Transcript for Biden could soon win Pennsylvania – and presidency | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast
Hello and welcome to the 530 politics podcast I'm Galen route. We are in our third day of election coverage here acts 53 yeah eight. We have not gotten any new projections so far today however. We have I'm more ballot counts come in from places like Nevada Arizona Pennsylvania and Georgia. It looks like Biden is still a had in Nevada and Arizona. And Biden is very much closing in on president trumps lead in Pennsylvania and Georgia. This moment the Georgia race is on a nice edge. In Pennsylvania. They expect full results or full initial results by tomorrow. There is some sense that by the time you're listening to miss the race husband call but we wanted to hop on here in any case just to share some updates before it got to wait so accurate need to do that is editor in chief Nate Silver any. Thank you look back at the ABC's studios ice event really got you working act. House on GMA this morning I was on their. 10 AM show it's a few elected but. It's weird affiliate T percent from that won him like you're promoting him. Yeah and they want to go up early and and in here late right I go take your time like. American needs your analysis made. Not Alter of us is senior politics writer Claire allowed anchor hi Ian. And senior politics order Perry bacon junior Hyperic. All right take us off. The last time the talked while is. Wednesday night and we had sent that Michigan had flipped four. Biden was the projection. Biden was the apparent winner Wisconsin and so those were the changes to sixteen. Double balloting today what what do they told us about the state of the race in the five on projected states. Well the top line is that. We can't see what a top line is because you know. A we don't want to make a mistake be superstitions can see the promise and networks to be violated. We have to dance around the fact that one candidate is much like an amateur win. Most of because a Pennsylvania where. Where one of the two technical support for president before vice president Joseph Biden. Is winning very large majorities. Votes are being counted because their votes were cast by mail and in Pennsylvania and it was a very very democratic vote even in red counties it's often a democratic wrote. And then very very blue and purple blue counties in Pennsylvania. And the map is that there are enough votes outstanding in Pennsylvania that enough so something really don't understand. That Joseph Biden is likely to overtake Donald Trump a Pennsylvania if that were to happen and Joseph Biden would then have 270 plus electoral votes. In states that I think are. Either have been called by other networks are thinkers if the call actually things that both have gotten about it which editors article in Nat. Now Arizona. Nevada because it hasn't called my anyone yet but like that would quit Biden Overton seventy at which is big problem for from. So. Dot seems pretty positive news for bride and in Pennsylvania. In Nevada you said earlier today on our live blog that you know we're not a decision desk here but that if it were up to you you what is called back for I didn't. Do you still feel that right. Obviously I don't think it ordered a little bit meek not tickled about it because like. It's mostly male votes in Clark County. Universal Biden is ahead as a tennis ahead you elected to ask this is best. I am organizes perhaps operate like their principles like is there a plausible. Scenario where the candidate who's behind the catches up to have be likely just plausible right to me it's not plausible that like. Truckers already losing his mail ballots in Clark County man except Ameren clerk Karen there's not enough from the girl's so it seems like Joseph Biden sleeps like it and expand there understand the caution but like you know Jon Ralston says that there's no path then. And then you know I don't think there's. Rent and recent regiment as perhaps a little bit of politics to Oregon here in the sense that Fox News and the AP or be called Arizona for Biden's and if they called Nevada that would invited to 270. And then both the AT and Fox News would basically pre projecting Biden as the next president of the united. And that's a whole other Psycho drama that I think is pretty fascinating I mean there's a lot of reporting going around. About how the president is limited with Rupert Murdoch. Owns Fox News. Obviously the Fox News decision desk is independents and here's. Some pretty apparent. Animosity between some of the hosts of the decision to ask than the opinion hosts in the decision desk. So I'm sure there's a lot of at times tense conversations that network. Today. Larry one thing we've also been watching throughout this election is who would take control of the senate and things have not looked particularly good for Democrats are far we saw. That Susan Collins won in Maine we saw during Ernst won in Iowa. The Republicans won in Kansas and Montana and so far to pick ups for Democrats have to and seemingly Arizona and also Colorado while losing doctor and see it and Alabama. So it looks like 4850. Is is where we are so far and then there's those two senate races and George so what's going on there. So you know the first minority neighborhoods around were Kelly lawfully seize this he made it to Michigan hasn't talked to a world run feel warm talks. They're going to run up on January that's overworked or watching right now though is. David Perdue and running its job Oslo produces a Republican and also the Democrat. It looks like being around Georgia is so close by in and and natural obviously almost tied you know charm of the very very small lead redeem more ballots from the Atlanta area. It looks like Perdue who had been above fifty. Is looks like he is probably likely that it is below 50%. Of the vote right now and that would mean the don't go good or run up to between. Are soft and produce a release right knee out more welcoming its may Purdue gets over repeated