Transcript for FiveThirtyEight Podcast: Views of Black Lives Matter have shifted. What happens next?
You don't hear. Oh my god are you accusing me of Britain McLaren I would now our. While while do you your yourself done here really. Really. Hello and welcome to the 530 politics podcast I'm Galen drew public opinion on the black lives matter movement and racism in America more broadly has moved dramatically over the past three weeks in fact support for black lives matter grew as much in two weeks as it did during the entire past two years. So today we're gonna take stock of the various ways public opinion shifted. And look at how politicians are responding. Also as businesses reopen and protesters continued to gather around the country. We'll ask whether we're seeing a second wave of the corona virus and what the political implications could be. And accurate need to do that our editor in chief gates over inning. Everybody. Around us is senior politics writer Claire Milan neglect. And senior politics writer Perry bacon junior hit Eric. They do. So we are going to get to everything that I just match and bought first by popular demand and ask one of our beeper questions. Which is good use of polling or bad use of Paul. So. Prisoners may have already heard about that's well I'll just run third in case. CNN published a poll last Monday showing former Vice President Biden leading president trump by fourteen percentage points nationally. Trump's reelection campaign then wrote to CNN asking for the network to were trapped and apologize for the poll. They wrote the poll is quote designed to mislead American voters through biased questionnaire and skewed sample. And then on to say quote it's a stunt and a phony poll to cause of voter suppression stifle momentum and enthusiasm for the president. And present a false you'd generally of the actual support across America for. And so as far as accusation of skewing viewers they take issue with the fact that only 25% of the poll's respondents were Republicans. Are. Nate lets our review is there's a good use of polling worried I'd use a polling by the trump reelection camp. Lets it. It's. Both a bad use of polling ended. Bad faith argument and and we kind of debated. How much to engage at this at 538 because like. We generally don't. Believe in. Responding to bow with arguments that operate on the pretense that like it's not apples. But like. People this kind of goes back to an skewing and 2012. When a theory is that okay every party should have a certain. Fix at a party identifications and experts in the electorate. Is Republican experts and independent experts and his Democrat right. There a couple of issues with that. One which is that can change over time feeling frustrated with the Republican response to corona virus for example or the protest and maybe say now I'm actually. An independent so it's one of these are trying to sir people about what they're political identity is that's one issue. Second issues there's a lot of kind of apples to oranges comparisons. Some polls. Will say okay. You have to pick either Democrat Republican or independent some polls will allow you say other some polls last week your living that Danny is by the way. What your registration is we hear a dandy as are two different things right to be registered Republican who identifies a Democrat. Where registered Republican who. And as independent always votes democratic and things like that rights of their different. Apples oranges comparisons that people are making. You know so it's just not really kind of argument that acting. People who know polling that much take. Seriously. Yesterday at fourteen points is a big lead in a fourteen point is a big lead then eagerly than other polls show. We have our polling averages coming out. This week actually spoiler alert. And it shows on average fighting with it a point lead right to Sharon might have fourteen that's a big lead for sure yeah. If so most of as the polls for what you're gonna get some sort out liars and usually there isn't need to like ask for a apology or allied Jesse. Conspiracy. Yes so. Terry and Claire I'm curious what you saw about how the trump re election campaign when. Now that's right is not just use a poll asking for an apology from CNN and for them to like actually were trapped. Kohl are. I mean that's asking for an apology is just. It's just a way to a illicit in in. Futures media appearances or white house press briefing at the idea that CNN has still not apologize it is coal. While our lot we all know this by now that the campaign is using in part. I am voter animus in Republican base towards the media and strategy. Accounting at people angry about. Everything. Angered agree node Bader in elections. Which Peter asked about that so it just it it's a rhetorical. Lloyd. You know Whitney and it assembled the actual. Subs substance and it. Sorry I thought let's say two things I guess the first is this is. I'm a little more concerned about this than is being I think this is like. Normally bad a certain way he soon. Trump the suit under buddhism and use of this is in the Vietnam roots are there negative about him. Thank you he's visually tracked the whole not just criticizes. There's definitely an authoritarian element how he handles these press disputes and I think is problematic and abnormal compared to Jeb Bush or George Bush and Mitt Romney or or John McCain and Barack Obama or Java. The second point is though I do worry you can. Outlined her whole like this there is some social science evidence that people tend tweak those mortgage and read those when. They may get more attention they otherwise and again. I'm looking at our polling average from the hit the polls of Billiton done. Biden plus here and there is a fighter plus fourteen Biden eleven Bynum nine by and thirteen Biden eleven by an eight. See senator so. I do I saw some of the tweets CNN reporter so now indeed we're very publicizing the the fourteen in not saying. This is kind at all Irish and I do worry debt. Every news or releasing hazardous and had to hype their own poll but I don't think it is good for Knisley the audience who is noses and honestly told. Fourteen but I don't think don't do that fourteen. On the good a lot of fourteen last week either and I do worry that we don't do as media. Agrees out of saying this is a poll this is big news this Fuzzy because it shows him down fourteen but we're not. Not really sure that's the most accurate portrayal of the electorate right. Right angle did not a lot of media literate store like writing a round holes which regulate don't