FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: How the Iran conflict could affect the 2020 electio

In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses how the current conflict or any further escalation with Iran could reshape the dynamics of the 2020 election.
47:58 | 01/07/20

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Transcript for FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: How the Iran conflict could affect the 2020 electio
Hello and welcome to the fact that the politics I can. I'm do Andrea I hope everyone in during the holidays are record podcast episodes we are very much back to the current recycle this week. Last Thursday the Pentagon announced that the United States hailed the bronze major general consents to a money at the direction of the president in an air strike in Iraq. Iran has vowed retaliation and we are now waiting to see what form will. Elections are focused not foreign policies were gonna talk about how the current conflict or any further escalation could reshape the dynamics of the 28 election. And here is me to do that back from vacation our editor in chief and it's over from the callon. I'll have you know I am an expert in foreign power in Iran in politics. As of about three days. There are people. Equally pressing question did you find any salads in Spain. So it's really attack but we have very good food. Sounds. All to hear of us is our our audience was very curious after you said you didn't expect of sound and Spain and actually. I mean we didn't go looking for silent spring need a lot of fish lot of fast attack. All clear that's it's in a politics at a crime while on her on it and managing editor Mecca current Harry and America. And he sounds on your vacation and it yeah. Nate the 1000. I'm like honestly I don't Needham yeah really yen Coleman. You know it's been a while also did this has been for all of us. I. Now I miss you. I'm misty to Micah. Eyewitness that was ruining medication in this model. Yeah which. Will consider the vacation and it is at its. And so any right. Let's talk about the conflict rid Iran as I mentioned. The US drone killed Constance or money last week he was the head of Iran's revolutionary coups forest for two decades a paramilitary organization. And he was arguably the second most powerful military official in the country. The air strike also killed nine other people including deputy commander of a rocks popular mobilization. Popular mobilization forces Abu Madi I'll move on this so. We have often mentioned on this podcast that American voters are not particularly return to foreign policy. What does it take for international politics to the clips domestic issues in an election and refocus voters' attention. Does where things stand right now rise to that level. I think Iran. I think it conflict with Iran. Rises to the level. Perhaps taking precedence in or or appeasing. That the prominence of foreign policy an election in part because of the United States history with Iran which obviously dates back to. Sort of and in. Active involvement by day the CIA with the over you know with the shock. And then. RBC the American hostage crisis in Tehran. And and going into sort of the entangled in politics frankly of the of the Persian gulf right the shifting alliances. Of or that the tangled alliances of Saudi and Iran and let. Copter and the UAE public. Oil. So this is all super important to. The world economy to. A regent is. Highly. Flammable. And also to American's. Involvement in Middle Eastern wars is obviously a huge. Emotional Specter among the electorate I mean. I think it's it doesn't take much to have look at to have a presidential candidate candidates. Be talking about an ongoing conflict with. You know what we once and still do label kind of as part of the axis of the evil right that was that the George W. Bush wing framing it. I'm so I think this is a big deal. And a make and they do you see dozens of pending kind of the dynamics of that when it running election. Not yet but it feels like it has the potential to depending on how it developed Shirley. I think already you're seeing it breakthrough in a way that a farm policy stores cut. Upending is obviously a high bar right yeah. And I guess we should talk about a little bit to what extent it is an all or not in question in terms of foreign policy and domestic electoral politics yes. But this definitely you know it's it's scary and it doesn't feel like it has the potential to overwhelm things. The one Ganassi to which is you know and it was joking that this earlier you know at ruining your Twitter feed becomes. A Middle East expert when something happens in the Middle East and I don't purport to be up to be one of those people. I did live in the region for a couple of years. But what I will say that I find. A little bit you know we're talking about incidents that could affect an election. Often talked during twin sixteen a particular. About terrorists tax write things that could be. Strictly a tragic October surprises things that can really up and dynamics. In the twin sixteen election trumps Muslim man came on the heels. Of domestic crisis inspired attack in