it looks like we're hated war. George. Two senate races in January 5 to decide control of the senate in which. Democrats and have to win both of them tall order but. You know Georgia looks like it is like the blue wave as he Georgia Georgia's changing. Demographically and looks like that is a state that the Democrats are competitive and right now Biden very much could we endure. Do you know anything about what the electorate looks like in a runoff environment. So little initial view would be that. Unit unit unit the high propensity voters gonna turn out. This immunity any more during wider electorate. So this and there was a there was a runoff after the 2008. Election the Republicans want pretty easily debt and so my. My assumption but again Georgia is changing politically anyway right diving my assumption that wanted to be careful about I'm assuming too much right now. All right Claire what have you been watching throughout today I don't we've gotten a lot of new results and and and things have changed a lot from where the narrative. Where where things were when the narrative started forming on an item and are part. I'm not even trying to send cute I don't actually remember. What this morning state of play it was it was basically that we are etiquette unfolding vote counts in. G or ebbing in the beginning of the day we thought we're have a Georgia results by way. The end of the day. Bassist in going pretty slow. The 530 it's very excited very 5:15. PM Pennsylvania secretary of state news conference. Witch ad which ended up being hurt. Entirely saying anything I guess understandably she's out there trance aid. Listen public we're counting votes are careful as we can but I think a lot of people liked camping at the bit to see. Pennsylvania. Be called there to get it for idea but counts but it's pretty good for Biden. So this day has been a little bit of like a lull before I think probably be. Waves. Stuff starting meet meet tonight at around. Nine Ers. I'm not getting out ahead of its. As I mean that the recent so hard to game out is because. Biden is like 80000 notes behind trump now and it's possible that credit him like one fell swoop Philadelphia carried. Ire over it achieve that margin writer Kirk regular clothes. So in theory at any moment. A look at I'm making this implicit assumption like. When. Philly. Or when Biden if Biden overtakes her Pennsylvania then you'll then have. Correction of the call which may not be true but like I mean what. If Pennsylvania were. The decisive state. I think it would have been called already. We are packed me. It's pretty obvious is gonna win Pennsylvania. Fox does not call airs on they don't want to call it I wanna call you wanna call it state and election that. When candidate. There's gonna say it's fraudulent or whatever when a ten is still ahead in that State's vote count so I think people are gonna wait until Joseph Biden is ahead. And then sit the obvious that by news come. Riddled. Most likely keep cumulative ballots. Leash eight we should say it means ices you know. Do you have those days listeners really what I do all pain now it's kicking in May developing. Which which was heading to reason why the aperture networks are being so conservative white work you know people are journalists are being so conservative about this is because. The moment. A stake it's called for heightened. Trump has spent the day tweak out stop the votes these. You know there their they're not letting us observed close the ballot counting closely enough this is fraudulent they've been touting these kind of frankly like from what I can tell pretty weak sauce like winds. To get closer to the ballot counting but physically closer to the ballot counting things that are really gonna change anything. But there's been a lot of just kind of PR from the trump its campaign apparatus today. That out. You know allegations of voter fraud there isn't very odd press conference at the trump campaign held him. Nevada for like three minutes where they had a bunch people copped the podium in and identify themselves and they kind of said. Sounds funny and then they left without taking questions so it's just been kind of an odd day but it doesn't take a genius to understand what the president's. Strategy is totally a basin and now it's again. We don't have. Any evidence that an. Treats to those to those claims. As Claire was mentioning president trump has been laying the ground work to make lots of unfounded claims about fraud obviously he's been trying to we have background work for the past several days weeks and even. Months in many ways. Everything that has played our so far over the past three days he has telegraphed well in advance and we were all pretty well prepared for. At Reid may be given that and now that work here. How he is trumps team behaving power Republicans responding Democrats responding. You know how far is he getting rid of these bad faith attempts. Tenet says basically discredit the part. I don't like he's getting very far mean you have things in a margin rate matters are protesters in. Are there were in Michigan there were in America the county right but it doesn't seem like the processor they're counting hasn't interrupted anywhere yet there have been attempts to slows things down a Pennsylvania and it seems like judges period. Are not really having much tolerance for it you know I think. You know one thing it's an interesting about the selection is like if you're a congressional Republican. You probably kind of a K with it she captured. Majority in the senate probably all well those runner ups that Snedeker Richard like you least impair that expectation the senate probably keep a majority you gain seats in the house right. And you're not kind of rid of this truck problem. So if you're in what is now and Donald Trump in this election doesn't seem so bad for the future of the GOP intact. Might argue it's one of the better case scenarios the GOP. You know look at his albatross of trump and yet. Yet a foothold to regain