Transcript for Dems have '60 to 70% chance of flipping the Senate': Nate Silver on 538 forecast
We can't pick and choose when big decisions are forced upon us by things that we didn't anticipate, the election is no reason to dodge our responsibility and not go forward with a well-qualified nominee. Our first job is to get the majority back and everything is on the table. My senate democratic colleagues and candidates know America needs some change. We're going to figure out the best way to do it. Supreme court confirmation showdown, now the latest fight in the senate control. The GOP holds a three-seat margin now. But polls show Democrats threat to flip several seats. Here's Nate silver. Fivethirtyeight senate model recently launched to address this very question, the Democrats are favored to win the senate, but just barely. Democrats have been polling quite well in several seats in Arizona and Colorado. But also in places like, south Carolina, Kansas and Montana and Alaska that would be a bigger upset. They have 12 legitimate pickup opportunities. They also face some fairly difficult conditions, most of the competitive conditions are in red states, and there are only two Republican senators up for re-election this year, Colorado's Cory Gardner and Maine's Susan Collins. In states won by himry Clinton. Democrats need either three or four pickups to claim the senate depending on if they win the presidency. That assumes they hold every seat of their own, which they probably won't. Democrat Doug Jones is an underdog in Alabama where he's facing former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville. We're talking about four or five pickups instead. Now, winning four out of five of 12 opportunities is very doable. But few of those races are sure things. In fact, one of the most likely outcomes in our forecast is a 50/50 seat. -- Split. Which could come down to whether kamala Harris or Mike pence is vice president in January. 60% of 70% chance of flipping the senate. That's not bad, but we do need to see more polling especially in red states where a supreme court fight could helpful to GOP incumbents.
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