Why serious changes to policing are unlikely to happen

The crew discusses how public opinion of the Black Lives Matter movement has changed since last summer and what that may mean for police reform.
18:38 | 04/15/21

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Transcript for Why serious changes to policing are unlikely to happen
Hello and welcome to the five pretty politics podcast ideal entry. Today we're gonna talk about our public opinion has a vault on the black lives matter movement and police reform in general since last summer. On Sunday a Brooklyn center police officer in Minnesota shot and killed Donte' write a twenty year old black man after traffic's. His death happened just ten miles away from the ongoing dear children murder trial for the death of George florid last met. In the immediate aftermath of sports support for the black white matter movement increased along with political interest in police. So now that we're seeing protests again surrounding the killing of Dante right. Where did this conversation stand today and what do Americans think. Europe meet to discuss its fight dirty politics reporter Alex Daniels pallets. He Ian. As I mentioned last summer after the killing of torch from ward we saw a significant increase in support for the black lies about a movement we talked about it on this podcast at the time. There was increase in support among Democrats independents and Republicans alike. According to rescind its pole at the time all moral support for the movement moved from favoring the alana by a seventeen point margin. To a 28 point margin in just a matter of weeks so how has public opinion on black writers mattered changed since last summer's high. It's so you think the big take away is that support for the black eyes matter movement is decreasing. So you see today it said surveyed Americans last June it's not support for the movement at 60% and and looked at where was now a news reacted keepers. But it's hard to make a broad assessment. Support or opposition because so much of this depends on who you ask among groups are looking. So among black Americans support for the movement has spent high and it's it's always been high. Another point platforms civics as you mentioned has been tracking support for BO land over the past four plus years or so. It found that black American support has been consistently in the eightieth percentile. So I believe as a today 85% of black Americans say they support. The black eyes matter movement and that compares to 80% passed UNC you know a 3% drop maybe not that much in the grand scheme of things. Where we see the biggest change in last summer though is among white Americans have their support for black eyes matter. Pete's shortly after flight staff at 43%. And it's currently. Back down to the high thirties which is where was. The fourth link I'd. It's a do we have a sense of why we have seen more of it decrease and support for the clockwise not a commitment again amongst white Americans. Yet so one thing that I think it's important to note is that way Americans were never super Kang ho about black ice matters to be an actor eight. So it peaked at 43. A couple days after Floyd step but I was the highest in an effort and according to sit sixty. Beat Ford back it was only in my late twenties. Early to mid thirties just depending on the time of year but. This steep decrying from summer of 20/20 two. Now only twenty wine you know people can chalk that up to a number of recent heat else is it the decline in protests is it. Less media have bridge on ongoing calls for police reform act make it easier for white people to. Two out issues of race at an and that seems to be the consensus among experts are talked it's because. These issues of police reform happens let's see alien and not really in the media as much Santo. It's easier for people pay attention to them. And it when it passed a little about the partisanship factor here I mean how much does. Last summer we saw that. Across Republicans independents Democrats. There was significant movement and in fact because democratic support was already relatively high some of the biggest movement we saw in favor of black eyes matter what's amongst independents. And Republicans. So how have things changed since last summer according to partisanship. Yes so civics again tracked seated based on each. Race. See everything like that but one thing that we found was. There was definitely a dip in support. Among white Republicans you know it was a pretty big double digit decline forum. Opposition from black two black eyes matter in two to 20/20. Two were they are now. In eSATA and a couple of other difference. Demographic groups to use of the biggest dips and spark or black eyes among white Americans where. People who are holders to people between ages fifty and 64 Republicans and men the Democrats. Have been a little bit more steady and support for the black ice matter business. What does this all men. Four. Support for police reform more brought. Say the two are definitely connected. Public opinion is say hey Lisa part black eyes and support police reform. It puts pressure on lawmakers to pass something and it is something quickly. But since. Public that intensity so fleeing it adds includes a tragedy. It there's less pressure on lawmakers now to act because not many people are you know constantly telling them that they have to do something about this. I don't know if that rule changed after believes development and Minnesota with Donta bright staff. But I do you think it's important note that just because public opinion is so fleeting it makes it hard for lawmakers to constantly thinking about. This when age of. Yeah I mean how do Americans feel about. The police as an institution terror. Yes and don't have a time date on how people view police that you see today today about using gay keeps this survey I mentioned earlier showed back. As support for black eyes matter decrying it traps in local police and law enforcement to promote justice and equal treatment increased. So it's at 169%. Today compared to just 86% from its gene but trust of the police to enforce laws equally to treat people of color. Fairly depends again it's when those things are depends on he asked great. So an MP RP BS news hour and Marist poll found last year nearly half of black Americans 40%. Had very little to no confidence at all that local police treat black and white people the same. And only 12% of white Americans had that same view in so. It looks like this racial competence gap. And policing is only going to increase over time. You're talking about some of the initiatives by lawmakers potentially to work on police reform and of their last summer. There was bipartisan support for Christmas bills from both Republicans and Democrats a lot of times does ends up being a local issue and municipal level issue. But where do things stand on the federal. Great so this is big George Floyd acts that is passed the US house it has the support. I didn't. But it's less clear worry that they'll warfare in the sense you have some Republican sentiments aren't more moderate Democrats like. Mansion where it's not clear where he stands on that bill you have some Republicans like Kevin McCarthy saying that. The passage of this bill kind of you know solidified Democrats is this hurry he supports quote