California. And one of the hallmarks of of the Iranian regime and the goods force that its or money. Ran right is that they sometimes. Pair with groups that are. Quicker more at I'll terrorist organization's right to the idea that like. Yes the American military is much more powerful in the Iran in military and large is very true but I also think public places were Americans. Travel freely or have up until. A week via. Are all of a sudden kind of yanks spots you know. So that's I think that is is kind of this this. This escalation that I see is the picture question mark of what what happens a lot of unknown element a lot of unknown and terms of how things out of retaliation. Ney what's your Dierker. Yeah I know I think I think he Copeland way to say winds of public get. Interest is when there's some element of fear. Involved. Certainly there's an element of American troops being. Deployed which where a long way away from. You know I mean this. Attack was an characterize it right the strike. The guy does that mean capacities and yeah just just from like semantics point of view as a journalist. I'm closing as an assassination I don't think we due our listeners or readers any favors by saying like. I'd ID so I think I did what. It is up improper and I mean I think there is some. Dispute over whether if it's in a war. The and he isn't enemy combatant. That's what Padilla and and that's for the Obama administration and for years for its it was part of ongoing. Some why doesn't Obama just incredibly controversial bright for that its factories of. Again I would say there's an artifice of saying. Brown or all the time everywhere where and therefore. I just feel like at different. Ages recently I think there's certain difference my point of view on it it is. If we can't see it looking I'm not here to hold the US government. Do you need more readers aren't well yes there were like later it's I heard assassination or at war right you can't. But one of those two things has to be through media happy Monday at Monday. How Monday for money and point one actual back from vacation Busch. Race. But this is not a case for you sigh. As in the case of bin Laden or something you do not see like people. Characterize it or the needs me to characterize it as we just. Off the terrorist leader right. It got a different reaction I think people I'm me I think you go poll. Had reaction evenly split you know third approve a third disapprove and a third aren't sure yet. Which is not typically. The reaction you'd get if you had killed some. Terrorist leader something so there is like already signs the some degree of trepidation. Via. To me sorry count it to me dad is the big question here it is. It very hard to anticipate how the public will respond to this in particular if it escalated and escalates. Sorry. And the big question I think is to what extent dissed from. Because of his behavior because of its history. Not get the benefit of the doubt from a section of Americans and I don't just mean Democrats. There's kind of you know that the B president. Has some advantages. When sort of wielding the instruments of farm the opposite sell the office is yet pub in terms of domestic political affairs right. The numbers may just cited data at this and I think we could have anticipated this to some extent but there is a question to what I wonder. Whether. There Rea some Americans who view this. Not as trump acting that the decisively but as is this just a mess from created. You know or some combination of the. The thing that I it's. Interested in over the weekend is that watch kind of that discourse unfold. The obvious parallel here it is Adam. Org apparel that people are coming to is the Iraq War right in the way that the Iraq War. Seoul. Spying repeating sort of crass but we are wrecked the weight it. Patriotism was kind of meat partisan to him the ops. You know full disclosure I was a teenager in high school into the war solely. I was paying attention not only but I do remember that at this very powerful cultural force and so there a lot of people saying. Essentially this is how war is sole right it's in it's that it's essentially the rally around the flag. Right that this is how people keen moment. And my question about that it is. Is that too fassel comparison for the times and recently I mean. I kept seeing the EP re tweeting or making it a news story that rose McAllen who. Is that actors with as far as I know no foreign policy experience. Like I apologize like I'm sorry that we're attacking Iran and look for obviously kind of a weird thing EP BT promoting. But it's an interesting liberal sentiment that I do think was there wasn't under Crittenton extreme of Resnick Allen. But like I can't believe trump is doing this. What are we getting in Q in various degrees Rhode Island beings like the stupidest kind of version of that but one that exists on Twitter. To the smarter takes which were. Sola Miami was. A malevolent actor but obviously it's huge escalation what it's trump doing. None of our allies are with us is this just like the Iraq War minus any. Coalition of the Willing to bring access via an early shots terminology and I was pretty