Transcript for FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: Biden Is Currently Competitive In Georgia And Texas
Swap but it's not fun he don't want to sit outside. And you know at Applebee's its not a pleasant experience. Hello and welcome to the 530 politics podcast I'm deal and to report. A slew of high quality polling released last week shows an increasingly dire picture for president. We knew already that Biden had a large lead nationally. But polls of individual battleground states are now shelling Biden up by a healthy margin. In every swing state and essentially tied in Georgia and Texas. So what's gone wrong for trump. And how might you right the ship. Is this a low water mark for him or is the bottom really falling out here. Also the cold at nineteen operates across the south and southwest have continued to worsen. With Florida and Texas becoming the first states to reimpose restrictions state and drinking indoors in bars. So why are these are efforts happening now at how our politicians responding well get to all of that and you're need to discuss our editor in chief gates over Haney. Hang game and asparagus is senior politics senator Carl Malone declared. Again. And senior politics writer Perry bacon junior a pair. It is a you know. So let's begin at where these recent corporate outbreaks according chewed the New York Times the number of new corona virus cases is up 76%. In the US over the past two weeks. There are reports of strained hospital capacity or the potential for a strain on resources across a number of states in this house. So neat I just want to start by asking. In comparison to what we were all experiencing in the north east. EA in March and April how bad are these outbreaks in the south hasn't gotten to the point where we were here in New York yet. They're pretty bad but there are three important differences. Number one is that we have much more testing capacity right now. Then we had back in March. It seems like in a lot of these states don't have enough on testing to handle the overflow capacity. It still might be the case that. That you know you doing somewhere on the order of five times many tests and you were back in kind of late march early April. Makes a difference. Number two. The spread to be among different people seems to be primarily among younger people who have been doing a variety of things. And we now. And socializing. Going to work. You know I don't know if we wanna get in the protest that was also constant among young people club Libby about what effect if any that had. But it's much younger and third perhaps for later that perhaps not. So far we've not really seen much of an increase. In death rates. In fact me yesterday some as he usually very slow for reporting it was the lowest and we are desperate US since late march. You know mighty hunched. Actually that summer about punches right. I think there's a chance they'll start to cup again because there's a lag between when you get infected. And when you've go to the hospital when you eventually pass away. The same time. I don't think the like explains all the probably. And for him to duck cooking nursing homes there are various theories about. The my worst looks like so there's a lot we don't know I'd say. Briefed on the health part and is looking at his Washington Post charred we're. He in mid April you're talking at 2000. Deaths a day or more than then and now you're in the range of 60500. And other state is a complete often but I think the comparison is useful in this disprove what was happening right now is different that would happen April in terms of deaths that may of course slightly that we don't know that yet. Because it doesn't actually lineup that perfectly with the reopening experts say right. Jury openings back in Georgia back at the end of April. And people kind of predicted are gonna have big spikes by the end of may denounced the the end of may now and June did you see the types of spikes. But not necessarily all that strongly related to which things. We're more open or more close let's think about a couple of things right number one arm. It's always more important. How could behaved in kind of what formal constraints there may or may not be. You people personally feel safe. Man. Things can be closed technically speaking and they are still socializing right. Maybe they're socializing in their own homes or were you know obviously. New York City right now right. People could take advantage of ambiguity. Up there are fresh look personal safety. Conversely. Things can be open people can just nights ago right before. Texas and Florida or kitchens on bars for example then. Restaurant reservations are going way down. Right when people realize oh my gosh there's expressed in these areas we're told me to stay home and so. If you have a perception that things are personally safe. And I can matter and there are some reasons why the perception began to become our common. A few weeks ago right one might have been that you had its initial round of re openings and actually all the declarations about a we're gonna have huge spikes. Didn't happen because we're being very careful initially right you know also. Obviously on. At the start of June. The nesting around. Social distancing changed. We hear you had all from people saying well this isn't really important but. We understand these protests are important to you bouncing risk. Trump again to hold rallies again. The national conversation moved away from code word these protests were the election and stuff like that you know get a big factor though is also rather. In Houston Texas each team for can hot do anything outside at least in the afternoon. In June July August. And so therefore give people. Going from the warm clothes and outdoor full. Ring in the south and southwest. Indoors to air conditioned environment by the air conditioning itself. Which circulates air and there are some suggestions that that media vector for spread as well. So it's kind of combination