write a story based around a single poll. But if you're news organizations putting out the poll you probably a prop from Abbas when he tweet up that hole like the sirens. Adam. Your your point about the deeper issue and at its authoritarian state. I yeah that's right as restock. This stuff about like immediate line like it like you about the actual support behind trauma. A lot of stuff more darkly cleats and the idea. Bet trump you know did nothing to trumpeted the for the 2016 election which are selling out. I'm out the results that the future results of the election right he was based in laying the base. For you know it you're not counting your well there are obscuring. It does. Play into the conspiratorial instincts and a certain number. I mean I'm not sure it's even Smart tactically. You know one thing the term campaign I think committed it could. Job of increase Eckstein is because like the human interest to means for media anyway they actually didn't get in a lot of these disputes. About polling and Sanyo there memos that most campaigns can't seem to resist straight I think the most or makes campaigns actually looked. Good. Often forced the campaign's internal pollsters to take a public stand when they should be giving honest advice to their candidates. It's also not clear like OK if one can has a big lead there are competing theories one theory says accretive MI and effects of their forward. Policy Biden hem of her by the winds just the opposite and says okay well. Makes you complacent and so. The buying voters and turnout I think the empirical evidence on which affect prevails really ambiguous enough effort persuasive in your direction. But it's not very clear that from campaign wouldn't be. Better offsetting the decrease is a huge underdog and we'll show them in. On November 3 ride. That was kind of more grad student Christine and that seemed to work. Fairly well and so I don't know I don't know if it's just like. The declare meteorite like. You can imagine a world. Which Biden wins. And trump is alleging. Fraud or something shenanigans. People say well Biden won any one it was a line with the polls in the polls here. Therefore more robust evidence that kind of this is that people really felt it was nothing untoward went on. So there discredit. The polls to right. How much if it's that. Elaborate I mean I think one of the disincentives for anyone kind of entrance orbit. Is that trump apparently threw lot of reporting. It's very annoyed when you kind of give him. Bad polling results writes a could be people trying to curry favor. With trump right you cricket with trump and you kind of bash. CNN right. You can and are killing two birds with one stone in that way but I think you actually helping trumpet in general effect like. In general I think. Poland for campaign should not have a public profile right should not engage in any type of interpretation. Or spin off to democratic campaigns at street and also write. Both have in particular kind of spinning to the candidate and to the public. And like I can get you down Eddie's that I think are often. That very constructive if you actually want. Donald Trump be reelected. So I think we can say that this is a bad use of polling and perhaps not a good faith argument and you know give those stamps. For polls I guess sometimes you can have. A good state argument does not use polling analysis particularly. So let's move on and talk about recent shifts in public opinion. On racism I mentioned at the top of the show that support for black lives matter had increased in two weeks. The past few weeks the same amount increased in the previous two years so beyond that PH after a whole bunch of other. Polling that's going on that's illuminating how Americans are thinking about this so Perry how would you describe. Americans view currently we have the reckoning with police violence and -- and how big of a shift. So I think there's a big shift going on with everyone in terms of how they view the police. And how police treat black people specifically so. Most people of all parties think that would happen is George Floyd was terrible and they disagree with anyone the officers fired. And beyond that which are seen in the polls is. A plurality not a majority of Republicans and a lot of polls are saying look there's a broader problem with how the police. Conduct themselves regarding black people and maybe there that there is some kind of racial discriminatory issue in terms of policing so you're seeing deaths among Republicans and in the Hmong and then those views are RD shared by most. Most black people in than those numbers have gotten from like eighty to like ninety's. They were already shared by most Democrats those numbers are getting getting very high and pretty close so so. All Democrats meeting like white Latino Democrats down Kris agreement black Democrats and hope those people see that an overwhelming evidence the police bias against black people now so that's a police and you saw the universal changes. Now in terms when you ask other kinds of questions. Did you get more division when you ask our questions about how much racism there isn't America kind of more broadly. You find hopeful he that is a big partisan gap would be where Republicans. Generally say that there's not nearly as much discrimination other sectors of light outside a policing wall of Democrats say there is a lot. And the democratic numbers are pretty unified but cross races and the Republican numbers are pretty unified. As well in that they are certainly see less termination broadly. And the third they have seen you get to question the plot questioning get to later but there's a lot of division among questions we get to like. Taking not a better monuments are you get to. Defund the police so that we get the Pacific civic policies. Did I think that you know if you're the unity breaks down even among Democrats on some while. Yet I mean when we look at polling on all kinds of cultural issues more broadly. Knee and Claire. Howell notable is the shift. For support with black eyes matter and just people saying that there is racism and how the please conduct themselves towards people. I mean it's a pretty notable shift. It's pretty usual. To have. Publicly in change and in dime that much. There are some comparisons to you. Two views on gun violence. After Parkland for example. So if you're an American. That thinks a shift is welcome than ever be cautionary tale. That something happens people kind of com are persuaded that thing kind of things fade after. A couple of months. I think one thing that Perry citi's