FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: Are Democrats ready to impeach President Trump?

The FiveThirtyEight crew discusses how the Ukraine story changes Democrats’ calculus on voting to impeach Trump and if Elizabeth Warren is now the front-runner in Iowa.
45:32 | 09/24/19

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Transcript for FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: Are Democrats ready to impeach President Trump?
Hey you're watching the 530 politics podcast on ABC news live today we're going to be talking about president trumps conversation but the Ukrainian president. And whether he has reported. Pressured him to investigate Joseph Biden's son as well we'll get into a new poll out of Iowa shown Elizabeth Warren. Leading you're watching ABC news lies several news outlets reported beginning on Friday that trump pressured the Ukrainian president investigate Joseph Biden and his son. And then on Sunday trump confirmed that he did speak to the Ukrainian president about the Biden's here with me to discuss our editor and chief Nate Silver. Hey America this brings some energy. Thank Nate and senior writer Claire Milan. In the last few days the Washington Post and the New York Times have both reported that someone in the US intelligence community. Filed he whistle blower complaint on August 12. That involved president trump making eight quote unspecified commitment to a foreign leader that includes other actions. More details emerge since Patton. The Wall Street Journal reported that president trump in each July phone call repeatedly pressured the president of Ukraine to investigate Joseph Biden's son hunter. Urging global premier Zealand ski about eight times to work with Rudy Giuliani the presidential air. On a probe that could hamper mr. Trump's 20/20 opponent. Giuliani and trump watch Ukraine told look into whether chill I would serving as vice president. It properly push for Ukrainian investigators to be fired because he was nasty the Ukrainian Oleg mark. Who owned company that Biden's son hunter by. Was in called what you got that. A connect Giuliani and trump have not provided any evidence to back up these claims a little bit more and then we're almost done this set up. Also hanging over office. Is US military aid to Ukraine and whether trump was holding that back to incentivized Ukraine to look into the Biden's story. The administration hasn't released the transcript of this call so we don't know if this was a quid pro quo situation. Really there's actually a lot we don't know. The chalk himself said that he talks to excellent ski out that's their Ukrainian leader about corruption and out hunter by. Here's a clip from Sunday as trump spoke to reporters outside the White House. Take that I had quite large lead in Baghdad that what blog link Iraq and all of the garrote. Pain got a lot of problems. If you read that it is saying that he's going to be a had died that that would be a great day we had a great job today. We covered many different topic. Okay and just before we started recording this podcasts for hearing Monday midday. Trump was asked again at the UN general assembly in New York about his call with so Lansky. And he sad quote it's very important to talk about corruption. If you don't talk about corruption why would you give money to a country that you think is corrupt. It's very important that on occasion you speak to somebody out corruption. Our bats are set up. So first of all Claire great job setting that up before we like really get into the nitty gritty anymore. How big of the analysts estimate it kind of broke all on quick succession where you're like oh my god oh my god a re elect my. OK I mean if hammock and a reaction. There are certain types of stories that. By 38. Likes talking about because there one key indeed driven her poll driven right. Burglar is clear empirical in the symptoms and some. Sees me types of stories where it's like. This might be beat deal but. But it's a little harder for us sit at value on what we say about it. You know elect. In some ways. If the allegations are true that. That trump quick pressure. On in Ukraine. To dredge up dirt on Joseph Biden and in some ways it's kind of a cleaner through line. The van and the Russia stands directly involves trumpets you know potentially if true it clear quid pro quo. We'll probably get some discussions that what that means forward. Impeachment. You know you kind of get the sense from kind of Reading. Com. What liberals into one bellicose kind of the straw that broke the camel's back yeah on the other hand I can argue and perhaps that will argue that are honest Mike Castle like. In some ways. The constant calls for impeachment. Have made it harder for a potentially higher impact story to be differentiated from this. Kind of massive vote trump is doing lots of crap stuff and we know that therefore is a 42% approval rating but also we don't want impeachment. I will say I this is a little bit of big story and I take all of of what you say neat that that there are. They're