the climate and people letting their guard down. All right so we've laid out here some of the reason the Wyatt the numbers art ticking back up potentially in this province are west answered now these states which are more frequently. Governed by Republicans are trying to respond president trump. You know still doesn't really Wear a mask in public. So I'm curious Perry. How is this. Presented itself in Republican politics at the moment how our senators and governors and the president and vice president reacting to this. Sergeants so you seen over this last week particularly. Donald Trump is not wearing a mask ten of dismissing what's going on to some extent. But Mike Pence over the weekend was talking doubt he was wearing masks he seemed governors who I think the governor of Texas was saying and as an extent maybe we didn't we opened up too early. You're hearing Lamar Alexander talked about wearing a mess like they amend a messaging. On the democratic side was always Wear a man this is a very serious. The virus very seriously to stop its spread that you're seeing more of that from Republicans as wells I think this is now changing. It's not it's not know whether they were wrong in Texas or Florida the first place is different but other thing is like he saw early on. A lot of Republican governors are saying not only did they were as they discouraging to the mask used for the original saying. Cities cannot be more restrictive in the state is the return of preempting cities from doing more in the state was and now they've kept act threatened that the governor Arizona's now saying a city can have a mass destruction even if the state itself doesn't and that's important a lot of cities are run by Democrats. Themselves that the city's or are more restrictive in more focused on mass wearing for example that is in effect a lot of them lot of people who who live in those cities I think we're seeing over the last. Two weeks I would say is a shift on the Republican side they're probably includes everybody but the president. You know politically at its interest to deceive. Connecticut new York New Jersey man did togetherness. Some state coastal coalition said. Listen if you're coming from these close at six states. We're asking to quarantine. Obviously it's he can't really force that quarantine well. But. It I do think it speaks to the frustrations that certain states have wit. Frankly that these red states that are now experiencing spikes. In cases where there they're saying. You know that area around New Jersey Connecticut and New York politics quarantine is listen people on East Coast have been. Really putting in the at home work. And and we are irritated with these kind these states that students. Didn't take things seriously 66 weeks ago sealed you'll drive around the New York area yet seen. You know please call whatever 511 to check and see if you should be quarantining you're coming from upstate which is interest. So it is a yank its its. You're starting to see this very interesting. Versions like this that states. Distinct personalities and politics. I mean it I do think. A lot of people gone with the team this is happening in red states and the Republicans there is an evidence the Republicans are wearing masks. Most often the media early because of live in areas that are more parole but probably to control for that still. And are a bit less than ho about distancing. At the same time. This is actually spreading now and quite a few. And it is now well correlated with political views of the State's right. Nevada for example has issues right now California has a permanent issues. Their places like word and were not heard before come from me very very low baseline for the apps that numbers are high but the rate of increase is pretty high. And then see if people concerned about Florida Arizona to some extent Texas are kind of purple states is much they are red states and some of the spread isn't kind of more urban areas turn blue were in these states rights alike the notion this is just all these. No cools in. Red states I think is kind and kind of a line to pick it up but not as well as people. Assume with that said clearly in fact the politics of it for example. If you have all the sudden now Texas trailer accident want to shut things down with the hypothetically that Florida and Texas and Arizona. Want to keep something shut down. Until September. Win it's cooler getting concern kicking things back outside right. Well the stimulus package runs out in July even. You know maybe all of a sudden now senators from those states. Represented in those states are more interested now having more continued. Stimulants and we'd see might play out in the congress are definitely affects that. I would always because they are purple actually not and not read are also relevant electoral little talk about the next segment like there are a lot of implications. For sure are reasons he's been at the Atlantic kind of argued this exact thing by Ronald Brownstein. He wrote that the sun belt space could spell disaster for trump politically. He and there is areas. Is there reason to believe that kind of the severity of an outbreak wore it the mitigating. Efforts that states have to T eight do you change that state or affect it politically and other places we have got outbreaks moved away from trump. And Perrier are clerics here Buford fog has about jump in here. And you and I think some of the sun belts. Gases make a lot of sense that that if an outbreak becomes particularly pat at a place like. You know it Arizona is the Florida the west in the sense that it has a lot of retired people how well has a lot of older people. Editor at talk about chances is losing support with Alter. Older voters and and you know you can make some creek the educated guesses about why that might be older people are obviously. Partners effective age nineteen in the news their lives even its. Younger people go back to relative normal their lives will be quite abnormal. And