action maybe. Important though which is like. In some ways it's easier for underlying opinion to shift. If there's not liken it necessarily like a particular. Policy proposal on the table. Although there is talk about defending the police and there's talk about what definitely sexually means. But the fact that like people can probably agree with the sentiment that ahem. You know black lives matter. Is something they understand. Now what that means and they understand. How they can be. The cowering in India they support right and they understand that. You know that there are huge problems. In policing word minority communities and maybe policing in general. The ship is also in addition to being. Fairly. Sweeping is also fairly broad based right you really kind of see this among there's a shift among almost every. Ethnic group in almost every party so no this is nots is not. Normal of course it's not normal times you know we've had a very strange few months is a country in May be that kind of maybe makes people more willing to like reset their. Priors and bitten reexamine things. Policy and add for context he was like. Trump is not very popular. And so taking a stance. Against racism and a lot of Americans see president trump as being racist. If you ask them so taking a stand it's racism canal spew way to kind of say you know it. President trump or at least certain parts of president trump are things that I denounced him mind. Yet the whole anti that. Perry armed talk that this was reading treatment numbered but the idea of deep funding the police and more specific policy against that three release or to get into people kind of an. I mean I'm sort of thinking. Defund the police and the new abolish ace. Which is that it's rhetorically too strong for a lot of Americans but it's. It's the product. Activists who were at a try to hit police say like it's is this is like our policy platform in one race. A year you're gonna see a lot of politicians who you know a lot of their job is to kind of complicated those things and to meet. Proposals more palatable to more people sit inevitably water things. I think. The but it turning tide against. Police broadly it's sort of venture sting and you know we talked about this a little with Sam my next two weeks ago when we were looking at. Citizens' deaths at the end of and the police in America and it was interesting to do it for her from the DA to note that. Citizens' deaths in the hands of police and being purposely beckoning complex but like shootings but also. Like Freddie great right in the man I read an. Doesn't gone down in big cities have gone up in. Suburban and rural areas. And they've got they've gone up for you know white people in those areas too so there is broad acting Americans. Displeasure with the police. Oddly Cedar Key huge racial element stalinists but I think a lot of Americans just don't like cops. I think he's like no other way to put it it's sad that so. But not recognize they need. For a lot of people in the country to feel like there's someone. Policing societies so it's we get into its and it really sticky like. Maybe not sticky used tapped conversations and that like whoa what do you mean we should do with heard on the police and be specific about what actually talk. Yeah Terry what does the polling look like when we get sued the specifics. So we look at some numbers it was a great. List of questions of its policing idea is done by Huffington Post lip Mario. And resilience I think they did some F three questions so. Do you supporter. Dee phoning the police 27% support. Fifty's Emerson oppose. So that's not popular. Banning police officers amusing Cho calls 70% opposed to a simple senator present support. A federal ministry for complaints against police offices 70% opposed series U percent support. Developing a national standard when officers can use force sixty members who support 90% opposed. Limiting the transfer of military equipment to police department's 46 support 36 opposed. And then budgeting less money for your local police department. And more for social services for instance funding social workers and mental health professionals. Yeah 44 plus 44 support 41 opposed and it's kind of narrow issue. But the conversation then. I'd like. But seasoning which is fine but at night. I wish the conversation or more new ones because they if we're if we're just gonna have a national debate should be fun police. And sometimes of the conversation just wanna make you Ehrlich. Scream because it's an order we're talking about semantics and not actual things which has carried off. American. Explicit and I'll. I mean yeah don't. Harrell. Centered of the discussions on I don't know I mean we're on our own. Bubbles like yes write to me if feels like. There are people saying before the police and you very different things by an image from campaign is pushing this. I don't know that the average. American necessarily sees the protesters. Backing their goal with it. People by and large seem pretty sympathetic with the protests. And so I'm not sure if that narrative is. Britain through or not. Yeah that I mean it is kind of seems like. Obamacare almost where you pull specific provisions and you find support by the branding has just. Or just doesn't get support. What do we know about how doses. Issues breakdown like is deep on the police and off. Loved. Kind of agitating. Idea that trump can use it to his advantage. Or are people more focused on all of the things that Perry mentioned that the majority of Americans support. And is working audiences ideas but worth noting. Joseph Biden and Nancy Pelosi you're not talking about defining to believe Larry Democrats and AM with the activists say are entirely different conversations right now. Played as a democratic bill that the writing in congress. And that bill is about banning cell calls and adding registries and it's full of it has like five of these things I listed were two thirds of people support so. Joseph Biden was asked but he said deepened at least he said no immediately so I do you think that that's a difference of a trump campaigns. Sales will be up sub level two graft on to Joseph Biden views. He actually does not holes. He might do that but I think it is because of its housing bank I do think in note in the cities and the states were like in a most policing is written in the city at the city level not the state or federal level. I do think you're seeing some amount of like. If not quite. There have been some cities that have already said we're not going to increase funding. We're gonna change our funding formula. We're