solidly the view from the candor I. In the democratic crime so much so to go back to is my question is. The Iraq War. Necessarily the best comparison because we do they live in more Hartley I have a hard time seeing the rally around the flag effect from. A 50% of the country. Yet both Claire and Mike are you brought up this rally around the flag theory that basically says remnants of an international. Crisis or war that the president sees their approval coop I wanna kind of talk probably about the risks here for president trial. Both ranging from a rally around the flag a fact which would be. You know. It's crass but like a positive effect of this on his unit of domestic political standing. To some of the downsides of this potentially four track so let's start with the rally around the flag does it seem. Like where in a situation today where the American public is willing to get on board we have the president. In a conflict with Iran or things different than they might have been for for bush even when the public really. You did see his approval co op around the Iraq invasion and and. And nine elevenths so I think things are clearly different now. Deem more things escalate in a conflict. The more. I think we will have to take less for granted about how much those differences. Will affect the reaction M among Americans which is to say that. I don't think we should rule Al if something really extreme. Develops. The hike partisan lines breaking ground for example I am. Now that I mean what any predictions amid the floor and always been you know we'd what do you mean by something extreme like say. Ron Ron's response to. This by attacking American citizens and not military exactly right you hate to get into it but yet if there's. If there's a very. Right now in the story there is there are. Democrats and Republicans actually both sides are saying what are we doing here what's gone on here and actually the Brighton or. This is the right move at the wrong time like now or it's just a muddled picture right. If there's a development in extreme development like an act. That is not model that is crystal clear that night you know I wouldn't want to predict what happened right but at the status as a starting assumption. I think we'd have to say. Okay partisanship is stronger now that would make it less likely the and you rally round. I think there's evidence for that. You know we saw rally around a fire that. Win bin Laden was killed for Obama but it wasn't that well we we weren't. Attacked here at least nine a way that most Americans we consider an attack although I ran had been escalating in various ways right and that's when. Big difference some of the differences the lack of trust and trumpet their differences like the fatigued after Iraq and Afghanistan. And you know for many years like. People have interpretations and polls. About further foreign entanglements periods which the mentally. East to me that's the most interesting element in some ways that this trump. Trump deciding to suit to escalating and to assess Neitzel Amani is that. He campaigned on here. Getting out of the Middle East and no more wars and and what I think has been so you know we've watched the democratic candidates in one form or another say that myth term. Bernie Sanders. I think has is always incredibly attuned to. It is he does us in debates and he did this in his response to this attack he'll say. This was Trump's promise he is breaking his promise witness and I will say that I think like Sanders has the best cents for. The acts like like going back to 2016 and Purdue replaying the tape and saying remember this he did right like he went against his promised. I get I guess I think that. Yes trump campaign and when he sixteen. In part on a more isolationist. Foreign policy. And in particular. Time being less willing Ellie about wielding American. Hillary the hawk Donald ignored the point out exactly right them. I don't love by the way I don't. She's I love Grossman gallons. Take out Al statement. Are out to Gartner. It it oh. That so okay so yes some campaign on that. Do I think those stances played like that calls all role in his support in the wade that like immigration. Positions did not really. So I wonder if trump officer and is advocating. A realty. Interventionist. Foreign policy I wonder we would see the public opinion sort of revert back to. Like post Iraq War. Like immediate post in Iraq invasion. Summer program where Democrats are are split or against or maybe really against Republicans our board ERM and boarded you to think. On the question of can president trumps through the force of partisanship and his personality bring Republicans along for the ride. After there's been significant opposition to foreign intervention post Iraq War. I don't know I think it's a little bit about Klein I mean I think. You know bush. Was incredibly unpopular when he left office in part because. Of the of the financial cost of getting into a war in the Middle East that conservatives didn't like the rate in addition to the fact that like. You know I think the emotional facts of seeing essentially like. Certain classes in America being the ones who