isolated former all along time and I think that there. Is. You know there's anger. At that handling of the pandemic so you could you could see you know places in the sun belt that. Have a lot of retirees obviously this place a lot of younger people it mean. Places in the Sunbelt nursery. I think there you know among the tops are cities that younger people to. Also think about voting population in the states and box people kind of makes a lot of sense that that an actor that a big outbreak in place like that. Would have adverse electoral pacts obviously I stipulate it's not my for skits there and it's like. You know old people being scared died. But. I do you think that the politics of this year are so. You know we've talked about before with the old age of the candidates and now. The prospect. More imminent death because it's cove in nineteen people who are older I mean it it kind of raises the stakes I think for people and it's pretty stark way. So Zachary have an outbreak. But it's also. One out and the politics of it is. I'm not sure for rank and file voters Democrats Republicans or even elected officials. How much the divide is unnatural act approved at a restaurant lately big rig Abbott is handling the the outrage. Much worse and governor x.'s Democrat. What I would say is that Donald Trump himself is very important year in the I think get Donald Trump's message was listen to a health experts. Maybe this is the year which you don't get to go to bars very much Americans young people all people going to a bar this year indoors. Is maybe some leisure reconsider these next few months you can street. The rest of your life it's not too doesn't want. Like that might ease some of them a message worth hearing and all I think I didn't take it home fugitive home and it hit Elkhart. And doubts he said it in granddaddy etiquette statin BC its stated Rhonda Santos could say it and Soka for that matter to our polls and songs I do think peach drop effect here. Means the Republican elected officials are sort of nervous about being out in front and sounding too liberal compared you know. Separate from. It separate from politics that though the one thing that I have thought a lot about. Is how the way we live in different states suburbia vs urban environments. Like New York Al fresco dining verses like. Air conditioned suburban Texas like strip mall restaurants which I love but like those are different experiences. All this stuff it's not just the politics of the state it's like the literal ways that we go about our daily lives. You know. Is there he. You're kind of caught out by how. Helped his lifestyle affects the stuff to you and lifestyle Thatcher politics your political approach to this disease because it. Yes if you live in a place for everyone shops at BJ's and you can distance in the idols verses like going to the date like you gotta wait might outside Burnett. Make sure that only accept people aren't story wants that doesn't factor perception the disease as I mean it doesn't really have to do with the politics so much is just. America has a lot of different lifestyles. And and I'm not sure how much. How I think it's started as a city disease is an urban disease and capture suburban America. Has adapted to that yet. No point. I do want to move on because we have a lot of polls to talk about. Claire what's the thing by. Live pulls. Thankful. No what is it this teacher and I really want to happen. What's the T shirt. What to explain the joke vis the teacher would have liked you know at strip clubs usually has a big sign that points the arrows are playing to live girls. Like live Internet where this would have to live polls and peddling of. Eyes and it's still there want fired thirty's it's now merchandise. I mean if yet. Just keep it low grab your I think that you know it's too much time pressed up happening here on the spot cast me get a little program. On the race or are there a lot of polls life Paul's. That came out last week Saro let's talk Brownback and you know the national polls that came out confirmed what we are to talk on this podcast which is that there is a downward trend for trump. Around the country but. Last week we probably got them clearest picture. Honesty level of what the race looks like and that they get people to New York Times and Fox News or some other pollsters. Released high quality polls in fact New York Times has an a plus according to our pollster ratings and Fox News has an A minus according to our pollster rankings. Released polls of swing states and Biden landed in every single swing state. You both of those polls including in fox news's polling taxes and George although the lead there is within the margin of error. And the race for the senate also looked re read. For Republicans so. Let's dig into all back and let's start. By asking question that we like to ask from time to time good use of polling or bad news of Paul. So the Al Gore act so it responsibilities polls the L word came up a lot last week being landslide senate CNN publish an article titled. Donald Trump is peace in the prospect of a landslide loss. Newsweek also published an article but that trumps dire weaker poll shows him headed for a landslide loss. So. There is it too soon to be talking about a landslide when it comes to the 20/20 election is that a bad news appalling. I don't think it's a bad use of polling because I think that is a good sense of where the is a relevant question I think right now it points to a landslide. I did you worry that. American readers news consumers are not. Electoral experts and they get in there is at the media saying you'll be a landslide in November for sure. And I think that's those articles are saying. It is a looks like a landslide at this moment. But things could change. Trump is an alone moment that he can get his numbers did improve the country's in the just falling apart of course you're better than is a bad situations I don't. So I think is a good use of polling well I'm always