gonna get police I was an out of our schools so that's going to be deep funding of sorts are actually helping the funding you know I hate that I'm wearied of the Overton window concept and I think it can be overdone and silly at times that I do think in this particular instance that. The debate about what is policing supposed to be like an American I do you think dead people's views are evolving on some of those the questions. Yet what I presidency is the charm campaign is Joseph Biden is gonna come out it's about the stuck on the Eldon L something. Probably along the lines we need reading a national ban on so called we need a national ban on. You know one other policy and it'll become part of his stump and use it I'd probably as a way to say. Wow I thought I was urged a white person who's Kersey a report I did anything. And it allows IQ. PE part of the mainstream American public opinion also. It from a mock you on point of view it allowed by have a little bit of a news. Image which is based in like hey this guy was the architect and the crime bill which put a lot of black men in prison so it does also offer high and Grassley a political redemption story if you if he swings it from. At least to a conversation around the police and America are out of control Joseph Biden. Better reason that sound reasonable to the moderates. Who. Are ailing I try. Suu Kyi him so using he himself. Is trying to identify as one of those white voters who over the past three weeks has said. Like I'm starting to realize or like has changed their opinion and started to say that racism is more prevalent in American art previously realized. I mean they Pickering at its. It actually not basically only regional quote from Joseph Biden in the Politico story. I thought we had made enormous progress we finally elected an African American president he told voters in a live stream young Americans town hall last week. I thought you could defeat hate you can kill hate but the point is you can't and then. Days earlier Biden say he thinks others are experiencing a similar awakening to their own willful naivete. Ordinary folks who don't they give themselves having a prejudiced bone in their body don't think of themselves as races have kind of had their mask. Pulled off guys like this is the guy who. A couple of weeks ago got in trouble Charlene Scott because he was light. You lane black if you're not voting for me over try I mean. Almost digs. It's almost as if from the habit. He was given this gift of light you can kind of get a Mulligan. On were real meat. Count on the line it's like. Racial talk about race that really clumsy a lot of younger voters strictly a black voters and you can kind of saying like. Yeah I'm part of the you know. The continued of white people that is a weekend and I didn't know I was like completely in the dark about all that stuff. I think it candidates. It's. Again it's is crack at it like a pretty in saving grace are right way. And I and it and it happened really quickly. You haven't really awkward. Yearlong struggle. With certain voters in the Democratic Party to prove to them that he is like the right person president's time when a lot of Americans are. Kind of a week until that briefs ism that is it in the political system gorilla and get trapped how to make sub acts tax any. Trump's first rallies in Tulsa. On June 18 which is the site you know this. Independents. Chilling note. Eat all right let's say it is wrong. They postponed it by a dangerous place Jackson originally it was scheduled birds into via. I mean sorry that this does decide art I put this hour slack you know. I gaps when I saw an aptly. Pretty strong symbol. Europe yeah I know I'm in the question of whether trumpeted. The question like whether. A Republican president could exploit this in the Christian whether trump will successfully exploited this are two different questions that trumps. Has very little credibility. Around issues. Related to race relations it's like the worst issue. Yes had a strong handle this issue it is worse issue and has been even before George Floyd. His obviously political strategy is often Gary. Very clumsy and indifference like Biden thinking kind of almost a lot of players is older averages kind of guy who there can be little clumsy around things right. And isn't perfect replica correct like as good heart of the blow you know I think people like I think you can kind of pull that off whereas like trumpet just don't really. Trust company she's related to race for her I think that's a pretty valid reasons and it's like it's like. It's very hard for him today having the strategy apart from like just hoping that others she's become order. Maurer. Salient than he might even preferred. Kobe do this at a government neglect Covington did actually nicer about that the combination of cove it. And a discussion about race in America. Around police violence. And largely peaceful protest at this point is like kind of the worst post combination of issues for for trump. Yes I mean as Trump's has said that for example he doesn't want the names. Military bases changed from. Honoring you know confederate generals at Sutter. Even though the military seemed open to it we've also. Seen from. Is the Republican Party writ large more in line width trumps division don't take down statues don't renamed things. And I don't know what Mitch McConnell position on those things as the lake or is it more of like others is a moment that we should rethink some of these things are. Cell. You know there's a Republican effort in in the congress right now to. To figure out to find some kind of build it they can write this kind of a police and reform deal it would I think it is. They are excessively banning cell calls differences themselves Tim Scott as heavily involved. In reading the deal so I do think Republicans are fully aware there's a new discussion happening. Here in Kentucky took it Republican supported an effort that happened over the weekend to remove the Jefferson Davis statue from the state capital. And in Kentucky so I think there are there Republicans also see this is a moment. There is a vote on Capitol Hill to. Change the names of some can of some bases that have the names of confederate generals on the right now. His or some Republicans voted for that slight do you think it's a space and also trump himself has said would act with George Floyd itself was terrible so why do you think this is now honestly it totally partisan issue. I think Republicans are trying to find. New footing here trying to signal they don't like what up with the with some of