serve in the military and suffer the effects and suffer the effects he'll be a crisis and ripped right there's like. If you're downing affects of being at war for twenty years. And it eating. A particular class of American who bears the brunt of that and took that to me like it's in to trump isn't too silly. Fiscal conservatives were pissed off at bush having gotten to the Iraq War. But I also think like trump conservatives are pissed off at foreign interventions. Passions had pissed off ticked off at for an intervention because. It's it's an emotional fact why are we sending all these peoples of the Middle East. I don't I think like trump can probably. Bring along a certain amount of the Republican base but I do think it's an uphill climb because we've had twenty years of what's a lot of people in politics being against. Interventionist wars I mean Obama. Sort of you know if you read a lot of like Samantha Power critiques greatly. Didn't. It involves where some people thought he should have in Syria for instance right in like in sort of what people saw us humanitarian crises in part because. Obama ran on I didn't vote for the war in Iraq I didn't vote for these wars in the Middle East I'm here to get you out like that has been. For the past decade of American politics let's get out of the Middle East has been the campaign line and then presidents have of course these reality of well if we pull out. Mark and what's gonna happen and I think we saw the affect of access. Nick what are you've entered Kenya bring relic of the national weather for the right at this point. I mean he's had trouble. Moving public in his favor on much of anything. Which is probably true for presence in general these days I think I mean look if you wanna be. Kinda gross about a I mean if flights if like we were to be attacked. By Iran in a way that you know was considered terrorist tack or something that was very shocking then that might increase support. Increase support for you know further escalation. Pat summit this summer that hasn't even Yan right. Beirut. Her on an eclectic there's like lots of passes says I don't think we're being know I'm yeah it's. I mean I don't know that I ran. Wants war race of the kinda have this weird. Imperative ready have to show they're tough but we and they like kind of Wendy's and it's like and maybe not super high profile. I don't know so we've been talking about some potential. Reasons that trump may not be able to bring public opinion along with him. Some potential downside super dose escalation. Maybe let's talk about some possible upsides and means so. Kind of since president trump himself prodded up back in 2011. Get our trump said that. He expected President Obama to start a war with Iran in order to win. Re election palm. Dinner and he said it invidious he sat on tweets repeatedly. Obviously Obama didn't do that but you know again since president trump brought it up. Does that seem like a wise political strategy to start a war to win re election. The thing we should question morally but any. Excuse me. That's a different part. To go back to all the reasons. Why awards ultimately Easter. Mate. So. That's my Nagano and I and I I agree I I think that I think. Selling a war particularly award McAleese is harder now that was because people were burned pirate act were burned by other I I. I wonder if it's not quite as a perilous. Has anything give in the years that I asked them right. Let's call to start a war if your perceive that starting a war. Mighty. My guess would be that will certainly not help you politically and I think that's part trumps problem here is. The storyline is a little model right. When trump. Responded. For the when he launched missiles against Syria after Syria. After this or him president used chemical weapons and if he was roundly sort of lauded for that response right that is the case here that dent the kind of the particulars are a bit more. For the in question right. I say it was preemptive but the details about what kind of attack was expected on American interests have not been forthcoming and this is someone who has been involved in this stuff including attacks on American interests for years in your news. And and so. And that and that makes it hard for Tampa let's talk OK is would help trump elect orally. To be involved in a military conflict. That's perceived to more. I am. Favorably in the US and Edwards ticket but compact wars before but say there that say there is an attack. That shocking on US so ago that that. It is viewed by the American people as it clearer justification for our military action which I help them locked orally. Possibly I think even then trump has this issue. Up trust. Do Americans. Do use. Independents do certainly Democrats I think will be a tough to impossible sell but I you know. Yet it's it's kind of an uncomfortable thing to talk about because we are talking about. Lightly lit there's two million. Propose to sit this one is let's just talk an Alley at the six swing states that we ultimately care. Trump's actions in the past couple of days. How'd those play with a six swing states around right now I kind of thing I like. Not like I