certainly reactions that Democrats tend to have in the wake of of stories like this that they always kind of like ramped up its attend. But I think a couple things are going on that have caught people's eye with the story. One is that it involves. AE eight. The front of the current front runner in the democratic primary yeah and trump and trump obviously see acting trump probably sees a couple of people as his biggest opponents. And so like I do think what is happening here at what a lot of political people recognize is okay we've just sat and narrative for the 20/20 election you know this is. Something that trump if it by becomes the nominee would probably come back to you again. Yes. And I do want to get into that I think we should talk about how this affects trumps a reelection how this affects potentially Biden's. Primary fight but just come back this story itself. My first reaction was this is a big story. Ma'am. Yeah I mean I this all kind of kicked off with the Giuliani in your view on. Chris Cuomo show on CNN Thursday night inflicted the dishes in Chile on eclipsed come across the transom making some pretty being. Allegations. Well what's funny actually as my dad was Damon me for the past couple days. And normally I don't watch television news but my dad watches television nonstop. And so I just saw a passive I must ABC right. Yet cable news this encampments. Am. And and so I saw this all develop and so actually my my arms and my first reaction most. At first we didn't have that the tale about Ukraine and it Ito about. Trump specifically pressuring for an investigation of pine and so lose all speculation. About this whistle blower complaint. Am like medium milling know anything else except that it involved the foreign. Leader but once that once at Wall Street Journal story really had with the I am or at least repeatedly bringing up. Side in an assignment. I mean get my actually my first reaction was replaced Ukraine with Russia. And and it it would sort of lived in the smoking gun in the Muller investigation. Yes I think we should note here that the call with the Ukrainian president took place the day after Mueller testified before congress. And now parts amazing that sort of the if you remember once once Moeller was done testifying. In this feeling with sort of like okay that kind of Russian destination is over Aaron trump has has mostly escaped. I am. And then the next day apparently he's sort of asked moving gradually less like reportedly asks a foreign leader frankly interfere with. US election. But anyway let's let's get into what I think is the developing story now. Which is how does this change and impeachment calculations referred Democrats on the hill and Republicans on the house let's start with. Democrats. Nate you where you were getting into a tape earlier. Does this change things for them. I mean it depends on in. If they care about. The underlying conduct or that political wisdom of impeachment right. And some. Distant level those two are tied together potentially yeah but. So. Previously. Pulls into two or something like 35. To 38% in favor. 55. To 50% opposed somewhere and it was standing with a few people undecided. Despite that. There was a lot of pressure from. A firm democratic rank and file to begin. Impeachment proceedings against trump of course there's a lot of ambiguity about liquidity hearing as are processes are proceeding as a weapon actually means. You know polo see it sort of seem like she wanted to slow walk it and this is another. Catalyst for people calling for her impeachment. In part because if trump doesn't release. This transcript of the calls he has in these kind of defying congress' authority and that in some new ways as a mower. Traditional grounds for you know you had to prompt the separation of powers a tetris. What we don't know yet is how biggest real ballistic with the public you know move the needle in terms of public perception you know IE thing. Progressive Democrats are calling for impeachment. Have some flimsy arguments at the used to kind of wave away the fact. That. It's quite a popular despite Crump also been quite unpopular and that a lot of voters. Probably saying hey look we got us where an election next year we got this we can decide for ourselves. Whether. Whether we want four more years of trump or not. He but yet I mean I think you need is right that impeachment up until now has been pretty unpopular. What's interesting to watch over the past couple of days basically since the story is broken and since. Nancy Pelosi put out a letter to the administration saying you have until this Thursday to two basically it release more information. You're seeing reporting coming out in the past couple of days. About congressional Democrats saying. Essentially oh some of these moderates. Are considering may be changing their stance on impeachment and maybe they'd vote for at this time and I think. What that what those noises are in the reporting. Is probably these moderates. Kind of waiting to see what happens now ages to wait to see