FiveThirtyEight House forecast update for Sept. 26, 2018

Learn why the FiveThirtyEight forecast for California's 48th Congressional District race is so different from what some experts are predicting.
1:51 | 09/26/18

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Transcript for FiveThirtyEight House forecast update for Sept. 26, 2018
Yeah. The classic version of 530 house forecast. Currently gives Democrats about a four and five or about an 80% chance of winning a majority. And it gives Republicans about a one in. Today let's travel to the west and take a closer look at California. Forty. One of the seven districts and parents. Democratic challenger Harley route is running against Republican incumbent. Dino work in this Republican leaning. On our model currently gives route about a 64%. Chance of unseating Rohrabacher. California 48 is one of those districts where are modeled differs from what acts sang. Mall places like cook political insight elections and avenues crystal ball are old reading this cost. Our model thinks that has a pretty good chance of winning. So why the discrepancy. Well our classic model takes into account fundamentals things like fund raising experience and generic ballot polls among other things. And the fundamentals for California forty. Favored the Democrats. Here's a list of everything that went into calculating the fundamentals and the impact do with specific elements have on the race. As you concede while the incumbency advantage helped war blocker and the GOP. The current generic ballot polls and the fact that were blocker was involved in recent scandal. Help give the chance to adapt. In a district like California forty which has eaten there you blow number of available polls are classic model relies more heavily on the fundamentals. Which would explain what it thinks route has a pretty good shot of flipping the scenes. Visit 530 dot com slash house forecasts to explore the model for years and.

This transcript has been automatically generated and may not be 100% accurate.

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