control of congress. In 4022. Most economists kept their seats couple loss partly Sally sorry you lost what's now but you know everyone else kept her seat Circor gardener you but it weren't else. So you've no incentive to like wanted. Cast doubt on election result as you did pretty well in congress. Eric are you processing power this you know. Bad faith attempt to discredit the for more. Is like is designates an important in which is I would I was watching for would be added nine new trump would do this I was curious will Republican other Republicans reinforced and so far. You know trust relatives are few people on Fox News are Newt Gingrich and Fuji Rudy Giuliani are but there elected Republicans are not. Really going there so far. I'm living a singling out as Biden in this. This data being very confident about saying we want and we want and so on which war you know would you think we will remain we will in which you know which scale which is like. Which is at Kennedy reinforces what the media thinks about the raise but also they are saying we want to count every vote. And so long that there they are projecting a level confidence that is I think is this really useful. Watch as well I think you an indication problem where where they view things as being it. Yet you know. Pet vet that whole idea of Republican elected officials kind of be like not sticking their neck out for Trout you lead and saw that. In the very early hours Wednesday when China came out made his first statement and and made his first statement that it is that I won. And then Mike Pence got up and spoke for me thirty seconds but in those thirty seconds at an average exact words but his basket like. We're waiting to see all the votes counted it was something very kind of like normal and you know. What are regular elected official it's kind of a block space filler. And then Mitch McConnell again has sort of been not sounding the choppy train. And you know Donald Trump junior I think was was on TV you're tweeting remember which. This evening early this evening saying. You know all these 22 point four candidates who ECU you know we see you not defending Donald Trout. So it is kind of this this interesting I was talking with Chad Allen who is sort of say my editor. Who is saying I am it's interesting that that. You know in some ways if China does loses. QP voters will have repudiated him but some of these other candidates down Pallet. You know people are okay with salmon are okay with sort of Martina trump as them through different people each time perhaps that went too far with. His co leaders Dotson and that it and that it lets you know different frame of mind. You know in that in the very very big hypothetical and co would never happen. Which trump has. Pattern how to add. It better chance of really making some much much much closer. Election are winning the election that's three started to get get it to the statistics at areas and Ernest and a lot of time. Piecing together what happened here with the presidential run down ballot races but those are like the initials were ops. You know I think we're gonna be out of these restrictions for a long time as we get more data in of course and Ken Keyes got her you know which types of voters decided which parts of the country. For home. I think it looks like so far I mean. Do we do we all agree with kind of needs take away here that the more mainstream or just not trump GOP. It is also a winner in the selection universe or eight may very well end up being that Biden is the top line Renner. We're not saying that yet but that's where the data is pointing at this point. Blight is it is the rest of the GOP also a winner here or is that too. Generous. There not not winners. Aunts who ran some level I mean you know that this question of let's say Biden wins. Any wins by popular vote margin of what meet his sad let me be seven million. But we've got all these kind of Republicans. Taking house seats let's say they hold the senate. And you know they continue to be like the right thing. A relatively threatening party is America getting more liberal is America getting more conservative there's a little bit of like. Who knows kind of kind of thing going on here. Are your original question Galen but I think it's generally. This in this idea is that some. That op who knows I didn't write like we. I think people were prepared for you know Beattie a couple different takeaways from this white. Truck repudiated what it may you know where the average of polls were pointing. If top had won reelection. I think it would have been very much clear that white. No he'd like he understands and has attuned to politics in this country or something that light we didn't necessarily expect even though he probably lost the popular vote and actually anyway but this and I have this outcome is isn't quite confusing want to try to unpack and and of course we don't have all the tedious to right. It's almost. And articulate and as well it's almost like people are potentially sick of trump. But not sick of some of the ideas that he put out there right. Outsider is. Bluntness. And whatever being against political correctness being you know whatever it is meaty there's still a lot of mountain. Attraction in those ideas for. I mean atrocities I like. Biden is seen as more moderate right. Like a rookie with Biden but you know bid Nancy Pelosi and Bernie Sanders an ANC and its democratic congress right and certain. Slit her ticket in that respect but like I think. The conventional wisdom part because some. Congressional Democrats are kind of saying this is old party too far left. Joseph Biden you know defund the police and end green new deal and whatnot right. And Joseph Biden with its audience that because Joseph bide her because she just one truck out of office but but we words. You see a lot of debates and a Democratic Party about it. As part of me too far left and a lot about that in I mean you're gonna see like a lot of at some point. Progressive frustration I think right because