Transcript for FiveThirtyEight: Can Bernie Sanders win?
We're back from Iowa where we sampled lot of greasy food some more authentic stuff also some fast food chains that you don't finalized and New York area exciting right but didn't guys come back. With a case of Bernie fever burning and Judy Philip aren't. It Maha I'll move around. Com he's very present I should say in Iowa you see lots of billboard disease bus right yes yes. I think I was actually surprised by howls serious it needs to take and I. Went to a rally of his it was received well attended and when I talked to people especially younger people they were saying a lot of them are saying. You know where more likely to be grace Anders voters in order Democrat is who's who's been in the tank for. Those kind of surprised. That's how. How big the burning moments months. Here if you had stated that. On either Clinton or seniors winning Iowa caucus or caucuses. Cup guy not guy. To a Q would you pick. I think I'd go with 538 polls only or Paul plus forecast both of which favor Hillary Clinton but not by a margin right so it's a close race. Either candidate can win Clinton had led in most of the polls and that state. If you look at that the Moines register poll for instance. She still leads by two and it was really a case of her support falling consistently rising the most recent all. So I think I'd still bet on Clinton but it's clearly a tight race there mechanic wins let's say that Bernie. We're also needs chance in Iowa with that he prevails. In a way giving three or four point. Solid win on what happens next I think it. Sanders were to win and he's given Goldman and trees doing well there in the poll mating. I think any. But maybe if nothing is for sure but he has for the most part whole letter New Hampshire Ilie and they have similar demographics and it's also right next door to his home state of Vermont. So let's say that he Winston entries to for two that. But then the race the contours of the race changed significantly that a South Carolina senator's does not have to mean South Carolina. In the universe where he becomes the nominee barely. South currencies obviously gonna lose like what's the state I think review that you know he would not expect burning to win but we're if you will win it at the state. That would be built whether. I would look probably in the per field south the northern part of the south you know Tennessee West Virginia Kentucky. Oklahoma these are states that Clinton won in 2000 in me they are states to have. Not too large an African American population but there are states where. That a lot of delicate and Sanders is going to be able to have enough delegates to win the nomination he asked to win those types of states so. There too with Sanders to go to expand his coalition of white liberals right wing group that is. African Americans and Hispanics or it can get moderate Democrats are you saying there are some like kind in. Union voters down in West Virginia and even those guys says he's. Socialist. Might be persuaded that Bernie is change in that. Maybe the gun's been quite earn their. No I see burning West Virginia I think while he I think he has and natural. Sort of says he's an action some pot with the union vote just in case packaging. Culturally. He has a favorable ratings we don't really know how that'll translating to. In a West Virginia says I'm a rural. Democrat in the voice of is maybe maybe the guns thing the two issues where hilly we'll try to hidden from the left there. Our guns and immigration maybe there are some minor Democrats time. Are getting too far ahead of ourselves here right. I'm what you loses Iowa is they are really erase. I I don't know what the definition of really a race as he could still win New Hampshire but I think if he loses Iowa then this thing he can't get over that hurdle I was got to be ranked about. He ranked the states from one to fifty W about the fifties you state for him. To instrument victory. But because of an hour.
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