it if the White House response to policies kind of Thursday threat. But also to see how it plays out with the public like if people see this as. In more popular thing and the mullah report version of impeachment. And they're to add that I mean do you think it they well there there is an argument I guess that this is a much cleaner and simpler. Offends quote unquote to hang impeachment. On am I mean what will see yeah I mean in some ways in my helped prompt that's a kind of muddled together you know when you when you get into these. Discussions. Progressives who are like well impeachment could politically when those from him popular and often say well as a public learns more. About the case in public manual shift as it did for Richard Nixon. And a rebuttal that which there's not a good rebuttal to frankly. Is that. The Russia story it was the most covered story. By the media over the past two years the numbers did not move when bit as it was covered more than members of not one bit as more Democrats called impeachment. As they have. So the notion the public that just misinformed. Seats in you know. Be taught but me here but but but but the difference is that the story. Might actually be new plant to announce its not chewing over the same stuff that Gretchen or for three years this might actually beat new and it. And you now. Eyewitness in them or that politically the more that Democrats can. Separate out and say this is new this is news his. A much bigger deal and the more trump can model it and sale to same old. I think I mean I walked into the office this morning and and basically said to Mike pavlik. Is this is is can it be let what will be impeachment. Charges be what would they eat what they V. About on political grounds as you Mike sent me. Would they be like on the Richard Nixon version of abuse of power grabs or as you know Rick Hazen has sort of accused of slate is are gearing. This morning and at peace well perhaps this could be a campaign finance charge right like animals adequate the quid pro quo. Could be treated us like is a potential contribution rates of those theories that are floating around. But what I think. Is is always in the back of my mind is. How the trumped him chump team is going to defend against this right and I don't think that they will probably do. My guess would be that they'll say this is politics. This is like normal red because that was their that was their. Trump tower meeting argued it was like you take anybody with take them any daily ticket information for the difference now is that China's president and not just at a private. Yet stopped ticker like he said. All I would never do that kind of thing with Russia are right it's kind of like you know at. Democrats are mad about this but in now by Hansgen how Tyrell a little bit. And he hasn't really been particularly like. Apologetic or backing off in the press conference is either blood that was so actually I wanted to go back to that trump quote that. That came out just before we started recording and I am semi said. Quote it's very important to talk about corruption if you don't talk about corruption why would you give money to a country that you think is corrupt. It's very important on occasion you speak to somebody about corruption. So we haven't seen the transcript of the call yet boats notable to me about that is. Trump is connecting. That conversation had to the money. Right now I'm and that's the big thing we don't know stale is. Trump has said he talked to the to to the Ukrainian president about. About Hunter Biden right but we don't know yet whether he also talked and or explicitly connected that commerce station. To the military the US military aid to Ukraine. It's the fact that. I mean I'm like reading tea leaves deregulate the fact that trump. Is making that connection in the way he's thinking about the call well let's remember him. One thing that I think similar report prove true is that trump is. Actually somewhat careful about the precise way and he frames things in conversations that came bees and flies right. Means we learn from them apart well my small sample size right like me never quite got the smoking. Done. But some never send to it like never set is an explicit nudity or even when you're talking Michael -- when Michael Cohen testified before crown congress. About you know. Payoffs he was arranging for trump he basically said he never says it it's explicitly. There's an understanding and know and you know Colin basically said having been around him for years and understood how the organization operated I knew what he wanted me to DO. The top never explicitly set. Do you guys staying. So how speaker Nancy Pelosi has essentially. Drawn the line on impeachment. From the stance of congressional Republicans essentially saying. Impeachment passed be bipartisan and down. And and so therefore human needs some congressional Republicans to get on board if if policy is gonna sort of move ahead with impeachment now with sets out she's framed it before all this happened right. Do you think