he'll have it liberal although diminished probably minority or majority in the house. But can't really get very much through the senate right and well maybe kind of be at loggerheads with. Biden a ballot hey if you can't do anything and it palace. Man in don't create problems for me right so you gonna have a you know an enthusiastic and it's it's kind of the relationship plays out a BX Nancy Pelosi keeps your speakership but it is. Not guaranteed. The likely. I mean and is really interested in the we have I don't remember ever having to run offs in the scenes state. Like we're gonna basically have a two month campaign where I assume even with Soviet every national order will be besieged. The C will be down there. Talk to me in Atlanta I feel bad for the people live in Savannah the number and they're gonna receive per hour is going to be very intense. You also have Kelly lock loses at least a candidate who was sort of picked to be a moderate Republican. Has swung way to the right to we need to win that it did in the primary and to be done Republican. I assume she's innocent of try to move back the middle that might be hard she's running in its Raphael worn out who's this past it was a great personal story was never released. Run for office before some curious how that goes. John Assad of course is that you know did run the didn't win. Like Perdue and law or not I would argue particularly great candidates battled are soft and Warren are not very experienced in this either. And he also doesn't question of the U we have two races do the candidates to run together. Orderly Canada run their own separate strategies to the voters to decide accountable for one Republican and one Democrat to balance it out everything is a lot. A potential using things it and they are we don't put this and get a rooting for this sort of resisting senate race to happen is against. It be pet sitting in a certain way and also the changing way of Georgia words you know I. Obama lost Georgia by 2012 so Georgia's once again has moved a lot political. Yeah and I mean it doesn't look like that will end up happening so maybe also whatever happens in that race will do a lot of and shaping too but anyway it is getting me and dot Claire I think we have. Promise to fail to. Our listener is gala burnt. So the background on this it is. That I think we were. The lead at night on Twitter and I didn't doubt it and I it was we are at a retirement as the eyes and something like my birthday is two days after election now be turning 65. She and Claire's response was are we getting drunk or buried two months and it. I was my response because ultimately that's it would still doing daily podcast by that. We're doing shots on air snarl lines. Claire. Claire. Is mostly for people who are watching undies here but if you're listening to those of us. Likens its gotta eat it and being teachings in. Are credited. I letter. Slipped its. Plum brandy which I highly recommends you can find it in your area it it it drinks clean. Let me read them yeah. I've got some tequila right now I'm actually report as we. As we speak just just to make sure no one is that doubts at all that I've put water in. A cop. Test of faith who I was I was a big four and actually Tony can you join us for a second and of that. Yeah I think jiving you gunshots here. The world who and what do you drinking tank. I have some. Richt black and it's. Burners and it's a today Nate is working and parent I would yeah a young child at sparrow will not experience taught that that's. A little but I didn't know is actually happening where you go get a statement from illness. People who need it to you redneck in Colombia I have a young crowd throughout without him there. It can't involved I didn't. You know none. The most literal well bill no don't do them. Well OK to tell us to Gillen. He owns Terry thirty you guys which I did year actually turned thirty. The day before the day after tribe was inaugurated so I don't feel like 130 earth they overshadowed by political events. Buy it. You've been doing a wonderful job on podcasts your wonderful person. A lively mind and a a good heart so happy birthday gala and we love you. Happy birthday gallant. Like a little. Water it's organic it's and I can't tell us. But this army. Sorry. Now as they're touching. That you support for thing of course Sox aren't happy tears products. I. Actually it was apparent that wasn't in. It wasn't us. It's good tequila I just poured more than I intended. That should suit here is says it now editing this podcast at least one shot him. Well. Yeah I so I got it got that tangling tingling and that was also I think that must be. A 530 politics podcast first we've been during this now for. Five years and for the gunshots on acts are regarding just witnessed history. But anyway thumb and also another perhaps podcast first. Those you'll tune in to YouTube now target to meet each out for the first time an ulcer that you're listening to pot have hurt him. They've heard reports I guess that's. Thirtieth asked countless turning. Rock throughout all of us. But anyway thanks to everyone think you Nate he declared the period and thank you Tony. Are you happy birthday at. And Isaac also say that if we get results in late tonight we'll probably be podcasting about it some more room warnings or during obsessively refresh your fees product no Mexico what's the cut off. But. Well I mean what I did I'd may well be drunk so if were fired live. Like me at the Helm several drinks and we could we crews already seen a lot of secrecy podcast host player. Just let it rip. Tony will speak both knew it happens. Anyway will we prepare my name is jail after turning challenges in the virtual control room. You can get in touch by emailing us at pod cast at 530 dot com you can also of course greeted us with any questions or comments. If you're a fan of the show because of Reading a review in the Apple Store or tell someone about us thanks for listening. Oh. Oh.
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