FiveThirtyEight: The Miami Heat are surprising everybody

Neil Paine and Andrew Flowers discuss the Miami Heat's surprising dominance in the playoffs and look ahead to what that could mean if they progress.
3:26 | 06/18/18

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Transcript for FiveThirtyEight: The Miami Heat are surprising everybody
Neil I'll refiners also about halfway through the first out of the deep well most of what seems have impressed you the most so. Just based on the scores in the way things have played out in the games you might think it would be this San Antonio Spurs and crushing the Memphis Grizzlies by an average of between nine points per game. But Memphis is not really the toughest in competition. And I think you're seeing that in that series so we did some crunching of the numbers and you can see in this chart. We looked at. First of all the actual points per game margin of the teams in fees as the spurs all the way over almost at thirty we also took into account. The expected points per game margin against the competition that they're facing and spurs were expected to kill a grisly right exactly will we use for this something that at 538 we call that you low rating it's a measure of a team's strength at any given moment and that's what drives the empty circles there and you can see. The spurs' way over their expected to win their games so far by more than sixteen points there historically dominant team in the mosque going up against him back to youth had some research showing that Memphis. Was worse than some teams that didn't even get rid of them instead they're below average that you would expect the spurs to you know that destroyed in the series but the heat felt wow that's right yes exactly and so kind of we sorted this by. And if you break things down that way you know the clippers in the thunder have had really impressive performances. But nobody really beats the Miami Heat in the way that they've been really surprisingly dominating against the Charlotte aria I mean Hassan Whiteside has been kind of unstoppable in the paint the world seeing his head and shot shooting the lights had Dwyane Wade is doing his little crafty things. There really impressive yet hope it will carry over though they continue to you know. Beat the hornets that is large margins will help them against them Toronto Raptors who we have as 80% favorites to win against the pacers and potentially face that he. Yet it's interesting that unit you know that momentum is not always something that we as stat heads kind of dirty water treatment sin yet exactly. And when we looked at sort of historical mass Epson and how exceeding expectations in round one. Leads to outcomes in round two there really isn't that much of a relationship between how much you exceed expectations in rounds one and two however. They heat have been exceeding expectations vice so much such a wide margin they're actually starting to verge into the territory where it could matter especially when you take into account the fact that Toronto has looked a little shaky. Kind of have anti momentum going Altidore still left first game and so you see a matchup with the raptors. Against the heat if they can get that momentum again at the dirty word but if they were to carry on as their potential for up. LeBron ball in the Eastern Conference finals that the cab seeing the heat. Yeah that's another kind of interesting application a momentum because it that scenario would require. Yet another upset from Miami you know gets a team that would have home court advantage a good team in Eldorado the -- also you know by winning that they would kind of put more gas volumes of their snowball of momentum rolling down a hill so that's something to keep an eye out for we've got lots more analysis articles and videos. Including NBA playoff prediction. At 530.

This transcript has been automatically generated and may not be 100% accurate.

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