefully your brackets because I'm not very wilders that March Madness I accidentally meet. Less than I think. Nothing says she's an assist meats is doing a fever and you watching at home or office wouldn't be feeling doing can canosa mean do we got a lot of records together. The candidates we have two people who are we smarter than combined. In here from 538. This is one of the coal fields Africa's entire things one big dry erase board so that's my. Nothing's permanent mystery to me copies here Quigley enough of the secret meetings if and it. Under an up. Yeah. Saying okay. I got credit for us here. It is during a 38 extraordinary Walt picky. The equally extraordinary campaign. I felt it. They have constructed for a while we come off and of the year and I one planes don't block the brackets I think the point we do when he decided that they hand. Dry and an entire NCAA March Madness bracket or at all sixty we're teams. Are on here spell correctly. In three seems to me a little who who is. Who's puke who. That Fareed. Heard they're coming to wow. We do they know they're not making. All. I love that you free hand at yeah amazing just let them. Yeah. Wasn't even rescued is gonna do this anywhere I actually do you. Are hit banks and you have more questions than idea I think pies take work but that it. What did you what you wind up their batteries include what you do seriously he's up to you look at at this rate here all the teams are represented. Then one any kind of goes from here to the semifinals. Finalist but how would you start. In Butler reports that the angels to borrow it popular enough but. See it and ordering based on the very year as yes. There's one me. One well so it. An article coast university. Next. The Florida gulf and they never I think we well be after an and it meets this seeded number two. Also if he'd seen no one's best care for. Us this program. It's the worst team in this. Which are. And this fact that it's yours. It's at ain't anything yet and if that there prevent. Benedict the grades that guides and they don't Benedict then it. So while it is OK you NCs seat number one obviously they're gonna go to the finals if there credible. It and you know what. Other popular that this is an apartment is lifers as this homeless. That's. You know. Yes it would be. Funds going step by step through the bracket and picking who you think what you become personally attached to these access. Late Margot Collins refuted see you diamonds all the numbers any cigarette probability thing. Try to come up with a reason why each could win in the case there's not many reasons for Gulf Coast in some cases. The team with a lower C we'll actually be more like you where you are. Nobody is a big sports you think like in and you get like there is there really geeky side this board that this is that theory is that has been at listener you're actually stands. Geographic center that these horrible on because I could never make any sports teams so heavily the other end doing really blossom buzzing about who you know it and I was you don't race. It exactly I think we brokers what her raw video that your armed IRS expects. That. I do like the bubble letters across the there's a market that lay there it's usually aren't they add noise. You know. Then vote so I'm getting two brackets this year to preventing heart bracket and bracket you and I are bracket that's what I want to win but they actually had. And then it's up to fill out my head Brack that's for you guys coming to address. Yeah. And the right place. So let's walk us through for all of that still waiting their brackets walk us through we you'd think some of the pluggable look at Al other seeded number one there's if that he's you know one you. That obviously that's not happened last year is any indication where some of the big upset that you see happen. So I think the biggest upset that we. Or is between Oregon State and Virginia. Easy you down there it's at seven vs ten match in the west region. And we think that these you actually probably it says it needs 75% chance of winning even there at the lower seed team. The reason why is because we're gonna stay in our opinion and it can have all the metrics. During the season. With senior way too high the committee they should have been probably about thirteen C it's that there are seventy. NBC it was also is needed a little bit too low at ten. And so because you know their past kind of crimes you get VCU being if they want it would be kinda fake upset. They weren't actually the worst team they just were seen at lower because the committee. You know made sense that one of their more questionable decisions. And and we have a lot of lake. People talk about you know seed companies. So the five's twelfth as one that's like super popular people. Have done in numbers I think lake at least 112. B five every year maybe you know every so often two or three night and plan. But in this case the 125 matchups seem a little bit. Weaker than usual for the twelfth from their perspective in terms of upsets. I think. Any career. I have to sell it ironic that. Circular six statements they mean game over that days. There. And we have about one split to you players air to succeed. They actually were an undersea too we fell eight were played at the level of the team that ranked third. Six. And so that's a little bit about how low which was rated relative to their C as well. Stipulate that. Quick but there. The Texas northern Iowa in his lets danger to favorite team Texas. But. Notre Dame against the winner Michigan health and that side seems like it could be you know work. I think we have been fair to blame game tonight. They've yet seen Hawkins act and that's a game that might. The most exciting ones both ones the entire first round even though it's six verses eleven. Exact probably isn't seeded Lindsay are the big east champs and certainly we're team it it probably better that never in my vehicle there's it. See their minds at six assets that you. Probably won't go wrong at least one of those to be. Knowing which is the right pick is are your tax. Taking it expects. I guess. Yes it's. It's from my purpose it do it mythical name well. So that. They are hard hit I don't know on this this is. And colored uniforms and equipment and it's clear. You lied to Boston with unlimited has no I didn't. Bloc is having here let's