could see somewhat reluctant trumpeter acting like this guy what's he getting near. If there's if there's attack where US citizens here or it or or. A leader of government official whatever it is it is killed. It easier for me deceive yeah that a fact and I think it's. You know we eat your listening to us in this podcast kind of he'll squeeze mansion it's a sentiment cop thing to talk about but like. This is almost just like the real Pollack T get it right that this all this is like what. This is what we saw in. In the Iraq War right is that is that. From 2001 to march 2003. Through its atomic 2001 to march 2003 when invasion of Iraq happened I think that's right. We migrated country used we side justifications happened in the news but it was all based on this emotional thing of we have been attacked and so I think that's the power that's. Well I'm and supporting. Those military action and was used as a political cordial. And house elections see Hillary Clinton and presidential election yet here Micah you're mentioning that trump. Is beginning from a position where Americans don't necessarily trust him. TVD maybe you tell me if independents due trust him on foreign policy and kind of being a commander in chief. But can you get into the details a little bit more. How like where to where the lines drawn as it like Democrats trust among Republicans do or is it works on foreign policy I mean that's that's that's not a bad starting point as armistice shoes I mean it goes back to kind of went missing earlier about trump has tried so laws and a lot of move in public opinion as Nate said maybe that would be true for any president I do you think that an appalling there's that's now. From because his behaviors in. Him because his rhetoric has been. Kind of all over the place at times starts with the disadvantage relative tier African president in terms. Selling the public. And I am. And Annie well maybe not anything but I think nets. Now that the particulars matter right as we've been thing along how this developed really will have a huge effect on how it plays out. Orally. I just think bike. Whatever the electron temptress trump just has a marginal disadvantage. But and that. Because. But again the vicuna he didn't you know that. There was a lot of coverage for example about trump said. He would attack. Cultural sites with a camera who. And you know a lot of I saw a lot of media coverage it's like that would be a war crime. You know if that's the argument people are having. Then act of Tennessee trump getting the better of it you know with like trump is talking about killing terrorists and and the media amounting it's right or wrong I'm this thing. If if the public perceives. Trumps opponents as worried about cultural sites. Yeah what I mean like I think I think. It's it's an easy way to paint. Soft the. Yet apparently we poured Debra McKay the president galloping plays into that to your right yes exactly there's a lot of I might even think it's intentional but he does have this knack for kinda like right I think finding the soft spots I think what. Like what all these things come back to you is public. Am. T use the language of the twentieth century. It's. Kia masculine station or the mock show in this. All coming into play right you're a wimp on not and like that's kind of how a lot of the stuff in politics happens. Is. People politicians get afraid of seeming would be. And that night I wish you were more complicated than that but it's kind of not an idea if there and I do you think like to Mike is point. It really plays into Trump's strength switches. As we all know. Calling people could be our. In in crass or ways or whatever but I think that's. And I think that's powerful with American power. And the sense of American exceptional as an is attached to that oh here with the. And a although I mean on the flip side here as you mentioned in part Micah. The Gwynn we've seen polling like Howell president from TO win an international crisis how. Dinner does he'd have the government to be commander in chief. He is starting from about one of his weaker position right that has been it was a message that Hillary Clinton talking about for all of 2016. But it seems to looking at the polling here. Be something that has stock to a certain degree you know you have 24% of Americans saying he would be very good at dealing with an eastern right. Whereas on the flip side you have a large majority saying he would to a very poor job dealing with an international crisis yeah so we will we will see how this all plays out and of course. You know the closer it gets to you kind of patriotic emotional -- issues you're talking about you can. Imagine that changing but in the Smart well and also it just it just a saying out loud. If this plays out and it's viewed as being handled really well. Then because he's so that on these numbers to stars. Jack could have a huge benefit politically to drop because then all of a sudden and it site. This is like okay he has been criticized as a set from the beginning how will this. This erratic parts then handle the country in a moment of true crisis right. If he's perceived that's handling it well valves