'The VP effect is probably real, but it's pretty small': Nate Silver

538's Nate Silver on whether or not he thinks Joe Biden needs to pick a running mate from a swing state.
2:28 | 05/24/20

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Transcript for 'The VP effect is probably real, but it's pretty small': Nate Silver
run for vice president with the nominee. If he asked you to be his running mate, would you say yes? Yes. Obviously, I'd be honored if I were being considered. If asked, I would be honored to serve alongside Joe Biden. Would you say yes? I'd certainly say yes. I have had a conversation with some folks, but it was just an opening conversation. Just some of the many potential vice presidential picks Joe Biden is considering. The list is all female and it includes senators, governors, several women of color and some former rivals, but conventional wisdom dictates the candidate try to select a running mate from a battleground state in hopes of swaying voters there. We asked fivethirtyeight's Nate silver, do you buy that? Joe Biden has a long list of potential running mates, ranging from big names like Elizabeth Warren and kamala Harris to, Grech enwhitmer in Michigan. Amy klobuchar is from Minnesota, so it's more of a purple state than you'd think. Meanwhile, you have states going from red to purple like Georgia. Where Stacey Abrams might be the pick. It's hard to find examples where the vp really move the needle. Paul Ryan didn't help Mitt Romney win in 2012. Tim kaine in 2016. I've done my own research on this, and found the vp effect is pretty real but small. Hey, you might say, voters don't care that much about the vp anyway, but the problem is that the advantage is bigger in the smaller states, say Wyoming, where the voters might have a personal relationship with the candidate. And Sarah Palin from Alaska, six or seven points to John McCain. Meanwhile, Whitmer from Michigan might be worth one or two points to Biden. These aren't ordinary times. Biden is 77 years old and we're in the midst of pandemic. Voters might put more stock in experience. So, no, I don't buy that Biden needs to pick a vp from a swing state. Just pick the best person for the job. Our thanks to Nate.

This transcript has been automatically generated and may not be 100% accurate.

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