take a letter happening in the east and midwest. So in east. Might properly. That plane but. If you are upset with our six Latin hit over Wisconsin with and protecting it get that. Reasonable chance of happening but Wisconsin is but after even though the loss of people's lives today. It's him last year. This is. I think the east is the second strongest. Region in in the country UNC isn't really good team top. Doesn't have the potential for in the end it CE UNC. In this in the third. And that would be a hugely historic matchup in to get that India had to go to Kentucky in the second round which is also match. Two of the winningest and most storied programs in college basketball history Taki. Is no thoughts this year they were seeded four but we felt like they were probably the sixth best team in the whole country. In so you know they're probably better that we're seeding just this sixteen teams. So those are the team that my eye on seen here as day to see. Probably isn't actually as good as Kentucky and might it's it is and a but then UNC is sort of the stand. This region and in West Virginia is making thinking. We have them I think advancing all over again facing UNC the bracket they according to favorites. So. 01 odds are one of those teams that I mentioned is probably Gannett birds from best buy every house commerce service. A visionary idea. That would have been fitting given the uncertainty of hearts that. I feel like we did test then on it he didn't soaking up. Alison everything that is you know pop quiz so what's my upset that I keep this burst. You know in the western. History. And San Francisco Austin is not only about West Virginia but you Mission Hills they're tied for first and Notre Dame. He's definitely fluctuating asked. But not necessarily. Yet the oh Clooney doing very well who. That's it I'm talking about right now guys and you know what is that ultimately this if it is it species say hey art yet is going it. Hate earth is what what that act as if don't get an epic rain and keys Oakland that sound right don't have the right on there was a very. Let it or Phoenix behavior is yours. Emerson College. We don't ask bowl once. Though yes dole will Everett read it so our our brackets out weeks ago. That buys that you won't need to start her month while the story in east. Maker expects I don't know I'll let you that you don't want it. Are so ordered overrated you see at the top. Our models actually puts out its size. I don't wanna do that don't want to misrepresent. And US secrets are out and we actually had that nine seed Providence as being written now. And it's on it made me do to you. Travel distance between two teams are model it takes. Not just how good the two teams are the things like how part of they have to go to their games. This is east regional southern cal Providence Providence closer to the location of the game and that becoming a factor there. So Indiana leaving them on Staten pressure. We give that a whopping 88% probability of happening. Kentucky we think even better we stated that 90% chance and stoning or. And we have. We think Michigan is gonna win the plane and semi circle. He. And that we think Notre Dame has a 66%. Chance be whichever team. They do it that facing. And probably it. Is hurting it you do you pretty good. But as the mobile area well they're also pretty good basketball most years they had what they get it right and that feeding tube and yet they now. We get a chance. Brackets that game is really interest team and it will while UConn is the undefeated theater the NCAA women's bracket. They're the runner up would be in this case your interest and if you do in his practice. I would UConn for one years ago to have a little bit of credit here oh with a one game we too loud that you go to OK I don't rockets that notes that youngsters. Gosh it was rather gun to school over the loud and not are anything but awesome thing ever celebrity name plates yourself yeah Kendra. That's very relaxing I let this cigarette and it is different for her. So West Virginia Wednesday as an 85% chance at beating mr. Austin. We think Wisconsin is 63% favored over Pitt but Beckett game looking for. These first and ten over seven says that might be one of those seven and that's right. I have a lesson this year. And you know once when it's at 60%. Worth favorites of 40% for the underdog that's when moderator for fear thinking like this could actually rate in a certain direction if it's. You know and other factors in for instance. Closer today it today east regional and Wisconsin. Case and then finally 94% to be ex. Take. Tremendous upset for murder. There. That we were cut through the rest of the bracket. We think you see. In the Providence we say humans as 90% chance getting to that stage. Well there cargo all the ways to meet you full. We also think that the favorite Kentucky. Should be. And then you right next. The model it's. The exits it is 60% chance of that happening. It. And there. Then between Notre Dame and West Virginia we have Westford Ayers. Have them. Nine years. And and between Xavier and Wisconsin. We Xavier the pretty things me fair and we think that favorite. Actually. I think this erase that western US all ran its annual if you misspoke about it felt like them. Made in the state. Western yeah WSB. A exit. Very. Here is just my. And so outline bill stated we have this these two that's. I feel in numbers not. Yeah let's admit they're OK so on the lot Virginia favored over yet. Got Butler favored really. Purdue heavily favored over its. And more. I it's. Not much. Favored to be seen one. Pain. Again weapons and they. Here. 87%. Favored over Fresno it's. This date Syracuse game I think most. Perhaps the most it was my choice the most exciting the first closed and that's why I'm at yankees. Well I had Dayton. Q percent nine. And box. We think Dayton's gonna move on very good chance Syracuse moves on though and the Michigan State no trouble against middle Tennessee there. Since then yes standout at the bottom we're gonna go with Michigan State moving on over Dayton. Gonna go with Utah and Oregon Zack. We're gonna go wins for do as the favorites. Over Iowa State and then Virginia. Pencil them in Walt's home state school. Movement on and we also had UB eight beating Purdue. In the next round. I know right. And then Michigan State moving on and this is going