this. Story has a potential to change the countless for either elected Republicans in congress in particular or Republican voters. I mean. Again in some ways I think are putting the cart. Before the. Or threat we don't know that much about the story in his they're smoking gun how that develops an army at Mitt Romney kind of sense it's pretty bad with Jeff think. You know. I don't know I'm gonna toss this kind of whole sense which talked later about like. House for a break on Biden potentially and is like a cynical played by. By trump to have like it kind of sea level scandal it's mostly at Edwards by corruption yet. But but I don't know I mean we first you know kind of full candor were like. We really need to discuss or in the pockets and ultimate still developing and obviously there are things you can decide for its operator where there we have useful things to say about this or not I do you think. This is a story in the fairly early stages. And so yeah a little motive. Humility around that and obviously Pelosi I think is reading the polls the same way that frankly I would right now like elect. Compass pretty unpopular. I mean you could okay. You could just point out that right now proposal is an abiding by ten points a little let's go to that Sanders by five points and Warren Mike four and a half points right. You can kind of say okay. Maybe we should be. Risk averse because right now Laurie good factory. And so why don't want an increased volatility and maybe it actually would make trump even more popular David make him more popular instead but like but the kicker is trajectories it right now them why. Another complication. To the works. You know and maybe she figures well the base has to be behind us and now the base is getting Miree. Upset about this and we needed to turn out to you know to actually. Reelect people in congress thing is its economy turn your presidential year. Wait that is that is that Clara you'd think. Like that that the impeachment decision will be made in congress like okay they're all these competing interest that the merits of the case right. Whenever case it is and yet he you do to actually see some members of congress ordered to sang. You know. But this is 11. Draw to many you know. And then there's the politics of it both the politics. Where it. Potential swing voters but also with companies switched which. As Nate said is the base now just can be like you better free can impeach or routes. I mean. It's unclear. How does it hit I actually think its there really hard calculation for the right because it's. I think Democrats are probably. United from an ethical point of view and saying that they believed that trump acts corruptly. Potentially criminally -- times. But there is this. Fraction of them. That is acting. Having a freeze it. With you know in a realpolitik manner in Machiavelli and understanding. Power politics and when your best play as and they are saying. Either don't impeach or in this newest case wait and see. And I think that they get a lot of those those people get quite a bit of slack from progressive voices saying. You are falling down in your moral leadership of this party we will remember that. You know you'll you'll seal Hampshire you'll seal lot of primary challengers. To. You know moderate Democrats who have taken that stance being like you you have. You have abdicated your audience but I think it is a real. For this at this point in time I think policies and an interest in moment where she is probably spending the week. Very closely monitoring how people are you taking this and frankly how the media is covering. How trump acts about it I mean I do it there's credence to the idea that he does want to smudged together. Biden in Ukraine and how much are you feeding into. A beast of USEC I don't know I think it's. I mean I'd I don't know that policy is played. This particularly well because you know I'm me at times it seemed like she's more so there's not enough there there. Oh tendency you know associates like katic consistent stance and like why you wouldn't impeach in some ways I think. The owed no Republicans or go along and so was a gets them. Best argument right I think in some ways of a sort of a close could may elect of course is conduct. Is horrible right. But for us that benefit an impeachment. Is a possibility of removing a president from office and we have no chance to do with the public with he Republican senate. Therefore our remedy would be to the American people need to remove the president from office where to focus on our agenda. Like she starred in May be kind of make that argument now it's in the it was a Napa four and there is always have and we talked before like during like the various stages of the Muller investigation rang at like well what if a new item comes along kind of tip the scale could like. Pelosi be this kind of awkward. Middle zone. But maybe as a serious enough where it actually will also affect underlying. Public opinion on trump I know I just come back to like the fact that there's an election and fourteen