nervous about. Are we doing a good job communicating uncertain the and how far the election is from today. To the readers have always been nervous about that provide 38 Eveready everybody else to. You know this is like about general. Our likens what he sixteen was that the evidence was there that trump could win. People did Knisley read it that way and I hope we're communicating that well. Yet I feel like it's a lot of people because he getting well actually conversation with someone they bring up like. You know that the big landslides of of the eighties and I kind of think. You know we don't really live in Orleans site of landslide election country anymore and and my part he says like. Look for small. He's time this this these times battleground state polls are getting a lot of attention an Odyssey to signal pole in. You know there's flat felt for months ago an election five months ago an election and things will probably. Revert a little bit but I just I I eight. Trying to impeach six months ago. And we don't. We hardly ever talk about that now I don't think that pandemic is that all the same thing because I think that is is going to be part of our life time. But I do think that sometimes in politics we. Mistake our immediate and coaches hear those feelings of immediacy are not in EU what we're feeling in six months from now you know anything it's that. And charm that uses a high level of uncertainty and chaos in the politics. To his detriment to his benefit electorally I guess the answer to time. So that's my point my other things like this is mrs. speaking of bringing that the pack the little more low ground. My immediate thought unseen. That like. Ream of New York Times pulling light poles live. They spent about this but how much money expended on polling this election it's like really quite. You know data on it out. You know a lot of single start with live polls I am. OK so. Does your broke come down on the side of could use upon your party's appalling. That it like actors. It's a day but it's you know we are. I do think that that there's this interesting thing where like. Listen I have I'm a hearty New York Times readers. And consumer but a lot of politically a lot of political media is written by what are the New York Times lead with what was the tea leaves podcast and like. It's a poll about polls and lake. To their credit they arguing battleground state polls what did you think is like. Very but also. The reason I got so much attention slightly crystal as a writes about it is because it's a New York Times like. You know join and so. You know but not grain of salt so much is like you. This is this is interesting but not like it's awesome June 29 and union have conventions that you guys. So. You know via its Super Tuesday dumped in the prop eighty symbolic. The authority and a neat. Spending my aide Kerry and I don't for a landslide in June. Tony funny. You can look it'll insulin is one possibility is it is a possibility. It's always a possibility that what's happening in the polls currently will also happen in. November for the whole democratic primary Joseph Biden was ahead. Until Iowa at least people like old Joseph Biden wins and Joseph Biden one and the came in second place Bernie Sanders was looking place. So yeah it's a possibility. Is it the most likely possibility are probably sitting on. Can trump still win of course it can write. Look I mean obviously when news organizations do polling. They can view her ten that there the only polls in the world to promote they're. New York Times saw something in your time to make sure you knew the that your times that it. And so those pulls in a lot of attention they are also really good holes they are people treated polls partnership between our print of the shot at your times. And Siena. And you haven't had that many rigorous high quality hold some of these states like Pennsylvania for example and so. I think there they go to good use of it used to polo on balance. Obama and so you know something that Claire maintenance on an that you alluded to do is the possibility for a reversion to the mean there's something we talk Ronald title in this podcast but. I guess you know if you look back pat. President's approval ratings throughout our history. Which you can hear on March 30 its website where reach out Tribe's approval rating. It's not like always the story of mean reverse and sometimes the bottom just fall out as was the case with George W must. President that was the case where George H. W. Bush. And it kind of the situation in people's minds which ten are in the case and hw was. Add a recession and there in the case W wise I guess the war in Iraq hurricane Katrina and that a recession. So has the bottom just falls out of there is no mean rivers so. White considering that were in a pandemic that is going to be affecting our wives through the election I think we can safely say at this point. Is there are and are an argument to make that we should be considering the that possibility of a bottom falling out just as much as we should be considering a reversion to the mean. Sure. I mean no one's ever gonna wanna like talk about that because you know the incentives are all to be on my dog you know the polls and he can be trusted anymore I and his soon. And from Italy should be pretty careful right. Oh yeah there's a possibility that like. Biden can win by more than he has had currently in polls that's possible I mean the caller earlier mentioned like. We're gonna no longer an era of electoral landslides and it's kind of an open question right. When you have more partisanship now there are fewer swing voters and so like. So you know if Herbert Hoover were running for reelection today. Although backing that when he's 36 did have fairly have polarization and then as well right. You know but. What is a. Twenty point landslide. An air of low polarization translate into it. Twelve point landslide to gain your something maybe something like that I'm not sure exactly. It's