to be great match up you VA vs Michigan State won in two in this. Crack a lot of people thought Michigan State was actually as good as the one seen. An incident in a one seat in a different region instead we'll get seen and faceoff with the final four. And you're agreeing with everything you -- so far this looks like you have some I have some debates if you had you know limit keep to myself I'll go all we can wait for those until before we pick our our I'll allow you to go on a get out of the party this way you have money and a film and real -- the state of aviation intends to. Okay Syria Kansas over Austin. UConn slightly favored over Colorado UConn is a pick that a lot of people have. Go to Ghana team here Huskies the radio station yeah but it could go to Colorado to its close to a toss up and if you're a bracket where a bunch of people are kind of writing UConn again. They went into their conference tournament and won in the last time they did that. They ended up winning instantly determine off of that momentum so there could be a bunch of people kind of thinking on this this could be a repeat of that. In our model says probably don't count on things like that repeating. It was an unlikely I loved doing it every avid gardener Maryland. We got cal bill Mallon we got Wichita State in a toss up there we've got Miami. We have Iowa. And Villanova. And then in that match up we got Villanova winning. You can't write fast enough yet who Miami. In favor of over which a time California fair to come up over Maryland. Kansas. And then Kansas moving on from there. Would Villanova favored things Kansas. And then the favorite in that matchup is. It's it's not great things talking right there and then for final region we're gonna go organ over. Southern University. As their favorite there too in the play and in the onset Cincinnati favored to beat scenes us. It's hurts me as a Philly native. Baylor. Over Yale. Is our favorite Darryl though it's reasonably close do you heavy favorites of UNC to. Texas we have to beat northern Iowa if Texas saying in big favorites over Green Day. We have DCU like I said earlier favored to pull the upset over -- state and Oklahoma. No trouble with the fifteen seed cal state and then stand in that area we have Oklahoma moving on. It takes seen him over Texas. Texas we have duke favored to move on. And we also have or in the organ Q class we have org favored. We also have Oklahoma favored. And then in the battle between the number one the number two seed we have the TC favored Oklahoma we say is can make the final four that reads. And for your other Q and management final fours were UNC. Over West Virginia and then Michigan State pull the upset our own University of Virginia. And so. And just that the bracket I. Local practice UNC in Michigan Tuesday. Michigan State. Can't. Season note that night and the threatening human educated and it. Marine green verses. Carry wrinkle up and going way. Way. Early waivers is dream. It is Lu UNC. And believe my. Heart into what you love the light blue. Look I do absolutely adamantly. Pickering that might not lightly lives let's go with you it's he's gonna win it all if you know what they're all the problems there. Kinda. The humans you all the ladies who you have in the other one Kansas vs. Sorry in. Oh Oklahoma way that sun. Okay. Okay. And a thirty day Wednesday that Kansas is favored growth but it you know and by thirty it's wrong. I'm right. Think that's implicated plate now that as much as you can model it it you know Britain this. It's mark and oh yes and it lasted it and the number. Oh yeah I mean your odds picking up her racket here one in the trillions so. Better yet what we're going to be wrong more often we're right and ends at one of the things you wanna take into account is also. How long do you think the other people they playing against him happy and Kate you think you can kind of when the mind game against them because a lot of these pools. You get points but there at other people get points to if they make the same pickets you so the Smart strategy might be depict. The highest rated team that you can kind of see other people not picking her you when it kind of go against the crowd that still pick a team that has a chance to. That's probably the best bet especially if you're bigger pool meters this whole thing. It I'm it does take a picture this and then fill out. My in the bracket is the way I didn't according to my heart that is probably not Smart. At Maryland. Going offer. At Philly they ever had a year. And I want to want to believe that moment here. But even. Oh. So based on very intense search when it comes to this week the leader of the wildcat is cute animal in this that an Aston Villa terror yet but that there is accused. That's got on the other side of Wisconsin so in my heart racket I had Villanova it was. You who wins. Who wins that battle groups back and got a yen pentagon accuracy of those that I believe there are no. I only get him back to steal and hang out these carriages walk around. And it fair. That my acting correctly in go to factory. For those watching at home they wanna get this and not have to take a picture disagreeing they can actually you know it's okay cool stuff in the model also wary and with a different teams to answer hats IRA. Inside think yeah that. I don't wanna say thank you again bird making me feel like the one person room who has no idea what he's done in the state I was hoping you would feel like an expert now we've given you the crash course I don't. That we nothing to do if you're teaching ability you you're great teacher you're I appreciate the effort everything I thought no idea I'm basically gonna have to watch these teams right. And can you let out for myself sir just watch the games. This weekend. Can get a feel for it they probably have brackets the can start the second weekend right and maybe he'll be more well versed at the scene the teams play. Late bloomer and I got it is late blooming Brackett added and he said to be TV screens on what all these games a lot of credit that on the you know there's only 63 in the first. It's not that at the weekend but he didn't want to think house of cards him and thank you very much use them.

This transcript has been automatically generated and may not be 100% accurate.

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