and and it parent with a good economy and then you know yes yeah. Number it's absolutely trip we've already seen Vick contenders for the democratic nomination talking about president crowns actions with regards to. Iran and either stressing their foreign policy credentials or talking about the risks of war on the campaign trail. So let's get a little bit more specific. How will you know of this current conflict in any possible escalation. Play into the strengths and weaknesses of the top contenders were looking. Yeah. Yeah I mean so the simplest. Take. Is that Biden is seen as by far. The most with Scania on foreign policy. That voters are not going to be terribly interest in. In pursing the details than they don't know that much about it and so therefore. They would tend to result debates in Biden Seaver by the way when I think that helps I think. Biden and maybe also burning. Is effective this is going to take attention away from. The campaign and therefore if they're fewer new cycles of Palestine forties somewhat self fulfilling media's searches are bounces and so their work. If you're one of the for minors and they are I think particularly in order now Biden Bernie went to. And then it gap between two and three. I think you pretty tapped the Medina about in Iran but year by year I think OK with the fact that like. We're not having mini campaign cycles about like all the latest Sulzer pole winners here is up. Going on elsewhere. Like I should say to you know. Bernie clearly has the most. Clearly articulated position right earth like this this adds an assassination of nervous is doing this. I always sort of insult these wars is the guys already close vote foray so like there is clarity. In birdies message I think I'm. The Ayers a little bit of a fine line between like. You know some of the kind of old school. Kind of critique of like lefties who are too weak on foreign policy and stuff like I think Bernie Haston. Be a little area that although he does every angle that I think is maybe more persuasive. Two. Devoted to run offense just reminding people that Joseph Biden. Voted for the Iraq War even though Biden kind of weirdly. Kind of denies it I mean it's you know what's part of the rest record we know how we voted right. And does that really given a great response to a people who care that much but it does make that. More relevant so are rising Bernie and say. Focus on. And Biden's vote. In Iraq and other places and don't necessarily. Trying to to. Woke about how you describe the attack and so forth is that that I think is not you know. Like a lot of things birdies an appeal to his base but we still face this problem for brain like he's going to be on 18% is now at some point and so. As a but he rejected the next 5% to 10%. In that Dodi. In the democratic primary between. This means you should vote for the person with the most foreign policy experience or this means you should vote for the person who won't bring us into a never ending war is. Which camp Wentz. I'm I think it'll come down to. Our all. How validated. The from actions. Are seen the public more legitimacy. Terrorists Grimes with. The more I think foreign policy. Trust. You know the candidate five and who has more foreign policy experience and therefore I'm. Competence from people the more that's invent and advances the more Trump's actions are seen ads. As modeled or as. You know it's self created crisis. Am. Then I think that just just hear more pure anti comp anti intervention message. Will will win now right. I mean I think now Democrats were shy about. Criticized pretty harsh statements you know I mean there's kind of cement just about like. You caught assassination or not. Do you say it first phase is a really bad guy here in right apparently seemed commandos of war effort kind of say hey is really bad guy but this is terrible that we did this in this way right. That was like you know that's where I would I want to fight migrant if I were. Sanders are born or something right. But yeah they were like pretty. And hedged. I guess by name was was. But yet item wasn't all that he threw a match entered tinderbox I kind of the rate you described it. I testing a slight advantage to Biden although. I think it's a hard questioning answer because I I don't think C Anders has like. In the age of trump. Beating. Saying trump didn't keep his promise I'm here to keep you out of Middle Eastern wars which is what trump promised to do that's a powerful line Nia on the other hand. I do think the fact that like this. Attack. Has such a complicated. The fact in the international community right it's it's a Ron no longer holding to the nuclear deal it's the potential for all of these attacks it's. Lack of stability in. Lebanon and Saudi electors like all over it's all these are really complicated things where. Biden could make this case public hates super complicated I know all these people. I was part of all these things you should probably put me in reg it's his it goes back to his. Steady at that till like you may not love me the most but I'm the best guy for the job right now. Ten and specifically CNN pulled us in November and asked which of the democratic contenders do you most trust on foreign policy. 