FiveThirtyEight: Is Gordon Hayward worth it?

Neil Paine breaks down the Celtics' decision to sign Gordon Hayward and tries to predict if Hayward's addition will be enough to beat the Cavaliers.
1:49 | 06/13/18

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Transcript for FiveThirtyEight: Is Gordon Hayward worth it?
Former Utah Jazz for Gordon Hayward announced that he was joining the Boston Celtics this week and it's at the media into a frenzy. The question should be at if Haywood actually worth that much attention. According to our Carmelo projection system here by 38. Hayward is what's known as the borderline all star he figures at six point eight wins above replacement next year a total that will fall off each of the next successive seasons. How much is six point eight wins above replacement well that's pretty good it ranks 23 among all NBA players for next season. But it's less than Paul Millsap had and it's around the same as Otto Porter a couple of other free agents that didn't receive anywhere near as much hype is Hayward. Admitting that goes a long way toward explaining why when we plug Boston's depth chart for next season into Carmelo including Hayward. We only get a projected win total of about 45 wins. That's fewer than Boston had last seen. How is that possible well for starters Boston was probably a little lucky last year. They had 53 wins but their point differential suggested they only really should have had about 48 it. And in order to clear the deck to acquire Hayward they had to get rid of Kelly Atlantic and probably also markets march. A couple pretty good defense the players whose combined wins above replacement according to Carmelo next season. It's higher than Hayward but we don't why all of this happened it's not to maximize Boston's regular season wins. It's to help them beat the Cleveland Cavaliers the team that embarrassed them in the playoffs last season. When we do the same exercise in -- Cleveland's depth chart and Carmelo we get a projected when total of 53. That's more than the cavs hadn't last year so it could be that for all the hype and. All the attention paid to Hayward destination the Celtics still will probably fall short of the cats and.

This transcript has been automatically generated and may not be 100% accurate.

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