the police either they're open to changes on somebody's race was as well so I do think they're trying to find their footing and at some ways. The Republicans on the hill are doing a better job I think the truck. We but I mean. Trump said yes what happened to George Floyd was patterned his family shared seek justice etc. but on. Lots of other things you Maurer pushed back against some of the things that Republicans have been fine where. White you know maybe changing the names of military resistance only. Is this. You know I asked as a lot meters is a dumb question at this point is there a strategy behind this or is this just like a closely held belief. He's responsive to certain. I think he's more responsive to certain elements of what he thinks of bats his base. Human garbage truck rally new go to rallies and they're dug a contingent of police officers like a pretty strong say the military trump does see his base as kind and a lot speakers write a law as he had a law and order candidate used used for people who keep our society in order literally. That can fatter it. Statues is let me a treaty. Like I don't think China has this bird deep understanding of their roots of the southern strategy. But I think he has picked up on the conventional wisdom of the Republican Party you got it that sort of says. There's. Ace in the south. You should keep pac ads Okie knows that for a lot of those people. Ayers their strong feelings about. Confederate history. And he didn't actually has reaction to the and each picked up a lot of conventional with the party at the ultimate new tech it. Without eating all that out. Potential electorally vacation in 20/20. IE at a time win a lot of Americans seem to have a problem wit. It's overt racism and racism at certain elements of society he. Airport is alienating. Shortly perhaps work people that he is. Exciting. I think the more that this gets into issues that are kind of on them. Periphery of the story and not about. Police violence and racism in the protest in them are elected is that. People who are not extreme partisans will tune out and they're free of the can were typical partisan response right like. You know confederate statues. Seen in us. Like something which. Probably the average person. Cassava George Foot video witnessing protests won't have a strong opinion about as the police violence themselves right. Or itself so. You know I mean that's one way that kind of stories eventually work their way out of the news cycle is eventually. People have expressed their opinions or talked about things and reporters have covered stories from different angles and it kind of spins off into. Next day controversies and next next day controversies and in this kind of become less impact poll. To back out there actually neat looking at the half post's polling where aerial leave he has heard mentioned earlier they asked. About opposition to removing. Confederate statue years. And in 201749%. Of people were opposed and in June 20/20 49% of people were selected actually nothing has changed on the issue of removing confederate starches. Even as we've seen some of these dates chefs. Elsewhere and when it comes to the confederate flag. 201747%. Disapproved. In June 20/20 51% to pursue only even for points of its shift. On the confederate flat. I doesn't want to can't wrap things up here we've been talking about. This maybe. In general but to ask directly like how do all of these changes in opinion. A fact that 20/20 general election like does this wealthy like. And you mention maybe that's possible earlier date. Do these changes. Are apt to mean by November. Or is this like a real reckoning moment that's durable for four months. Com. I I don't know I mean it that Pryor is coming that there is some degree of meaner version. If you do look at something like. When violence there is also kind of OK here is I think actually Franken like. Your Pryor's arm burden right you know one story tell myself. About gay marriage for example say actually this is a case weird. The kind of busy right side of the argument. And so over time we need an obligation it I get married. I think that disclosed slip opinion I think gay people should be allowed to get. Mary. Should be ours and not let our from a jobs for being and yes I think that I also think that. Police have checked enormous problems with racism right I think it's good that like. You know that we're shining or Google and on that to and it all out hit off their right like the idea if Iraqis some debates were like. Just kind of one site actually kind of has. Is more morally persuasive not to every last person not that things get complicated right alike. The you know. I don't know I mean this it's really can wed say it was gun violence that category two out and out to me. To me it's a little bit more. Complicated and usually issues that are cleanly and and openly about kind of like discrimination right also affect him like look. I am person is like very aware of like kind in. Cherry picking evidence we could have Twitter threads with like 200 or 300 examples. Of police. Attacking people brutally just during these protests and a pocket about a often like people to write like that's not certain. 200 is isolate incidents anymore you know what I mean. And it's time kind of the world's eyes are on them I mean I think social media is important in kind of on American people the some of this stuff so I and I think they'll be in the I think their various ways in which accumulate the a broader. Cultural or political would be more than cultural backlash Democrats trying to center. Racism in the conversation I get the stuff about like George Floyd and police in particular. Is something that might. That might stack. Yeah. Clarence very were to take your. So I had 3 thoughts. I am talking in terms of The Who is going to win the election question. I tend to think in the revert to the mean that the one thing that did happen in this month in this period was you had more that you that the Jim Madison's. The lead to Murkowski is the bushes the Romney's. You had more of these were like trump handled this so Corley. And what happened was so important that you have more of these this is the moment. I theological were looking for a place to say I don't wanna see his second term for trump. And this was the place for them and I do you think there might have some marginal impact electorally. Like if you if you lose enough people in the Atlanta suburbs of the Dallas suburbs Lisa suburbs that is our of them we know what our suburbs that is a problem slipped one place right they Biden might. If