48% said I it and 14% said board suggests comparing terrorists here and the voters are pretty clear on who they see a stronger until. And we should take that lasts. Democratic primary. Sanders please let hugely and for having no you know no real formed policy obviously is running against a former secretary stay. But I think he certainly done. A lot in the last four years to. Lecture his staff in the charges. These knowledge on the but I still think like his looked in my mind and inform policy the thing that comes to nineties. Rick and more her. A new stance on Israel you know this incident in the Democratic Party that still kind of controversial which is more critical. Of Israel but that's the thing comes to mind me for policy Ernie not. My stance on the Iran nuclear rover just anti interventionist and current DA the united. By a at all I think it was in the New York Times had an article about. Booted judgment we judge campaign playing out is experience in the military. As a potential advantage now that farm policy has become a figure so that subject to not only. By the way not only was there that Cingular article but also in a in that article about how all the candidates were democratic in its respond to attack. The attack they talked about included epic and event. Bring up his military service and saying in there. Article mr. good judge who referred several times to his own service in the military like it's kind of media did a little bit of like maybe I'm reading it with. Bias but that seems to be a bit kind of like. Someone pointing out the sort of Blake. Slut absurd is the wrong word but like a 37 your 38 Euro their seven year old guy. Trying to. Compare his time the military to Joseph Biden's time as vice president is an interesting. I mean. It's this I think there is a difference between. Being a foreign policy expert and operated in on the high levels of diplomatic circles and. No absolutely. Okay that there are two separate issues here there's like what what is actually good and useful experience. And what does the public is out and certainly. How things actually served in them out Perry can't help but be. Really useful and valuable experience peace committee trimming right by you he's better off with that experience and without right by us but. Is that making people think about like. Is the mayor's South Bend, Indiana that's the thing that site is I agreed attempted bank. If if it's going to be anything would be an advantage. And I I certainly think. In like the real world and actually is. An advantage program does the prefectural outspent but. But ot my guess would be that it's completely outweighed by the fact that he's like a 37 year old guys. News from the mayor this. He can late equally extremely valid claim to the emotional stuff that we're talking about before right witches. D.'s warriors are he's of the generation and he had served. Frankly outside the typical class system of military yeah right like the people who fight America's wars are generally not. The clap the educational attention the session economic class appeal rejected its rights of heat he lays claim to that. About BE and a valid way and I think that is powerful but I do you think I'm thinking about a debate stage the next debate stage. Where Biden and it judge. Biden kind of affable Lee. Doings you know he does is being re actively laughs while he conflict. Things like I helped negotiate the nuclear deal that trouble wrapped up its its Reagan its old Reagan line. I will hold my opponent's youth and inexperience against. The funny thing is though is I actually think like okay that exchange when impact friends. I I I think put it it will probably to a canyon because he will be here today. I. His problem is really anybody who's watched with them off am. Or her oral to people who are watcher or all the people are much right. It's really just more of the likeness superficial image. Washington with years of experience it's like it's it's it's may be an mate so maybe this is nothing where. This story and Mort stays at the center of the political opposites does it does it help. Us wagered less in age as a potential. Trip factor for by him you know. And by the way I will say. Foreign policy and in particular. American military interventions RI do you think a place for Biden feels like vocational about his decision to run for president this time around. What like when I have seen him on the trail the times when he truly like. Like its is Ira shop is win he is talking about. America's interventions he you know over the summer he am he was depressed skakel. He pulled out like a piece of paper and he was like I get the number of American troops. Who look like casualties and deaths every single morning in a briefing right like this is a thing I care about. And it was this moment where like you know candidates and answering questions kind of have there's like a certain you can tell it that's the talking pointers putting out there. This was the moment when he was very very light. Animated manner and so I do think that this particular issue is. His just like his resume is his strength