Nate Silver on FiveThirtyEight's Election Day Forecast

FiveThirtyEight founder and editor-in-chief Nate Silver thinks both candidates still have their work cut out for them ahead of Election Day.
4:39 | 11/06/16

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Transcript for Nate Silver on FiveThirtyEight's Election Day Forecast
Money and more on where the race stands right now. From the forecasting guru Nate Silver a 538 make thanks for coming in C major bones. In 20082012. Nailed the election for Barack Obama like everyone else he missed. Donald Trump in the primary so where does your forecast have the race right now so we show about a three point lead nationally for Clinton and she's about a two to one favorite. The Electoral College map is actually less solid for Clinton and it was for a bomb four years ago where four years ago we Obama ahead in states totaling 320 some. Electoral votes Clinton has about 27. Away from potentially losing Electoral College you'd rather be in her shoes then Donald Trump's but it's not a terribly. Safe positioning giver about a 65 point seven about. Danced to it to win that this is occasionally get to though because you say she hasn't courting your polling analysis. About a three point lead that was about where present Obama was beaten to sunny before the election four years ago yet I wanna put this up on the board. Right now at that time you show that he had an 85 point 1% chance. Winning social wanted to contrast right there. So Clinton's a lot weaker in the midwest where four years ago present Obama was leading in Ohio by four points Clinton probably a couple of points. Behind their Iowa maybe the best pull the country. The -- mr. power poll showed her down seven points in Iowa a station probably lose. So the Democrats Clinton don't actually work as well you underperform. Among white. Non college voters that's a good even though the national polling is about the same even though so let's contested electoral college and her Electoral College polling in the swing states is little bit weaker. Then Obama so in some sense. It's a deceptively. Large or small lead for Clinton in some ways where's Obama actually had a bigger lead electorally and you'd think. The other thing too is that we see lots of polls show numbers like Clinton 44%. Trump 40%. If you only have 44% of the vote that means you're vulnerable. If most the undecideds break in a certain way wears four years ago it was like Obama 49. Romney 46 so in that sense both candidates. Still need good turnout on Election Day and so have their work cut out for them this year we've seen a very high early thought about 41 million Americans aboard the did you really. Paid that much attention to the yearly well look our model is designed to look at the public polling and if you wanna look at anything else that you won their early vote. Then that's fine and I think they're definitely some decent size for Democrats in Nevada for example but Democrats also into when he fourteen. Told themselves lot of stories about how they be saved by the early though and then got wiped out across the board the mid terms a polled actually overestimate how well Democrats would do so I'd be. A little bit careful with the exception of Nevada which is a hard state to poll. You know. That should be incorporated in theory in the polling numbers another invariably we see here right now there have been a lot of lot of other forecasts out there Princeton election consortium GAAP Huffington Post several others. And New York Times yours is much more bullish for Donald Trump. And an M more cautious on Hillary and then there are so why. Because we think we have a good process and not let you know some forecasts that show Clinton within 98. For 99% chance of winning. That doesn't pass a common sense test which is that we've seen lots of elections where there's about. A three point pulling air in 2012 in fact Obama beat his pulls many swing states by about three points. If Clinton were to beat her post by three points new C. Simply might call a borderline landslide but it goes the other way and all of a sudden. Trump could very easily win the electoral college and it's it's all based on history people of different ways of interpreting history but. You know. If you think a three point lead is going to be safe 98 and dynamics at a time and you probably didn't design. The model in a good way 48 hours before the final votes wondering I don't run so we can't know what an unknown unknown as yet what about the known unknowns what do you pay most attention to. I mean look. It is true that Democrats have a larger base and so if Clinton gets her voters to turnout and the weakest part of that might be African Americans who turned out very big number to present Obama. Four years ago. An eight years ago maybe millennial voters. If they turn out in big numbers and their better side for Democrats in states like Florida and North Carolina recently then she's in a pretty safe position. If they don't know if there is a big white working class vote for trump if you see. Some suburban Republicans convert back to trumpet last minute because he's been relatively quiet. On the campaign trail that's a case in which he could lose potential even states like Colorado. That seems safer Clinton and she'll probably win but you've seen tightening in many different states and so there's a scenario where two by which she winds up a little bit. Short of enough electoral votes it's over thanks to Washington she'll be joining us to see night. As well we'll be right back there past rounds.

This transcript has been automatically generated and may not be 100% accurate.

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