months. And historically impeachment come when a president is a lame duck or officials are noticeably to remove him from office by at the electorate right and so you know. I'm not sure why there's not more wait put on that. Won't that impeachment and extreme remedy and by the way we can't like I don't know wallet. It's. To me it's not to match that it it's YE. The views of the congressional Republicans matters much because as long as the idea Republicans voting to removed from. Seems a fantasy. When you're talking about this ending in Trump's acquittal if it even makes a bad house right who decides. Exactly. And in that world a pivoting impeachment takes five. 67 months up that right which is about talent that Clinton impeachment. Down. Then you're talking about it like playing now. Almost perfectly overlapped with the democratic primaries and caucuses. Which. Just seems like a disaster for Democrats and some ways disaster but to site. It just seems like an eight points bad timing but I don't know if if if if you think that met in this merits impeachment that's at least a coherent argument right well. Frankly. The more reason people who action or constitutional scholars they say yes impeachment is inherently. Impart a political process. And you know I mean I think we need it about incentives where okay. We're gonna impeach you even if it helps you win reelection. ITunes where it is not a really great. Disincentive to do impeachable stuff Burgess saying we're gonna impeach you if we can hurt you wharf before she removed from office right. So I don't buy I don't think Pelosi has. Had to pick a good answer to critics who were advocating for. Impeachment I think she kind of hey it's all done and gradually the Russian stop will fade out which may have been correct calculation but if trump has a habit of and is trying to tell collude with the joint fundraisers you know says gardeners a trying to encourage foreign governments to. Make it harder for democratic opponents then. Then that's you know that's a problem for her. But I an ally look at if I'd have that right now I'd say the public doesn't move based on this I'm not it not a big way. Easement to say I think people are fatigued by this kind of thing and and I know that's a note like that sounds like a cynical thing to say but. We spent the past two years basically listening to. A Russian version of this story kind of feels like a redux of well Russia collusion story. He's the I would I would put it located my eight but I would push back and that a little and the justice. I'll use myself as a proxy for the public witches of a bad thing to do to some not a creek proxy. But. I already feel like at the battle better handle on this story even though it's still developing even though we still don't know a lot and I ever did on the process story. Maybe says a lot but this one of those stories were like as we sit here three days that Janet Lee editor. It's kind of like I think we're all making educated guesses on like how is the American public reacted to these. These previous kind of like well trod paths of the -- administration of congressional Democrats but obviously. As we sit here midday Monday September 23 it is a new think and we don't know like and you have to take that into account. Also I think what will be interesting to see is. How did stick. Sort doesn't stick with buy it right the idea that. Fox someone tweeted out like the Fox News homepage. Where guests it's citing Devin Nunez saying that like Biden is going to drop Biden is going to drop outs imminently because of this. Scant saudis see there's going to be certain line that is pushed in parts of the conservative media. I also think that the American people have a long term relationship with Joseph Biden you know and ends and so. Whether or not though believe credibly that he did that something happens. You know or if they'll or if as as the current evidence stands nothing untoward seems to have happened with Biden himself Jo Brighton. With the appearance that's correct it I'm saying it it's troublesome. Will be right back to talk about that. We're back at new numbers Iowa Shawn Sanders down. The Des Moines Register released a new poll on Saturday show in Elizabeth warrant holding a two point lead over Joseph Biden among likely Democratic Caucus voters. 