sure I mean if that if a pandemic is. Out of control again as rumor comes members are getting worse during a period between. Things are getting gradually better of the current virus front and now they're getting worse again right. And you get better get my November. Like yeah the possibility this thing just stick with us. All year at least in the late fall. I mean that's a pretty negative development effort from special because. We kind of condition in the economic stimulus and parents. Notion implicitly or explicitly that like OK well we'll have a wave in the spring. And then by the summer. And it'll be over or will have said screw it. And we're gonna normal again anyway right. The sect the second possibility is still possibly true but like but you know if you have people afraid to spend money in the economy when things opener nine misnomer stimulus right arm. We don't want is to be is a restaurant that has no customers and also no stimulus. Message to get for example in states where there's currently bedspread and so it just kind of all it all a big. Mass. Ensure you know and I think people all the sudden now are like quicker to. Kind of poke fun at trump. Media has to know more willing to connect characterize him as like having a losing strategy. They are asked more questions about his health and things like that so kind of the trump Teflon image I think has worn off I don't know if that matters at all and by the way anytime you lower expectations. That creates a chance to the come back later on right. Expectations are now pretty low for how well trump will do. Which could make. You know closing the gap from nine points to six point seem oh my gosh trump is making a comeback right. But yeah. Leslie as the numbers here. Trump's approval was 42. Most of its when he around 42 most of 2019. Early this year's it was down to forty right now. So. George W. Bush India did so about 30% approval. So I had to bet my debt would be more is that trump is bit charms the pros morality 4229. On Election Day but I if their case for it being 35 I think it actually could be where it is sort of a gradual. Slowed dropping off point where he who built it into the data comes barely noticeable we sort of keep tracking and his 36 is 37. It started at best seems to be in the range of possibility that pink. You're seeing a lot of Republicans and at the elite level tenants jumping up and saying I've had enough of this I'm breaking with him and I think it's getting easier to do that. And not only looks like he's going to lose and people in and be awful losing losing sit up. And also because he's doing things that are getting more erratic in the east to be liked it's also rallied but thinks he's saying the tweets over the weekend all the things individually don't matter all of these things together might give people Biden is sort of not being interesting he's nothing about a controversial things was of your Republican means. Maybe I can skip the selections I keep saying is every week so I'm. Board will hurt me say before they do think there's a case. At the landslide is worth considering because is trump is getting slightly more unpopular and may be that continues. Until Election Day we're to we're Georgian Texas are actually winnable states provide. The landslide scares people scares Republicans their talking about the senate. I mean I think that acts like you know you could say. Find Wheatley is that you know whatever trump you know. Trump loses narrowly but we keep the senate when people start to feel freaked out about like what they perceived to be it seat chamber. Then I think you use you start disease. A little bit lower self preservation kicking and things of people saying. You know behind closed doors kind of making it entity open air. The Al fresco it for talking about. Our dining situation encoded nineteen. Like take that take the bounties that that. That the Russians. Have apparently been putting on American soldiers heads in Afghanistan. And she has the story broke and changed it tree kind of reflects well on track because human rallies friends at Bruton and you could see trump. You know potentially getting in front of some microphones and seeing some ill advised complimentary things about Clinton who's attracted. You know what it a faux referendum passed in this country so he could stake president for life basically you can see. There being another like mini scandal at six trumps approval numbers even more and that makes. Establishment Republicans you know smacked their heads and despair even more like there's lots of stuff he could do. I can't imagine scenarios for trump does that is. That shakes people's there's belief in his leadership abilities in more the economy you know you look at those those polling numbers of people are still. Mark proving his handling of the economic. State of things but if we get you know it's it's these with these waves of illness continue to come. What does that mean for the US economy nothing good right so. Even that is it is a very you know it's it's a foundation sand. You look at these. Polls in Ohio and Georgia and that's a big story Sumi is like these senate polls like gifts. I did not think the Democrats had much of its yeah eyewitness that is below 50% of Democrats in the senate before it biggest. Probably in my view closer look at the picking on the little Irish yes it in part is. He looks like in Iowa Biden is not doing particularly Biden is doing pretty well and the city Candace and pretty well the others do the art soft numbers and shores it looks like. The Democrats we can pay that I went to their win those states did. But the map to the Democrats win the senate is a lot clear Arizona Colorado like the winds for sure north Carolina's very competitive means very competitive Montana's very competitive. I do you see that second I mean I do think the landslide scenario matters a lot because. A landslide in which the Democrats also get. You two to say that cease is a really big story. For