trumped its 86 and the Republican voters and a 90% debt electorally maps. So that's a pursing the second thing is. I'm in terms of how the democrats' campaign. It is likely we're gonna have Joseph Biden talk more about police police brutality. Racial inequality issues like that than before and I would argue that how blood harris' chances of being vice president probably gone up. Any Nicholas arsonists have probably gone damn answer that itself is as an important effect of what's happened last month and maybe I'm wrong about that but I. Think it at this moment right now to look hard to do Amy Klobuchar a little easier to pick some of these black. Yeah. One last night and carried out. That very well like what taxes will be but to go to like electoral ramifications. I do you think this. It's election will be a lot about race. And about crisis. And an act it is perceived. And broadly specifically in the crisis as being racist. Is an electoral problems and me you know. Reagan went to pains to like appear before the NAACP. So that he wouldn't seem racist to like white suburban independent voters. Doesn't do that kind of stopped. He's he's not going out of his weight sort of provide white voters. Who might be on the line about him public cupboard like Steve moderates. Really do that plays into it. Which I think could be bad elect apparently you know at it makes people like extra I really want broker rates that's. And so at my at my last thought about like what it's like you to the twenty. Doubt nervous interesting to think about like. Kind of talking about racism and opposing racism isn't just about like getting the black vote for historically Republican candidates it's also about. Super reports having a good point. All right let's wrap things up quite looking at the leaders trends in corona virus deed so. Look at the past couple weeks we see that in states like Arizona Utah Texas and Florida there's been an increase in infections. And there's been some debate about whether we're seeing a second raid and donate that you have thoughts about this so. Are we experiencing a second wave that corona virus and. No were in the first wave is the short answer. Aaron soul look. A couple of things are important. That place is where cases are increasing tend to be places where they actually were not hit that hard. Initially. Despite a lot of focus fine. On the south in particular from commentators the south to not have very high overall rates of infection back in. March and April to two north east and some parts of the midwest. Soap you nesting way news. In the south. In the southwest on the West Coast. Even in some states that are very isolated rural that. That we're kind of avoided it the first time around and there are a couple of reasons why that might be the case right number one is that if you don't know people in your community who are getting sick and and you McGillis cautious about individuals. And governments may be less crosses right. Number two is there are some factors related fact that in New York where it mastered when he fiber something percent of population. RD had. Corona virus according to various serology testing various Siskel estimates. Actually makes a fair amount of difference. It's not enough to prevent spreading its own agreements estimates but like. But. If one every four people were passed a team are at least for the time being structure along this last immune. I can damp and spread fear bits of your place where Condit when perceptible. Then in the disease cancer to spread more fast like it did in March and some places. So now it's kind of these posts are experiencing. A first wave. You're experiencing a first women are still cresting or maybe was at a plateau and is now austerity tip back up. A little bit again. You're not seeing the huge dairy rapid. Growth you had New York or something or case were doubling every couple of days it's more gradual but like. But elect the key very Lusaka before his cult are to be caught are not there are effective RT. You know there are doesn't matter ramshackle art. If that is above one that means cases are growing right. In New York City are was by various it's over from like. Two and a half maybe up to three and half for four at the peak extraordinary fast right. In Arizona right now like he one point twos so it's like it's not growing nearly as fast as did New York the promise that. It will likely mean to like you're increasing by 20% roughly every five days you critically percent every five days and you most when they over a few weeks right. You have conditions suit control the spread and it becomes a problem after after a few weeks. And so. So yes it's not it's not at. It's bad news it's not a second wave and I think people who called second waiver kind of not actually looking at that it. Data for like ten of what's actually happening in these places and where it's happening. Does this mean I think this is light while this is an epidemiological questions that we've. Might try to answer is also a political arts. I mean I think. Earlier on in this pandemic Erica. Pretty clear partisan divide Democrats were more adamant about reducing risk Republicans were less adamant. But you know now you see like thousands of largely left leaning protesters gathering in large groups was liberal cities starting to open up in people out in the street in crowds and our masks on drinking. And so like. You know where if this was happening in like Texas and Florida and Utah at the work kind of these big liberal cities with crowds and that you might see Democrats kind of arguing that this is on sickness is dangerous you need to shut down etc. but where are the dividing lines now. Now what what are the political arguments that get need orders are just ignore us. So part of the issue from might when he uses looking at the numbers going up in some of these places is that. We sort of we we sort of know we're not gonna have shut down again like to shut downs we he had which I think in some places probably worked to reduce to sprint I think the political consensus that is over an outside hoping we can have does. The Ken of most dramatic action is no longer in the policy menu I think this for a variety of reasons and I think that's bipartisan on some level. So in that sense I'm worried about the spread because of that reason alone. And also the partisan elements are like. On some level it Ron this you know we can pick work I think the religious police will use Republican governors and we get Doug DC Ron Desantis Bryant him. And Donald Trump to stand up in like Wear masks all the time and do a