Transcript for FiveThirtyEight: Villanova is a weak favorite, and Wichita State is dangerous
Presented by. Precision crafted performance. Well the bracket set and we prince the numbers right now Villanova are favorites according to the 538 model that's the good news for the wildcats. The bad news is that with a 15% probability of winning a championship before playing games and of course they're tied to the lowest odds of any pretournament favorite in the last seven years since we started doing here I think what's the deal even though the wildcats are the number one overall seed. They were placed in the east alongside a bunch of other great team we do. S and U Baylor Virginia and Florida. All of whom could make serious runs in the turn now let's talk about outset cent everybody has their eye on potential twelve over five picks those tend to happen at least once a year according to our model the only 125 that really makes sense is for Middle Tennessee State to beat Minnesota and even then we still think Minnesota has a 52% chance of surviving the onslaught and moving on now appearing to eleven seeds also keep an eye on Xavier they have a 49% chance of beating Maryland in their first round match at. You know the public really kind of seems to be sleeping on the musketeers and see a lot of us for Marquette to beat South Carolina but our model has the gamecocks favors. And similarly VCU is perennially an upset pick the don't be tempted to take them over Saint Mary's our model thinks Saint Mary's are huge favorites in this game. And then they also have the potential to upset Arizona possibly in the next round and do damage further into the bracket. Now on to our cinder politics pay close attention to which a top state. There Tennessee but we think they have a 15% chance of going to the elite eight knowing how they have to go through Kentucky potentially to make it further in the term and that's a pretty tough hurdle to clear but. You have to consider that even though they were the tenth seeded team in the south the computer models have had been among the top ten teams and the whole country all your lawn. The opening round start on Thursday that you can find all of our predictions. An analysis at 538 dot com throughout the whole term.
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