governing for policy for the country. Yeah I think that's still have and actually see your point I think it's a good one I think I'd still have that. 2016 and there's a period of time where there tons of news stories about how Clinton was an eyewitness. This potential land side and I do remember. Us talking with some democratic strategists. You know off. Are on the sidelines about if I don't know we're may be a nervous about certain places are certain demographics more than. And those stories might indicate so I'm so I'm a little bit that stuff. It's kind of in the back my mind and with this election I don't think you know I think child's performance and leadership will continue to be touted by people. What I looked to me what the big question marks at this election it's it's. It's turnout in a largely in potentially a largely vote by mail election it's. It's confusion about the administration. It's owed to more people register like we'll states does George. This potentially new swing state that didn't have the big uptick in voter registration will something. Really unprecedented happened there with new people voting I don't know there's so much they're so many. Unknowns about the administration of this election. That that fact to me is kind of this it's both boring and fast needing. Because. No one likes to think about the actual weight we you know. Write in ballots cast paper but. Addicts a huge difference this year and it's where there's tons of litigation going on. I I think is important and emphasized the polls are of of of panic and electorate. We're assuming people get to vote we're assuming they get to vote in a fair process resuming India they're assuming. Collison of the electorate. That'll mean that minorities to vote and everybody is on the way they have a force obviously if like the some reason that the that the voting process opens disrupted that's going to be in the polls are all off in a certain ways it's like work. This deadly work that you but I would say though that. Democrats are not as. Did the numbers suggest Democrats right now should now be as worried about new voters are voter registration that kind of thing. Because the data we have now suggest trump is but is doing well among the sort of traditional pool of voters like. Biden is losing out by these are much better than Clinton among seniors among divorce divide among white seniors particularly what his black numbers and up his numbers among black as in a particularly great in numbers of minority voters are sort of fly. What he's doing much better among sort of lighter and and then more conservative to some extent an older voters. And that can't and that I assume there's no Republican way to like write the rules of voting no Barlow white seniors from voting is as possible will vote for the Republicans like think that actors who weighed Biden is winning right now is a way that is like to be sort of makes it makes the other hard to sort of Regan anyway to make it harder for Biden to win. Assuming everyone gets voted. Yeah dots one of the takeaways from the kind of onslaught of polls that we saw last week was. Particular parts of the electorate that are shifting towards Biden and how that's affecting individual states and their four. The gap between the national polls and the Electoral College. Me I'm interested in your take away after last week. Is there are still a gap between the national polls and the tipping point state I'd either state that would kind of we in Biden or trump the Electoral College. Well maybe it bit less. Then people would have thought years ago. One set of states where companies clearly losing more ground it seems then use nationally is in. He's white working class upper midwest states so. I'm Wisconsin Michigan. A little less clear attempting Pennsylvania but it's kind of often popular with the group as well as. Florida. I think because Biden is doing realty development older voters when it's related to the kind of maker announced his older people like Joseph Biden not entirely clear. Not like those four states Florida Michigan. Pennsylvania Wisconsin are probably the worm most important states electoral college and so that's where brides made more gains than. And probably has narrow that gap. A bit from these Kenny priest when he states to remember if your election today even if the polls are Canadian remotely close. Environments while Lott writes for the electorate college map doesn't matter what happened so things should backwards from may be those who would be the can be swinging elastic as we call it. They might shift back a feared dead on the yet Biden's coalition now looks. A little bit more of a bit more like looks like kind of a hybrid of Obama's coalition. In 208 when he twelve which performed. Quick efficient left for college. Vs the Clinton coalition to put ex team which. It almost as well the popular vote but obviously disaster for Democrats Electoral College wise. So you know. The fact that Biden's doing well among a little better among older whites and working class whites and maybe actually not a twelve Clinton among. Hispanics for example. May actually. Be better Americans than for college then the twisted version. So one question that we you know talk to season. Amount of our in 2016. Unit was whether the people who really weren't into Clint in. During the primaries. Came around to her during the general. Is there any indication from the polling that we see so far that Sanders supporters. Or supporters of any other candidate for that matter. Are coming around to Biden and now planning on voting for him in higher numbers than say they voted for Clinton in 2016. I'm I haven't seen I haven't seen those. Break out mean there aren't that many Sanders supporters. As compared to. As compared to four years ago right which means you might expect. Because now this tenders furthermore diehards depends like all the people who. Oppose Clinton you know. There he might add you as well. As a share of Sadr supporters