mask are good press conference that would be useful. Even if they did not necessarily sept business is down again I don't think they're gonna do that either. And that's kind of where say the worry is that I wonder what Tenet public and we're gonna had we're having more spread. I wonder what our public policy options realistically are to stop it that we can all agree upon. That can work that are realistic and I'm wondering if that list of options. In April inmate was very short ones are high and now is furlough. Yes I mean because our public health expert they're basically warning against it happens and every single hair news story which is. Fatigue and so it becomes you know you look at the normalization of 802000. Gaps that day. In America from the easy it. I think ultimately that speak. An economic congress ancient. And towards the end of the summer beginning of the call which is basically like. Am you know you're can exceed. People predicting a huge addiction crisis. We're in a recession. Bears. I beat you know it is an interesting thing where the protests. Have provided bills this kind of Sheen and acceptability for liberals to go out and beat. In the world and kind of almost assuage their guilt at being. Could be in the main street looked like corona virus quarantined Petit. I think everyone in the country feels that. But I think the public at public health conversation. Sided thing. Disparities in death at what communities are hit hardest lack Tina community. That's lost talent meet. Political point of view at the com. Distant economic. Recovery story which I is disturbing. I think what's winning its liking it's like there's a little bit of are a lot of elective kind of consensus over like way. Even people exposed to do right. Back in March there was consensus of kind of health policy experts alike. We have to shut down for appeared time wealth kind of figure out what comes next right in like and now it's just like I don't think there's like any kind of coherent. Strategy from. Anybody. Frankly. I think one of things that kind of doesn't get express enough is out like. Sure you can keep doing a lockdown. But when you lift the lockdown. Then. Maybe have cases go up maybe not even enough conditions and plays like I wish they were kind of more people who are like. Aggressive. Mask. For a news right in like. Girls writer like you know it we can go party with our masks on an enemy that affect the life I mean a certain terms of this today like and it really reinforced if you like. Actually it seems like him. I don't wanna get too much into data over the practice probably too easy to see some good protests in the data like the like you know. But what actually if we're doing things with masks on that we can get kind of back to more of a state of normal and so I kind of really wish that like people who are pro ending lock downs were also very kind of locally. Pro mask. But are not likely ask for mask is that what you're talking about when you think mask browns. Now they're like yeah now let's go party with masks on. It's a tolerant it to it the thing that's not. It's a risk tolerance that based on almost like people own personalities not a political persuasion. The limelight have a different tolerance or risk from Gary art or eland. And airport feel differently about reopening. And there's kind of weird retrofitting like our youth for or against such a policy. Based on political party which he seems wholly inadequate because it really about like. Personal fear. Brinkley at at which I think leg manifest itself differently in different people regardless VO. Yeah I think I think it's. About kind of revealed preference for Switzerland may not sensibly say in. In a poll ray I think that motivates people at your sink players like. People will stay home. To the extent. That they feel they're taking a personal risk that outweighs the benefit of whatever activity were to engage him right. People will not for very long. Stay home as a result of altruism. Meaning electing go out and unhealthy don't get sick but if they do you reckon increase for my community. I think the face people stay home because of altruism. Is probably over and I think that is in part because it's not a very united country. Right now. And you can kind of and now both. Side stories that phrase. Do you have enough examples they can kind of blame and point where hypocrisy in saying no it's it's your fault right and so but that none of that is good for people behaving. Altruistic Lee. And kind of when you start to Nikita risk assessment the people begin to say okay. I'm weighing my risk right. There is there when an X thousand chance at a again on a plane and corona virus but nothing about happiness spread to the people on that plane and whatever else people Thailand. Bellic I think the altruism is kind of is over and that's kind of what. Makes the discourse kind of even more like raw than it was before. So it is twenties and agri loan program needs that. One thing you know super I think excuse exists in a poll about this. 2% of Americans went to these protests according Dexia was Poland's that means that most people who won't go to Hillary Clinton did not go in fact as you can the vast majority. But I talked to people who Rell last week who said. I agree to protest. Of course I'm not going to protest I'm 65 years all of the idea regular protests of the insanity so I don't think this is total so I think actually I feel more heartened about what I and there with a cases are going out but I do see. The pitchers I think the protests are a lot of people wearing masks on or not going to protest a little rip the restaurant and some global how are all expanding their outdoor space was tells the people have gotten that message to these yeah outdoors so I do think. If LeBron James Donald Trump. Conservative actor Y country music continues persons he also did. We should Wear a mask whenever you can eat outside whenever you can and two other things. We're not gonna closer writing business anymore but I do think there are four things adoptees attitude we give up that probably 45 things that we should try to figure out some consensus around. They're not that hard they're not gonna closer anybody's business. And that maybe we should say you know those three airport they do not just go Willy like wearing a mask is not Kandahar. Close your business is hard and so I don't I do think I'm hoping for more consensus around sort of a little less controversial things. I'm looking forward to that LeBron game Toby Keith yesterday obvious threats yes but it could. Yet it's interesting