but two I think it's issue where he public feels like. This is the reason I'm running right is currently affect youth for her if I'm gonna be like a bridge between trump and whatever comes after trump. This is why Peter Wright is the experience is the kind of like being the band aid or. The trouble that sorry to throw back the other. Some attention all. Again just crosses but the other potential advantage partner as is. Part of what a lot of people connected and Biden is he has led a life that has been Mike just like in this horrible way marked by tragedy. You know it it especially in terms of his family. And so he he. Is merely. An and I think that genuine way really good at connecting with people. When there is a tragedy. Up you know what I'm a public that tragedy to write. And kind of you know that more emotional part of politics. So soon when you're winner amass or that had life or death. Stakes. That can't help but yet they useful tool offers. And just out of. A little more kind of details to the numbers I did before from this CNN poll in November. You know repeat Bridget is that 6% of people saying that they trust the most on foreign policy with Elizabeth Warren and 11% and foreign policy. Was the one area amongst topics like the economy health care climate crisis immigration gun policy. Work Joseph Biden is head and shoulders above everyone else his lead on Sanders it is 34 points whereas. You know it's in the single digits in pretty much every other. Category in this poll so. Clearly voters see four received by it and in a different kind of feel almost when compared to camp foreign policy. It is possible about it way to thank. That's the escalates. Dan you know yeah I think it'd come. I mean we know how quickly things move off the new site right impeachment. That's what's holding impeachment charges almost been forgotten about it seems like they're just in eaten in additional. What was impeachable. What is it with these I think tough assignment were nearing the end of the podcast. What were you gonna like. Obvious that things that can develop their PBS stations there can be. Installations there can be. For their tax by the US for their tax by Iran that can be third parties that get involved. If we get to a point where bush is giving a speech. At the scene of the union. I was live Rick. Have a deliberate Freddy's let if current business in the union saying okay. You know yellow cake in Niger Elvis stuff and we have to like. Mount a force to actually having. Invasion of Iran right it's a very different. Political. Circumstance and if you if you just kind of have this happen in that Americans have heightened. Fear do you think Biden I'm on Iraq or will prompt or is it just. It's night rounds on Twitter right now that Biden. Basically suggested that he opposed the war. Is that dom shouldn't just be at night. Yeah I don't I didn't Israeli and guess spines ahead announced who we to question him but like to meet with seem like it be great opportunity for Biden to. Today not be the stubborn. Health announcer recently Earl. An. And you like yeah I you know that was one of the biggest mistakes of my career and I learned from it mimics even more trepidation I don't think you. Politician and politicians senators who voted for sport has really figured out 08 to properly Hillary plan. I thought she did that fop like. It's vote it still looked at may be marked to do it if your amendment here man. Don't you just Freeman has been aiming. Being manipulated by these clip and it's like why would you say anything else and I do. I think it probably also this. I'm sure that Biden will course correct. But I think there's this natural human instinct of defensiveness. Via a Blake. Will you understand your position I was in and maybe even articulate that. Well and also it's. Canvases decision that led to. A war and many many many hundreds of thousands of deaths right. And can't you if Theres a through line you can brother. Thing but there's not it's not just this is a case where you're not just talking about. A public auction now or public justification. For people who were involved in this on either side gas you have you have an inner. Rationale on inner justification. Which I imagine it would make trip that's more likely. Are well as. Name mentioned this could escalate this to de escalate we obviously don't know what's gonna happen next we're going to be tracking it here on the podcast. That's it for today thank you Nate. And to get them to declare. That you Micah. Q we have a live show coming up next week on January 16 in Washington DC. Head over to 530 dot com slash live to get tickets and he tells them it's in every front yard mean. Program I'm on a calendar. My name is Gail and drew. Tony Chiao is in the control room you can get in touch by emailing us at pod cast at 530 dot com you can also of course greeted us with questions or comments. If you're a fan of the show leave as a rating or review and apple podcast store or tells him and about us. Thanks for listening and sees. Yeah. Yeah.

This transcript has been automatically generated and may not be 100% accurate.

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