Transcript for Why Texas isn't a swing state -- yet : FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver
Ten democratic presidential candidates campaign in Texas on Friday hoping to win the support of a key national teacher's union. A recent Quinnipiac University poll shows former vice president Joseph Biden. Polling four points ahead of president trump in Texas. And it when he eighteen a Democrat NATO over our nearly defeated longtime Republican senator Ted Cruz. So could traditionally red taxes become a swing state in 22 when he. We asked 530 eight's Nate Silver do you buy that first let's start with making the case for why Texas might be used when state. And by the way Texas a 37 collect. So when it. Let's it's a pretty big deal number one it certainly has gotten closer and recent elections Hillary Clinton lost it by nine points compared to Barack Obama losing by nearly sixteen points and when he twelve. A bit more impressively battle over lost Texas by only three points typically two point six points to Ted Cruz also demographically if you came down from outer space and ground in Texas you might think this a click the purple state given what I know about her ex what's most. That's made up 3% of healthful voters in Texans when he eighteen and nationwide. Within the next fall by huge margins you also had a big Asian population. A big African American population Houston Dallas and Washington senator mural big vibrant increasingly dense and diverse cities. But there are a couple of things that give me pause one concern for Democrats is that when Texas a few polls registered voters you'll often see some pretty purple numbers but who actually turns out to vote in Texas traditionally. It's older more white more Republican voters and so if you have a pool of what pollsters call likely voters. You want to take these polls with a Texas sized grain of salt so we Democrats win Texas and when it when he. She worked there's a chance but do I buy that Texas is already a swing state no I'm not rated by yet ask me again in four years. So a Texas sized grid assault our thanks today.
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