Transcript for What are the chances we'll know the next president on election night?
In a mile Pennsylvania's tipping point state around 35% of the time. If you had bike with an eight point lead in Pennsylvania OK that we really are kind of getting into territory we're trying to. He is in fairly desperate straits but he still does have a winning app that runs through the keystone state. We have gotten some are calling polls Pennsylvania and they still shell relatively tight race and he didn't show Biden leading but like maybe by 45 point is not entirely comfortable it's just. Barely bigger than that you're there. Between sixteen items margins in states like Wisconsin and Michigan are on the order of deep points that is. Quite a bit larger than the polling error in 2016 so you know if that we're back here again in those states that Biden would still. Win and win by enough that it wouldn't be liking recount territory Pennsylvania dominant big mystery is that Pennsylvania has for most the campaign. In polling tighter than Michigan Wisconsin. And we now the point where it's too late to say just work. Italy is tricky because different counties have different rules for how they'll count ballots some counties will not count of mail ballots going to be probably very democratic until the end ceremony mr. canning him until. Wednesday by the Windstream court. Has also ruled lets me that you can get your gallon in after Election Day so they will be maybe the last of the major states it definitively say would happen. And. You know look I think there's 10% chance account wins if trump wins it probably take awhile to get that out I think actually it probably a 60% chance that. Biden wins and we knew what by a 3 AM and at 30% chance that Biden wins but takes longer to know that it's kind of roughly how I think appellate court. The talking point that almost independently of the Supreme Court I think is closer to (%expletive) in reality right. We model what's the chance within the recount margin is stated we changed Electoral College Texans about. 5%. You know I think if I percent chance of the court getting involved in the country day is a Vieri. Serious chance people have to look at carefully right at the same time 5% is not inevitable and who knows. People of Detroit territory but the court's rulings up to this point in time which suggests they. Conservative court that's not to approach voting rights but as an in with in the word. Traditional court behavior right where they tiebreak word from. They can interpret these uncertain direction but not like Ian vehicle for practice steal an election that he clearly loss. Probably please. It's.
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