but still does make sense this is like getting very happy right. Yes but it like this and it laborers are smaller group of people Aaron so. Biting can win more votes but still went out smaller portion officers' partners. Are designed. Look red yet. But look like eight. I mean the very fact that you. And corona virus only stories that protest you haven't seen this much. You now certainly it seems like. There is very uniform anti trump. Spirit among Democrats and liberals if you're not pissed off as a liberal about her on a virus you're probably pissed off about how trump is connected the protests. And you know Mike Pence refusing to save likewise matter and the fact that. The economy is not in very good shape to say the least right. You have a lot to be worried about. And you know so I think that kind as maybe some assumed. The usual infighting. You know was gonna say that like O the sixth election are that high so we can afford to cast a protest vote right no one's commitment. Say that I don't think in be taken seriously in democratic circles. I would say that I was as I was doing a story about black voters the day is existed Biden's. The enthusiasm agreed to present turnout levels or Biden or higher for black voters over 45 under 45 so does not shocking because of it goes the idea that a plea under third. So goes the idea there is some and I cannot help quell the map on black young voters them. Sanders voters but I think this gives an indication so that they soaps I think Biden Havel listened to his own people under 35 they still me vote in the let legal provide an but I think there's. Ro back to your look at your Biden. The ideal scenario either of the some kind of vice president candidate who would excite the people under 35 but not annoy the people over 45 were the bigger part of electorate. There would be an ideal pick of course. I don't think Stacy rooms it was a Florida public Harris people those things once they they might annoy some people older or. Overnight and I thus inspired when we're younger but I think that there is a little sense I think there is some some data that Biden is the candidate Kennedy older Democrat. And that's that's fine as like it might be beat a better option candidate candidate for the younger Democrat whose might be struggle the older part electric. All right so before we go you brought up and a little bit the race for this Saturday Claire and Perry. We did get news center polling last week along with the state level polls so I just wanna focus in on now a little bit before we go. You don't hasn't gotten to the point where GOP senators feel comfortable in competitive races feel comfortable breaking with trump and if so. You know who. Where in you know mean Colorado. Georgia Montana. Arizona. At senator are we seeing. Kind of candidates in competitive races start to think that they need to chart or on our. Like when you talk to people about. Senate races in. Competitive states. The strategy is always. Every. Election. Every candidate passed to. Essentially read the room and his look how race so. You have to eat we talked a lot about this 2018. Who's in racing the president and who is trying to push away you know that we talked about Marc the next Alley in. In Arizona a lot who is this kind of bar. Establishment. Republic can kind of marsh straight laced and she sort of it was like the awkward hug death trap right it didn't quite see it as well. And I think that calculus and 22 point is potentially pretty different where people. Mike focus more on the particularly like that that pandemic politics of their state being sort of a I'm looking now for. You know your actress Washington. So you saw Collins is definitely doing some of the usual dancing away from trump she voted against judicial nominee. Couple weeks ago I think she will because he's an up a standing by in the win win for sure so columns get into some of that. I actually think that you're gonna see more. Republicans consider races and house races tried it is themselves from trump is these were unpopular. And I think that's probably a mistake my sense is there were in an era and we it's partisanship. And party alignment is pretty strong. And the Republicans are whatever the morals of this are better off trying to do everything possible to get trot back to 43%. Approval. As opposed to saying. Drop his gun but I know in my race science as a brilliant save opposite into when he eighteen pretty much every. House to house Republican and a swing district lost and a lot of under a lot of dancing this on his show how independent they were it didn't work. And so I think if you want to Mitch McConnell is doing. I am not a mr. Bell's running up eastward at his own race is not gonna win his own reason ms. McConnell. Is very strongly defending trump. Pretty much at all times and my guess is Mitch McConnell has thought about the Republican brand itself. He was there and only when bush is detailed plots like the whole party down in my guess is McConnell decided we that you need to support from to give him back to 43. Or so so that we don't lose every senate race which is whether which are poised to do right now. It's your kind of argued he gets the right idea that people would tickets split at all. Yes I am suggesting that is less maybe in Maine I don't I'm like you know obviously in with Syria that happens it happens in some cases I think it may be. I think we'd I think the senators tend to overestimate their ability difference it themselves from the president's tour you know yeah. I mean there are people who. Want to tickets split the problem is he did it get his human election need to know which way you're splitting right if you assume that. Tempest in a way and you look at we definitely needed democratic senate to. Writing a check and balance the human I think when I actually though if Biden wins I'm fine with Susan Collins. Holding in the senate and so you know he had actually dynamic between. Expectations about the presidential race. And