Transcript for Confidence Interval: Could Trump win if he replaces Pence? | FiveThirtyEight
Page Everett what are your today where doing confidence interval where we take a look at it take hot take we've been hearing a lot. And then we discuss just how confident are not confident. Okay what that they. The tape we're looking at is can president trop. Win in November if he replaces Mike Pence as his vice presidential. You know we've been hearing a lot of discussion. About. Truck possibly replacing pence it is something hail Mary. Because he's trailing in the polls against former vice president Joseph Biden. And so this is something. Were taken a look at I could see president trump. You know throwing this hail Mary taking you know this huge swing for the fences. Because it's not clear to me that Mike Pence really does offered that much to him. Part of the reason pencils pick back 26 seamless for party unity. But it going mandatory twenty looking ahead to November is there much question that white evangelical voters for instance ants is very popular with. Third they're gonna stick with tropical or atlas of it's it's. And if princes certainly offer that much Indiana's nuts when seen anything. I can see trump trying to pick somebody he thought could could shake things up is there any precedent from earth. The last time this happened actually its way back in 1944. Franklin Roosevelt was running for his fourth term can't be adding. And Henry Wallace is sitting vice president. Was pretty liberal and there were some Democrats were worried about. Him becoming president if it at the art died and so they maneuvered to get Harry Truman selected the national convention instead. And lo behold FDR's a few months into his fourth term in 1945 died and nurture became president. So that was the the last time this came to pass a fact and how confident are you in this. My confidence level the presidential can win here replaces Mike Pence aides may. Vice presidential nominees. Really don't add that much the presidential ticket into the day. It's been looked at over the years he generally speaking the sort of effect. Vice presidential nominee can hands. Eighty get a point or two more. And home state that individuals so. You know maybe 26 team. President trump did better in Indiana because he had Mike Pence and this is ticket but due date president trump won Indiana by a lot. Because he did well there wasn't because might insolent gate in the heat peace in that state is so if you're looking at. The Electoral College map you're looking at the neck at the national polls state level polls. You know it's there's no. Magical individual out there that trump could pick who could overcome. Some of the difficulties the president faces really. The selection is going to be about president trop it's evolved into a referendum election and so. No matter who his number two is it's going to be about him so that's why a man on this take. Even if president trump does replace pence. Out of that there's anyone trump could pick. Who would notably Alter his chances of winning number.
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