Transcript for FiveThirtyEight: Fifth Republican debate preview
Tonight for the first time in more than a month there's a Republican debate it's in Las Vegas. Which it could be there but that's is that we're gonna randomized a little bit how we do are going to be previews what I have here is nine. Playing cards actually business cards. The had a name and he can on the main stage he has been picked at random might be someone born when this one exciting and tell me what would you want to accomplish. If you are going to be since nine year this person so take one who do you get. Neat so probably outside but I got case of course all the anger management I am yeah. I don't know I I I think the key for case has not come off as a jerk. And so aunt time republic and then seeming. July and taking conservative orthodoxy of the Republican Party just needs to come across some nice guy. His unfavorable ratings have risen tremendously and I think part B costs it's come off as that your. Yet he's really only been in the spotlight in these debates has not been very much to help themselves yet. Claire let's go print more interesting advice for you. I'm John try. Trump card. Let me if I am Donald Trump I'm just so excited. To during a raid I think I'm just acting camps on the attack. The whole the whole way through I'm a little worried about cruise. I feel him breathing down my neck a little bent and he seems a little bit. You know on ruffled by things Kris does not has ruffled by. Pretty much everything so I think if I'm trying to I'm going on the attack against an interview cruise cards. As it answered tight together they aren't tied together I think if I'm Cree news that's it's harder thing to play I think people after the debate. And I think I don't wanna send I think might mice if actor's supporters. Also Connolly a child I can't go too hard against him too hard in the paint yet. But man. He seems like that came in and I think Chris could play. Either way right you can make an argument that. The best thing down prophecy doesn't really have a foil and so we kind of mystery about this morning. Hogs up actually more than half lately 7%. Of media attention he has crews at one actually be the end died from and that's not such a bad thing at this point hearing your thoughts on. I would just say if I'm cruise. You see him he doesn't really want to take on trump in the press and I think you must once it is sympathetic figure all of Donald's going after me but I'm not going after him. I mean stroke felt telegraphed his intentions pretty well I'm sure he'll go after crews if you can. What is she Parker is that if you doesn't after trump then someone else may be will release and when this deck. Later on but when you drug cart area and see if this works out for an area overnight. Oh. I picked the man. Whose brother and father bush attempts gap that's not from federally. I thought bush is still a candidate. Jeb Bush is is a candidate that's correct he is running for president has learned time he he with the governor yet back on we have lots of money I mean. We say old means debates that we go to. Now lots ago. That bush was. Toast it lest we cycled through a couple of rounds of low on part of rubio imperative Christie that. Bush might not get another chance but what can you imagine your view. Bush doing tonight. In the debate to really revived his chances and not some perfunctory we remedial pastimes of and give you it nice review right it would actually excite. Republican donors and voters. I don't know I I think you we're tremendously there earlier I wonder if someone stands up to triumphant sense. You know pay like you're you're deluding the brand of the Republican Party this needs to stop. And it may be Jeb has made the trip I'll sizes Gatorade and makes this sort of stand against them. The bush isn't very popular isn't actually have the credibility they had to make an attack it's from its case sick right as people think. He sanctimonious he's got a net unfavorable rating among Republicans and some polls the same is obviously true for. For bush who in the GOP BG OP voters actually has the likable guy who's really exited. Mr. rubio Korea poll as carpal look at where. My people occurred. You thought you take. Stay in the middle rubio continues. When I ratings are higher yet and now from he is a candidate can. Powell after trump with credit Melanie so he interest in this that went along that's kind of been. And I hovered near the top but not only get that top tier each year one point five and in. Notes final 1530 where the are so likened. Come up so I'm quite sure what. But did make an important Peruvian because he's you know he's made this thing about he has a national media campaign best moment so it best moments I think he sort of wants to be. I think he I think he wants to go hard on foreign policy sort of thing. Possible through his credentials I think. The big night for rubio with some downside risk to it feels to me like you see a little bit of anti rubio in areas. Brewing on Twitter when you read you know behind the lines of actually being thrown that. His lack of a ground operation Iowa. And New Hampshire kind of went in and make the move. You know it could also save it well the campaign is trying to keep expectations modest slow and steady he still probably the default itself and choice and if he has a bad night. Tonight. I think there's a little bit of latent kind of negative media narrative waiting for me. Question remains. Where these now from Y happening behind this point and that's almost like they're looking for an excuse not to kept him. And so perhaps more apartments especially coupled with a a good performance are going to be this card it's easier. Europe and all the Chris today that. They are in the belly. I think that's going to be interesting dynamic weather Kristi rubio. Right. There's some actress rising in New Hampshire he's got a lot of endorsements at the union endorsement. And you know Christie could benefit from rubio kind of fallen off and the establishment may be thinking okay Christie's last up to ship. Classical music rooms is reluctant. To go after from. It you could secrecy for collectibles to let he's kind of like his heat in when he's in his note he's attacking certainly isn't against hunters implies the kind of strong. Personally Kristi. I thought the first debate Kristi was the lead and I'd been too much you know focused groupie stuff. The kind of strong version of Chris Christie had some kind in the magnetic resonance with. Donald Trump without it a little more polish to it. Anyway I guess clearly we're setting expectations but its seems to me like. A lot of times in debates a kind of reunify trends that are not an apparent it seems like Christie has more. Upside and downside tonight potentially he is a guy and he likes to cover their appetite for. Christie boomlet.
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