Transcript for 'Do I buy that we're down to a big 3? Not quite': Nate Silver
that it's become a three-way race. If you look at the poling right now, that's what it is. It's Biden, Warren and Sanders. There's no one breaking out of single digits. That was congressman Seth Boulton after he dropped out of race for the white house last month. 20 candidates still in the race. Our new poll show the top three breaking away from the pack. A political headline earlier this week declared it's now Biden, Warren, Sanders and everyone else. We asked 538's Nate silver do you buy that? Yeah. It's only September. Nobody is voting until February. If you're poling in the low single digits right now, I have bad news for you. You are probably toast. According to our analysis in the past 40 years Jimmy Carter in 1976 was the only candidate to be polling at less than 5% and win the nomination. For kamala Harris and Pete buttigieg things are more viable. Harris has raised a fair amount of money. She has the second most endorsements in the field after Joe Biden. If Biden were to lose support among black voters, she might capitalize. For buttigieg, he has a big war chest and strong favorability ratings. Don't forget John Kerry and bill Clinton polled similarly and came back to win. There's no particular reason to expect voters to come running to candidates like booker or Castro or Beto or klobuchar if they haven't so far. Do I find we're down to a big three? Almost, but not quite. You have to include Harris. Buttigieg may be not be in great shape, but still has room to grow. Let's call it four and a half. That's Nate. Nate will have more on his take of the field tomorrow morning. DNC chair Tom Perez and our
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