Will Georgia's shift toward the Democratic Party continue? | FiveThirtyEight

Democrats hope Georgia will become the next Virginia, but it could be the next North Carolina.
8:54 | 01/05/21

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Transcript for Will Georgia's shift toward the Democratic Party continue? | FiveThirtyEight
Hello there from 538 makeshift newsroom went Joseph I didn't. One Georgia in November it was the first time that Democrats. While honesty in almost thirty years and some out there is a significant question about what the political future sort terrible look like. And tonight. During the senate process we will get the first indication of what you know. The next notch will be whether it'll be for Republicans work for Democrats. And my colleague Perry bacon junior senior politics writer here it Perry. Agency Gayle. Good to see you choose certain you have kind of taken a look at how other states that have trended from. Red to blue particularly in the south have you vault over. A certain number of years or decades and tried to compare Georgia. To those states to get a sense of where torture is headed almost regardless of what happens tonight. So can you give me a sense. Where you had a sat in front of which state you would compare tortured him. Oh bid Jim rhetoric of Georgia and turn right. Color more organization more of modesty coming in. Georgia looks a little bit like Virginia and also a little bit like North Carolina. And that's an important question is an only Obama won Virginia first Democrat Lawton when Virginia and since then Virginia's among fairly blue state where Democrats whenever race. Obama also and only one North Carolina Democrats and wonder how long it. The North Carolina citizen is at seven races for senate or president. Republicans and one cent and the Democrats have won zero and so that's the core question like. North Carolina Democrats and at a state level but it. Virginia's become a blue state North Carolina really. Hasn't and what happens is Georgia one the other somewhere between we might not know until you cycles. That's an interesting juxtaposition between North Carolina and Virginia why has Virginia continued to trend Q collapsed to the point where you know we and our call publicity. Wall North Carolina has remain. A battleground or even out red state particularly when it comes to federal election. So what you Hammond Virginia is that he not the sort of more rural parts of the state were already pretty Republican. And getting a little more Republican but have not gotten much more but BDC. Area you know the area in Virginia suburb he sees I was in Virginia. Has gotten a much bigger and our coalition a lot more lips basically to sort of area around DC and Virginia has sort of taken over the rest the state. You seem to happen in Georgia she knew where he non Atlanta parts of Georgia were are pretty Republican they get a little more Republican in the trump here. But he Atlanta area rolled a lot population. And gotten a lot more democratic and it. But in North Carolina you pitch you trends. Like Charlotte the Charlotte area and in the Research Triangle area around Duke University. Those areas have grown and the Afghan war left but not as much as the Atlantic air DC areas get you had a has much. Left movement. And did in the more rural in the more excellent here's a new you see the bigger ship to the right to basically. North Carolina was a deputy state. And it's still one because the Democrats and get stronger in the cities but Beasley lost imminent ground in the rural areas. And Serbs a round Charlotte and Research Triangle are not as conservative. Are not as liberal as they are Serbs are run. Due. These three states have similar demographics and he clearly there's a trend when it cost you Urquhart verses rural communities and how they vote. Opera's opera that's plenty and it seems like when you have ST where is an Albany area that we need dominated. Poll in population growth and then ultimately politically. That seems to try to Wear it where I am in New York right now. When it comes to the demographics of those three states are they roughly. Equal but it's really that organization that is driving the differences or do they have different demographics. I think if urbanization beacons Georgia has the biggest black electorate these days you know gives up 30% of Georgia's voters are black but. And it helps Democrats. It is but also the white voters in Georgia are also more conservative than the two states within the suit eating not exactly clean there are more nonwhite voters of Georgia Schubert again. Vietnam the white voters in Georgia Morton is not exactly demographics are demographics are related easier I don't like dismiss those but I do think it's more. These states are all different things happening in the organization I think is a factor I think you white how to graduates in. Virginia are more able than either stated we conducted a nets within the demographic dome all the same ways that is a lot of things. Going on in the Reese three states and I would want to civil fine too much one other big issues that North Carolina. Compares Georgia. North and has one of the more rural states in the country. And so admit since you now will more rural states in the south region countries it's not enough avert. But North Carolina has more people live rural areas and George again. I think we're really to the origin matters in the like Yoon is Atlanta area is very sprawling. And about. 55%. Of people in Georgia live in the area only about forty arsenal on with a either Charlotte or Research Triangle has not just at. A relation growth is also. Is you like in Georgia is easier for the Democratic Party to register people because he's sort of Al all the Democrats in this one. It's hilarious you don't small. This little one costly areas where most Democrats are in Georgia compared. In north plant and they're more spread out Virginia has different areas and she even met Hampton roads Richmond vs the DC suburbs Virginia's more complicated politically but I think. During the diesel did you graphics transit big matter. Are so you've laid out North Carolina example at the Virginia example. If you patented taking gas. At this point and we will hold its hear it. Which direction is portrait added is it more easy highly urbanized. Blue state that Virginia has become well war is of them were model. Beautiful pool parties state North Carolina. I Timothy going to be more like North Carolina maybe not all seven on September 7 Jeremy. I think it's causing more model. Millions in like Georges and yet for real set majorities in the cell in the way that I would say. The DI don't DC years part of this alleys living easy but I mean Georgia's. Center tsao not away it's like being bid. My guess is the Republican Party in this post strong era in Georgia. Figures out a way to sort of steal back some of the people in need and some of the white college reds in the majority suburbs like being earned not. Permanent Democrats maybe sort of more Joseph Biden in this moment Democrats in this kind of what I get I had to be I would I think Brian. It's hard and nobody I had a bit in Bryant's him and Stacy your reaching see like still they don't bet on Bryant's jumper and I think in the long term. But fifteen years and ice in a big North Carolina. In Georgia will become democratic as the number can remember people color. And Holland graduates are going and again those are not modeled groups all. That's in the majority of people call him majority college graduates due at this point blow for Democrats those at big growing part electorate. White people who don't have degrees shrink in part over aren't particularly case that. 24 at age origins eve ball. And I think oh I don't see it coming Virginia and wait continues. Zero blue or. But again I could be totally wrong if you ask in 2008. Would go in north Kerry and resonate looking twelve years forward with the Democrats that are often Georgia or North Carolina was at. What are we talking about here is not a real question of course North Carolina so in some ways we don't know the future and these demographic trends aren't just trends. There and this. All right very important point there and we will get our next data point and a V Georgia trend line. This evening so it makes it into our lives locked until that place very. And.

This transcript has been automatically generated and may not be 100% accurate.

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