122%. Biden had 20%. This according to and seltzer from the show subject of great. Claire Milan profile that everybody should read lamb. But shelter told that the Moines register oppose this has been the first major shakeup and what has been fairly steady race and so let's start with the broad question Adam. Is this the first major shakeup may stand right. No. Because this is a predictable result based on the way the polls have ended nationally in fact on Friday afternoon Mike didn't have participated try to gonna participate. I put up my guesses on what Apollo would be in this is just based on looking at other polls of Iowa plus trend since last author poll. During which time Warren has gained a bunch of points nationally. And I predicted it would save Warren 23 Biden when me. The actual result was worn 22 Biden twenty. And affect every candidate I was within two percentage points except for. Bernie Sanders. Who I think is the real story of this poll because that is newsworthy he's struggling a lot. In Iowa and he was 11% in this poll. As a candidate who. Got 49 point 8% of the vote must him and I obviously virtually tied Clinton there. That was a surprising number to me I had kind of educate aggressively thought he'd be at sixteen. Or thereabouts which is not great so for me yeah I mean for me he would have expected Warren to. So I was not surprised and its effects outweigh were it. OK to just a run through the results warrant funny to Biden twining Sanders eleven that a judge nine Harris sex. Klobuchar three Booker three or worked to Gabbert to Yang to expire. Claire. Was was your headline from this also about Sanders being down or is it about Warren being up our third option. Headline stands that Warren is up and it and I think it's mean need is correct that the trend line was. That way but I think most people read the news differently than Nate even though we have a website. Constructed to make them viewed and even used differently through him but but yes I I do think it is notable. That Warren. Has taken the first slot I think it kind of we've spent the past few weeks talking about her study upper trajectory it national polls to. An Ohio is obviously need. State that is almost geared for a candidate like Warren. The democratic. Primary electorate there it is white and progressive. So just the very fact that she is now sort of at the top of the polls I think probably adds to some of her momentum there. Digits doing you know being cunning in the game there up on Harris is interesting to. That yes Sanders continues to be sort of and you night IE I know I'll catch flak for this from from cinder supporters but I do think. At least in my mind he has become a slight non entity because it is the static nature of his place in the polls and his campaign now in so. So just that sort of seen Biden and warned kind of pull away in a state like Iowa. Where you could potentially see it be good for Sanders is notable and it kind of adds to my sense that he is. Falling further away yes Ilyce stands Sanders and now go to Biden but it Nate descendants have an Iowa problem or. Problem problem. Both because he shouldn't have via our problems must he has bigger problem yes right as a Irish abuse congress Abraham so we should say. The polls for Sanders and Iowa have been. Generally fairly poor but have been all over the place right so earlier. Last week. You had two other Iowa polls to now opposed to be an animate the 16%. And 9% respectively. Before that Unita you've got 426%. But a mom apple adamant 9%. In Iowa. So in general Sanders has been. And a little bull was national numbers in Iowa. Which doesn't really make sense given that Iowa has. A lot of white progressives which should be at least bassist when he sixteen coalition. His stronger group. He again feared fairly well and caucus states obviously 2016 he almost beat Hillary there. If you doesn't sixteen. There is they get rationale for why San is underperforming in Iowa I can think and the fact that like. Frankly he has a little bit of it sell by date and that when voters are more exposed to him that they get more excited about some of their alternatives. Warren being number Monday. But let me also booed attach a little bit they're now that's similar ideologically. But. But they do both appeal to young voters -- new and kind of different you know I think Bernie is not use the fact that like. He is no longer truly the outsider he is not me freshest flavor. In the race. And you know and also separately. One interesting demographic split. The poll had Asselta poll was they looked at who you voted for it when he sixteen. And I think in their poll small sample size but literally 0%. Of Clinton went sixteen caucus goers were for Sanders this time. So if you're if you're starting went. So 4445%. Of voters nationally but pursue Anderson to when he sixteen. If you start with that and then Warren Herman who was a big chunk of that and them booted Jack Sheehan and and the Ming and even Biden because they worsen voters. In the very campus Eckstein who were voting for Clinton. Not because they were pretty low because they just didn't like Clinton for an even number of reasons and and Biden solves some of those reasons writes all the sudden. You start out with 45 and and war and fixed when he out of that damn. Moody church takes you now takes five and gain. Takes three inside and takes a not a sudden you're down in the in the low to mid teens and Mike and like. I know but like I revelers are paying more attention of the campaign. You know I don't know it's it's a very poor indicator for Sanders he has by the way he did dismisses I would director and so that maybe this recognition apartment campaign like. We need to change strategies Enders. Waiting. He dismisses I would director in addition to its