Transcript for Experts discuss how Florida, other swing states will vote on election day
Now to the race to the finish line. Donald Trump a Joe Biden firing up final strategies to win over voters. Which battleground states are likely to flip in their favor? A new ABC news/"washington post" poll showing Biden with a 17-point lead in Wisconsin. In Michigan, Biden ahead by 7 points. The latest quinnipiac poll showing Biden holding a 17-point national lead over trump. I spoke with Sara Fagen, CEO of deep root analytics, and Yvette Simpson, CEO of democracy in America. Sara, first question to you. The president is lagging in the polls since his win four years ago a lot of people are wary about poll numbers. Trump says they're fake. Do you think he could pull off a win despite being behind, and how much does Biden's high favorability play a role here? I do think that people are frustrated with polling because of the 2016, although Hillary Clinton won the popular vote in 2016 and the national polls called that. The state polls are off for a variety of reasons, which I think are still problems today. I think some of them are more accurate than others. But there's a lot more state polling in this election, in part because of what happened in 2016. So I think you look at an average, and that's how you determine really where the race stands. In terms of the vice president's favorability, this is a very different election than 2016. Hillary Clinton was underwater. She and Donald Trump were both unfavorable on election day by a majority of voters. That's not the case with Joe Biden right now. He's got about a 50% favorable rating. Challengers typically get vote share around their favorable ratings. Yvette, several traditionally red states like Georgia and Arizona are possibly trending blue. How have demographic changes in these states impacted the political landscape? What we've seen is a lot of energy, especially among black and brown voters in Georgia and Arizona. We've been activating black and brown voters for months who are energized to come out and support vice president Biden. So I think the big difference we're seeing is we're seeing a rise in the number of voters of color, particularly women of color, in states that we traditionally don't win. Folks are worried about Donald Trump getting another four years, and that has really caused people not only to be motivated themselves. We're seeing people go out and bring their whole families, bring their communities. Sara, the fact that Biden has made these traditionally red states competitive means trump has to campaign more. But does he have the bandwidth and the money, and what's the Ory strategy for him? He has the money. Presidential races I don't think -- money's not the most important factor. There's such -- they're so driven by earned media. The demographics of the country are changing, but changing in both directions, you know. You see states like Georgia and Arizona. Particularly around the large they're youngerer, they're more affluent, they're less white, a demographic today more in line with the demographic today. The same was true in the industrial midwest. They're older, they're whiter, they tend to have less education, they tend to be more base trump voters. And so there's very much a scenario where we could be surprised on election night, where in Georgia or in Arizona, which have been historically more Republican, go democratic. Whereas Michigan or Pennsylvania, where the vice president is probably up 6 to 8 points in both of those states today, actually goes for trump. Sara, a follow-up to that. What's a must-win state for the president, do you think? I think all roads for president trump lead through Florida. There's really no path for trump to be elected president if he does not win Florida. If he does win Florida, he still has a more narrow path than the vice president. But that is an important starting point. Yvette, do you agree with that math? For you does it come downo Florida or other states you're going to be watching closely Tuesday? Florida matters, Byron. I want to say the advantage right now for Florida is us. There's 43% increase in color voters this cycle over 2016, 330,000 more women of color voters voting this election, voting Y. And those a democratic-lning voters. We actually think Florida is in play. One silver lining for president trump is Republicans significantly outregister Democrats in this -- this year, so they've added over 100,000 more voters to the rolls. Which typically is indicative of a better ground game. Trump has been making lots of campaign stops battleground states, Biden as well. We're six days out. What can both men do at this point to get out the vote, get out their base, and more? Right or wrong, one of the decisions the trump campaign made in the early days of the covid pandemic is they weren't shutting down their campaign. They've been out doing events, they've had a ground game. The Biden campaign has only recently started putting people on the ground in these states. And I think in a close election that can have an impact. And trump I think has the advantage overall. I will say for Biden, one of the things that's been great is him showing up in places where you don't expect him. I think him going to places like Georgia where he needs to show strength, where we can actually win. In Iowa where we need to win I think that's going to pay off very well in the days leading up to and certainly on election day. Yvette, Sara, thank you as always. Good to see you. Thank you, Byron.
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