that. Even though it seems like of partisan positions on this have broken down a bit now that as you mentioned me like. Both sides are clear examples of people not socially distancing whether its progress or honestly you'd our. If you saw the video of saint marks place on Friday Collins. Young people out in the street drinking with no masks on. You know it seems like the partisanship has broken down but still when you look at polls people are answering. As if this is partisan position so are they just like saying that because. Those were the indicators that they got from a lead early on are sticking with them regardless of their personal behavior relate. What's going on here. I don't see I mean it is what's he asked the night do you think the evidence is in the polls and I've seen still suggest people are not behaving like it separated right there is some. Police and I think conservatives. They're not they're not as pearl mask is Democrats are but there are many conservatives who originally opened the idea of wearing a mask not congregating. Like all the series with this like I think and also where Charleston had this rally. I assume most people who voted from being a little bit silly here but. Most people who voted for trump are probably not going to be at that rally in my guess is some of them will not either who wanted to be there because. Other crow iris I'm not. I don't sort of pull it he asked the question excellence that we overdo the partisan divide on questioned why. Will you go to a large concert voluntarily tomorrow. Is acting not that did this of any season that most people are still saying no and that's across party lines as far as I can tell maybe I'm wrong but I think there is still some agreement here. Yeah I know looking and you know one of the problems with kind of sharing these photos of people party on saint marks place apart from. Apart from. When they're seen as an effective strategy I think probably Wright is like it nit is an asset representative right. In lot of people are her. Staying home are being careful you little pockets but things that are occurring I mean even like. Even in like a 151000 person in. Protests. In Brooklyn I was gonna going through my head this morning trying to make assumptions about like. How many new cases would that cause given various assumptions. I'm not happy now to some marketing humor speculation. It's not all that many though relative to a country. 330 maim people forest city. Eight point three million people in York city. And so you know it's a kind of every day. Behavior that people engage in that probably is a lot more important than highly visible things some casino in Las Vegas or some protests. Where some party in the Ozarks or in Manhattan or whatever else and like. And I don't know me into Clinton's like people are petite and kind of letting their. Their guard down. Affair at the same time I'd like. And with kind of a note of very very very darted if it optimism right which is like the goalposts are. Shifting a little bit. Where was on May first early maybe near camp in a published a story saying we are worried that like. By. Buying the end of may. 200000 people ID will be diagnosed trying to virus and because people a table died. Those were not consensus predictions they were kind of this obviously and obviously but some previously claimed White House projections it's not clear can actually. Believed at least in the White House. But now we're talking about like. You know over the past week around seven of people died. Per day now at 3000. Onward to be when the casing on up or down now like we're not a 200000 keys with you at 23000 a day insular has been some. Gulp of shifting on. You know I do you think in terms of an issue mission in networking I think like for some reason like. In time you say are actually kind of this city's doing something smarter in the states has contact tracing now right and hate case when going down in the state for for two weeks five weeks and are all right there's no kind of celebration of these kind of small successes and so kind of an alien yeah I mean the difference another researcher says like. When people are fatalistic about current virus does it feel like it's I think it fixed than they actually. Do less distancing you know and I mean they're like well screw it. I'm not gonna distance for eighteen months Triton also is like disconnect as you purely sings about spiked from and we them but the suspects coming in areas where. I'm actually returned to practice at their increasing you know kind of knew people who have a and then. I don't know just you don't want to encourage people to public and of the world part. Right yet. Zone I think this has been. Definitely increasing conversation and as. We. Hours as per usual just Seaway ends up happening as these haters continue and as we continued tracking a chorus yeah. I think that's it for now almost anybody has anything else that one and on. And I all the unit Nyhan of the world party. Where would you serve when at least there. It is funny I was in college I. For your senior year I was keepers drinking column. And when they had that you have a land. You're a little large patent Iran particle collider in. Switzerland. This is this I was obsessed with the story that they were switched. It was like at extremely slim possibility. That a black hole would form and world would. And that was like. Even by drinking column that we. As I went all or part bartenders. Make me to drink. Your answer written for the world so the brewing now it would just die in an instant. Well we know you were mostly. Wait that guy got excellent and I'd like. It shattering. Perry what's your and it the world. That's. I am I like all lessens others have been of the into the world through executive to give anything else honestly. Name. Something much stronger than alcoholic and with the a clip and department of that it made you really fortunate to Slaton. Apple model ever like I don't know like the world that. Hard liquor YEI. There are definitely people in the world with cabinet yes I think he's direct. Assault on a shirt and but. Yeah. All right well let's leave partner thank you may. I think you really may declare. And thank you Eric thanks deal. My name is Gayle entry Tony chow is in the virtual control room union touched by emailing us at podcast 53 com. Annals of course greeted us or any questions or comments. If you're a fan of the show beavis or rating or reviewed Apple's hot App Store or tells them and about us. Thanks for listening and it's. I.
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