New Hampshire parent and so okay. Early state take a percentage okay Sanders has a problem. Despite and have a problem to claim. So starting about August. That Biden team. And Biden himself sort of started pushing the line that they don't need to win. Iowa in order to win the primary. You know. I think that campaign. Sees. Understands that they do not do well with. What progressive liberals white liberals. So. While it wouldn't look good placing. And potentially New Hampshire. There they say this in this country in the campaign they say listen we have a ascension at southern strategy Super Tuesday strategy. The ideas that there's lots. We Ana winds you know there they wanna win South Carolina. They want to win a lot of those march 3 Super Tuesday states readers boat sin in the south things like that swept into the Biden campaign is. Definitely. Putting out there come a softening the blow of potentially losing. And they're right about that right now I mean they don't have to win Iowa. In Basilan island it's. Opera like Pacific it would already be in various front position and if they reside within their in a vulnerable position but. And our eyewitness says Iowa is saying look past love it for notable vote if America's I was should be good warrants state I don't think anyone denies that right. So she doesn't finish strongly in Iowa oats and a little bit of damage unique features like a strong second and went to Hampshire something like. If she would under from an Iowa that means like you and your best circumstances unit of the win and then you probably. In trouble but no it's absolutely. Valid. To a point now. That Iowa is a liberal and white electorate and that's not. That's not. Biden's strength. You know may December district irony Barbara than usually have a many strength. Has a problem right so what about. Comma Harris she didn't do well at all on this poll and on the one hand. What you just said about Iowa elector at. Which seemed to suggest OK it's not that much of Harris stated on the other hand. There are reports at the Harris campaign is going on Hainan island since war or what happened. Ends. So that I think. Parents. I think wants to do well in Iowa to. It proven electability point perhaps media. So. She has talked about the slot sort of scene she started off from the beginning in the summer with these attacks on Biden having sort of like. She had a profile writes this there was something that people kind of associated with Harris and as the summer has gone that's sort of faded. And while people you know wanting black voters definitely are considering her as well except what may be right there top two or three candidates. She kinda needs to do well in like these white states are states where she could be media like a Warren alternative kind of like. Establishment but like a little progressive. It tuned to thing's and and she basically needs to. I think it like he did get that moment and get that electability moment. Does it noting as Alec electability is topic yeah yeah there's circular in this hired him at. Does does. That the Harris campaign. Going all in on Iowa. Went for whatever that means. Mean she's trying to position number sophomore as a warrant alternative rather than upon now turn I think for the op I think there's an airport around it and again. You know my priors that campaigns make lots of mistakes and so and so we shouldn't trying to rationalize or other than maybe the answer is that that are. They're struggling in their and their kind of cresting for new ideas. But like. Some of the pre erratic kind of says more I think she thinks that. Biden is vulnerable there right in Iowa and that may be if the partly is okay. Biden struggles and I only it's like 13% or something. Moderates panic they say it's going to be Warren or Sanders. And Biden's not to the task right therefore they rally around Harris as the alternative. Two Warren or maybe Sanders reunite maybe. I don't know and a lot of that an a lot of the moderates that need is talking about B black voters right so if if if Biden inherits have been competing all summer basically for like Congressional Black Caucus endorsements which is a little bit of an indicator of like. You know include the black vote in certain important states might be leaning towards. I think she is kind of going after Biden's. Lunch because she's proving maybe she'd she'd prove too if it's black voters are. Largely concerned with electability or moderate voters in the Democratic Party are largely is concerned with electability and they back Biden because of that. If Harris proves that she can win in the state like Iowa than they'd say okay she's a good alternative to Joseph Biden for me because she's she's proven. You know I like that she's prosecutorial. And she's proven to me that she can compete. Against all of these other like high profile people Ayman I'm gonna go far and that and that and then that does wealth her starting in. Late February my. Arched and she doesn't need to. Win Iowa product as part. She's doing poorly enough for a like