the way people vote. We're down now operations. You know you also have dynamics where I mean I don't I mean I do think like states like Iowa. Are joint appearances kind of as a rising star in the GOP all the sudden poll also in Iowa closely so Georgia clothes they should do. Depending on who would be the nominee Kansas close right. The Democrats are actually favors rich and estates but like both a little bit of kind of canary in the coal mine types of races we're. We're. You know you would imagine that he fairly deep number Republicans feel vulnerable right now. And you know one of those nearest the numbers are over it for trumpet be if they say okay we're actually better off cutting bait and saying. You know we need you to provide tax amounts and instinct Joseph Biden. Liberal leftists hegemony that happening without a Republican senate. Did happen and all in 2016. I'm trying to hurt think about the calculus that you guys are describing between. You know if Republican senators do break with trump then maybe that has the result. Then meet has the effect. Trump falling further in the polls depressing Republican turnout even more and then scrolling then themselves that senators in the long run. So I mean what half hearted. Republican senators. Governors. Representatives and house straddled that's when things were looking really bad for trump in 2016. I mean critics it was kind of a weird election I'm not mistaken. Like Democrats actually. What are just hours thing you dunks that rejects. Now if I'm not mistaken caught them having to bring partly Democrats actually gain seats in the house and when sixteen right. It is a bit unusual for win. A party loses the presidency. On the same time most voters thought the Clinton when wins so they weren't necessarily concerned about kind of ticket balancing against. From although in the house floor and sent in a very big democratic wave in 28 teams so it's all a bit yet to potentially gained sixty. In the house and when it sixteen which is a little bit unusual. When you lose the presidency. When they haven't had a very bad year and when he fourteen and so you can have a rebound from that. Look I don't mean obviously the trifecta is. And play this year for Democrats particularly from both parties. And how Republicans lower. Lewd to have legitimate concern luckily we're discussing like. At various points the primaries look at what were the chances like. Medicare for all would actually pass right. I think the chancellor. As low was he would have thought the war right. I think they're very low. Because they're not that many senators who. Necessarily endorsement care for all but like possibly could have a giant democratic majority in the house. And Biden having won in this. You know home in Georgia and states like that are really blew looking map right. Now parties are famously took in a lot of with a capital Obama in 2000. Eight for example of us really gotten that much mileage out of it. But if you had that type of scenario then. Then you might expect Biden. And Democrats to squeeze. Winder to. Major pieces of legislation out of that. End Democrats in a pretty ambitious agenda for what that might constitute and so. If you're worried about. About liberal sitting in office and and securing a lot of power I mean I think. Joseph Biden might be lucky has a big mandate in Maine ambiance personality. To push it that far. But he now. Between the fact that kind of everything is gonna be kind in shambles may be too strong a word but like. A lot of people's perceptions may be reset is a lot of repair work to do you want in the infrastructure of the economy after coded. You know there could peaceably changes afoot if Democrats to get this upside an element of upsets area and we'll scenario but the upside scenario winning by large margins. What do you think he got in this regard is it's easy to say this now hindsight is tweets when he but. If the Democrats had a well known. High quality candidate with a national fund raising base in Georgia and Texas. No peachtree leasehold of them right now as opposed them trying to like runs of the unknowns. And get those people over the line. And so we had to people who would have been those candidates run for president and not and don't know what's giving it. One of the reverend DP in a sort of giving was appears mediating no recourse getting our friend of Cato Stacey Abrams and I do think that those. Its shores in Texas senators arisen because it looks to me like. Did that Biden is back in his a lot of money trying to win those states. And that the party is not going to be either but I think it's better though and Abrams are running. They have their own bases they can raise money saying Bassett and I'm very much right now the story to me is less. Is biting into an election war is but I'm gonna win. This huge landslide is missing and I think George in Texas would be the landslides and there and I and to me doesn't like it looks like. You might not win those states in part because the parties not invest in the much money and. And it's it's rough to be intent next polyps democratic politicians here whose big name in Chinese team I mean. Better that his campaign manager is now I scan it managers. It's. You know. I don't really anything profound hearsay fill in the blank. Human skin and a hard time she. Yeah as an armored hasn't been checked on a recently. Absolutely there answered by those little things some serious. With. Aren't enough well let's leave things that are. Thinking eight. Thank you can't read thank you Claire big steel. And thank you Perry thanks still. My name is Gayle Andrews attorney chow is in the virtual control room you can get in touch by emailing us at podcast at 530 dot com. You can also of course greeted us with questions or comments. If you're a fan of the show readers of Reading or reviewed in the apple podcast store or tell someone about us banks are listening and policies. Yeah.
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