Transcript for FiveThirtyEight: Previewing the first presidential debate
So Nate how do you do. In general watch debates what are you looking for and then I guess maybe this one specifically. I mean in the primary basis trying to like make fun of people. I know it's actually it's very very very hard to cover general election debates I think. It looked really Smart 2012 if you always guess nothing will affect the polls this year that hasn't been. Such good guess the reason why is pretty simple which is that you have two or three times more. Effectively undecided voters and you had. You have a much bigger pool of people who. Really dislike both candidates they're not sure how to reconcile that choice one think Clinton people and talk about focus much on on Trump's performance but. Clinton doesn't have that much time. Where she is kind of out in front of people in. And unfiltered way when you have the convention. And they had kind in their message. Which they are the plan for an advance and not evidence flowed news events that was a very successful event. OK so arm on the debates themselves. Perry set the stage historically a little bit June debates tend to matter. I mean. Usually the races in close enough so that even movement that we see during them doesn't really matter but I would argue. There's one or Rio recent election where the debates clearly. In my opinion may have changed the race around now with some 2000. Al Gore did not perform particularly well during those debates. He was leading in most of the polls although with the tightening race you know because of the sanctions kind of parts pick apart. But we do know after the debates he wise trailing and then. The Sunni side. This is when he side this is when they forced him down a watch us and now and then he became much more energetic and any this identical to bush. And you know trying to ask my question that no one in the audience and I gosh are included is talking about and push kinda just. Looked at him and game and I sold nodding kept on talking. So I think earlier you said you know what if trump doesn't see any increase he would if he jest but he just asks acts like a normal Republican. I think taxes I think that's a false premise because he's not a normal Republican he he clearly he literally has no this is just a straight up straight face debate. Trump you mean watch a television interview with trump. Where someone falls upon question he literally can't say anything so if your if you're doing it to beaver and pure substance I really think there's no. There's no way that Clinton doesn't do about it.
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