if she'd acquired third or sect and are OK so let's say let's say Iowa is like. Warren she she she is a really strong night war in 33. Good to catch. Sixteen. Sanders' fourteen Harris thirteen. Bite and twelve something like that right. What's that result and I think it results in Elizabeth Warren win the nomination. And like every like minerals being in trouble if she dominates to that degree is on its debt degree probably means that like. She's doing fine chewing to savor of the vote is dominating. For I was standards we can it's a woman with 20% of when he five. And also your elders are fifty there's not a clear sent him Placer would detect the second place where he might not. I don't know well I'm trying to like to give like. Which scenario. Results in in a per from Harris winning Iowa results her kind of winning the nomination where she's I don't know. Okay will RM thirty. Bernie twining. Harris. Six team and whatever whatever whatever. Yet. But can happen I mean there are light there are like some moderates and Democratic Party outside of states like Iowa may be roughly half the party. You know and I mean again when big question here which the Iowa poll from shelter compels us what happens if Warren. Does much better than Bernie in Iowa kind of regardless of where the control to the other candidates right. You know deceived him for New Hampshire presumably yes. We don't know very by the much that we don't know by the way very much about what's going on in New Hampshire. What about the other candidates as there anything in that. To. Say anything about any of the other people virtually non. I think he should note that someone like Cory Booker came in at 3% in the cells are poll tied with Klobuchar at 3%. His campaign. Over the weekend basically said we need money or else we're gonna have to drop out. I like I think the end of the month something like that. So you if you are starting to see now I don't actually I don't totally by fifth day that they would do that necessarily acting. That's Betsy it's certainly aid the body. Moved from strength. But I think that they probably want some some money at them. And and that's a degree do it but like. For certain candidates it's just it's it's like O Rourke and Booker. I think in those early states. Kind of wanna say listen we have great we have great ground game were really good at retail politics but they're also not popping in the polls in the states and that's of. Get in some ways. The absence of news is news so there was an earlier poll Lester they had Klobuchar at 8% and Iowa. She's a 3% and Sulzer polls -- 8% muscle to polls well right then you have a whole sort of stories. Justifiably or not. His poll are subject to sampling error about like. Clue blue Serge. Go. Club pat that's a bar code which urge. That's gotten more Covert. Recently. And it seems that in America. Act that's the story exactly as it is has pretty good debate performance has apparently meant squat I mean maybe I don't. A restless week like our people just denying the obvious that like. Maybe it's just Warren Biden which is the third review of Clinton Obama and Clinton Sanders ballots were in Biden they kind of each can represent roughly half the party and you're gonna see. This two person tango again the seltzer poll also found that just one in five. Likely Democratic Caucus goers say their minds are made up suggesting. 63%. So they can still be persuaded to sporting different cabinet. And where OK we're in September. There's certainly I think. This is bad news for a lot of candidates via but that's fair that's a like a very interesting nugget that I think. Probably won't take away from from a lot of the stories but the poll. No went ahead on time that we had on all time in terms of light. How early it is and how polls have them art from Aaron house of changes might. Which there right now if Buddha judge were to win Iowa. I think it would be an upset. Given where we are now but it wouldn't be shocking like he's he's now married and he's eases yet he's got a told me there and regionalism keys from your placed a yes you know inch. Yet we should probably talk more about the second choice numbers does those. Further the east. Warrants lead and are never held for any candidate apart from war and frankly so like that. That. Increases her Iowa and damage will the second choice and the nom and the like who are you considering questions why aren't always does better than ever announcements. And I am a let's leave it there thinking me. Thank you mica for hosting you're welcome. Thank you cleaner thanks Mike you're Wacom. My name is Micah Colin Tony chow is in the control room are in term district Arlo you can get pocked with cuts by emailing. Podcasts at 538 dot com you can also of course tweeted offs if you're fan of the show leave us a rating or view and the apple podcast store. Please do that it actually helps a lot you can separate a post that was. Or just tell from the path and tell him about. Thanks for listening and. Oh.

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