Transcript for FiveThirtyEight's top 5 prospects in the NBA Draft.
The NBA draft is Thursday night and as part of our draft ritual here at 538 we decided to fire up our Carmelo projection systems received the best prospects are in the draft for the uninitiated Carmelo stands or she career arc regression model as the meter with local optimization and total coincidence that spells out. And it's basically just our way of projecting it. Player's career by looking at the most similar historical players and how their coolers and specifically we throw a player's stats into the models and see who falls out of the highest upside wins above replacement which is a measure of how many wins the players supposed to contribute over the first seven pro seasons. During got negative works season we can't really hold it against a player for coach decides that place and ready wit all of that in mind. Here are our top five prospects for the 2019 draft. Starting at a number five is hardly bear it but you might be a little surprising to see Barrett who most mock drafts have as the number three pay down at number five. But we think that he has distinct strengths and weaknesses in his game. He's a low efficiency by high usage swing man and his defense of indicator Arctic rate so he's kind of in the mold of a Carmelo Anthony your brain and inks. As a result we only get Barrett and outside wore a fifteen point four win. Meanwhile a number four we have Jackson haze of Texas and he's kind of the polar opposite of care. He's a big man who projects as a good rim protector and has high efficiency but a very load usage his offense might be limited to just finishing off of pick and roll in mock drafts he's projected generally on the edge of the top ten but we have him as the fourth best prospect here he might turn into somebody like Zach Collins or Brandan Wright. What all that in mind we give haze an upside wore a fifteen point eight. Moving on a number three we have your Culver of Texas Tech. Cover is a great all around players these stores at or above average and pretty much every single category and so we think he could become a nice all around wing man his best case in parables include Harrison Barnes and the game. Covers outside war it's seventeen point one went. But there's a huge gap between number three and number two on our list. Ms. Murray State's job ran he still its flaws in his game needs to work on turnovers and shooting efficiency. But some of its top comes parable players such as John Wallin Deere rose. Offer a glimpse into the true superstar potential that it had his outside worse when he five point four win. Finally it's no surprise that the number one prospects are rankings is Duke's Zion audience. Williamson also ranks as above average in every category but he's also near it would be an almost every katic story. Now we're not exactly going adult lamb with this pick I mean Zion as the top choice in basically every mock draft on planet but it is nice to see. The conventional wisdom match up with the stats. The thing that stands out about Zion in our comparison is they're really other players to compare him to his most similar player and other do you key. Doolittle Okafor isn't really compare it to him at all he'd never quite seen a player like Williams then was very offers position but has greats that across the board. Including rebounds blocks and steals and scores with such incredible efficiency. Because of all that his outside war is a ridiculous 36 point seven way about any other players in this back. So there you have it our top five we'll have to see if you. Actual picks reflect our rankings. Her son team is in for its deal on draft day for more draft coverage you can check out 538 dot com and we'll see you during forgave.
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