to finding the police so. That being said if he needs sixty votes in the senate to get the bill passed and it's not clear where all the Democrats and Republicans are completely opposed to it. I I don't know if the bill will eventually make it into La. That said Republicans are passing leader they are trying to pass their own version at some police report since Tim Scott who is the last black Republican senator. He's entreaties. A police reform bill but Democrats have criticized his bill is not going far enough. So his bill many. Senate if he gets enough support from Republicans and moderate Democrats and it's not clear her parent house. So you know with everything that's going on it's definitely pressure on lawmakers from both parties to get something passage just think. Because black ice matter has become so politicized in the last few years it's going to be hard for makers to reach some sort of consensus. Yet so we're talking of you know higher. Levels things that have taken on partisan meaning symbolic meaning acts out or. Somewhat similar to the conversation we had about Gunner for a moment podcast earlier this week. Which is that you know when you talk about very specific issues there may be brought support. But when you backed away and then you're talk about guns more broadly things become very partisan very quickly. When it comes to actual specific measures. All police reform specific measures that lawmakers might be considered for police reform. What kinds of things are there support for. Yes or released last week for boxing if or progress found that nearly three fourths of Americans. Misses his Republicans and Democrats. Either support or strongly support a federal ban on these choke holds. 71% of respondents said they want to and racial profiling and 84%. Said their and fever mandating police body agrees. And these three categories and Republicans were less likely than Democrat to support their forms but Republicans did support managing body cameras at nearly the same rate as democratic respondents. And you know again and it goes comes that federal bill the biggest hurdle has been an issue of qualified immunity or that protection shields police and other. Public officials from lawsuits. If its use of this conduct. So the issue has the industry the changes sock prior publications and has been. One of the few issues that Republicans have taken issue witness actually called a non starters that seems to be. The biggest tension point between the part east. So it sounds like there's some friction on the national level but. A lot of the more significant potential plea for Forbes would be made on the local level in municipalities that are largely run. By Democrats. What kinds of changes to police saying it had cities around the country. Need or tried to me over the past year. Yet so up nationally Barclays matter and the protests are after Floyd stacked. Put new pressure on seats in cities to scale back the force officers can use on civilians so a lot of the proposals that we stopped host Floyd. In those that ones that were successful dealt with the amount of force that officers are allowed T use. Com and there a couple different cities that passed bills related to. Getting choke holds so he's in for example which George Bush that's where he went to high school in the air signed an order last tune in beginning the least he says neck restraints and choke holds. In America also said that officers can kneel on the suspects snack which as you know led to flee stacked and he seen. Proposals and other cities to that primarily dealt with our officers use of force. There have been some proposals to either you. Others have been a little a successful. Yeah I mean what has that conversation. Didn't like what cities how to actually. Decreased or moved funding away from the police. Los Angeles and Baltimore are yet come to mind here both successful and you re allocating money away from police departments and in Austin, Texas the city's council. Unanimously voted to limit police use of force and reduce the department's when he 21 budget but again some of the eighties defund proposals have fallen short in Minneapolis which is the biggest example I can think. This city where Floyd died. Gary these promises to quote and policing as we know and those fell short because carmaker is a deal to compromise the there was an uptick in violent crime in the city. Yeah I mean how have the calls by actors Jude. Shaped the conversation about police reform over the past year and public opinion. I wouldn't say it shaped our damaging think in at the federal level to there's really only a small fraction of Democrats calling for. T funding or even abolishing the police. Anyhow I didn't the president who has taken away more moderate stance when it comes to gleacher for. Who before he was elected he said something to the affect of most cops her day in heat was made it clear line in the sand that he wasn't fever T funding the police. Bands you know even know. Former president trump tried to type right in to that movement he ultimately wasn't successful because. It was very clear idealist against that movement so I don't think. These defund proposals have you know dean Reynolds what's happening active congressional war local level for the most part. Yet as we've also talked about pockets as a bunch of mayoral elections going on this year around the country. Rating for him. New York City shoes Seattle's Boston. To Saint Louis reason. Merrill action there. What how is police reform being talked about being d.s auctions. Demean it please pilot I was New York City and so one thing that struck me is that the candidates are some candidates somewhere progressive candidates who had once advocated for. T finding that might keep he has started to distance themselves. From those proposals. Especially in very competitive mayoral race for example you have someone like Scott stringer city comptroller who. Ten to eleven months ago said that it was time to defund them YPD but then earlier this year at a mayoral forum. He was asked if he would commit to slashing the police. Department's six billion dollar budget in half. And he responded with you know this less drastic proposal. To one billion over the state and a four years. And of course he got some plaque from activists in the city. Thanking threatened some races there's this fear that if you go too far left on B funding the police. That you're going to alienate more moderate voters who might be key to winning some of these races. Yeah I mean why does public opinion look like cards to do its. So the village has never really been in favor of defund in the police and that in caps leads Democrats and black Americans to. And it's even after Floyd staff at the height of the protest there was never a consensus around like. More support for it was. Re allocating some police funding to other programs. And maybe that's cutting just one to 2% of the police budget and then giving it some more house that's where we found more the support that when you say AT five I think. Sometimes that's completed with abolish the police ends. When people see it that way they are way less likely to support it. Yet so you know year after this these large protests. I don't nationwide. To some extent conversation about structural racism and pleasing and other aspects of life. Does it seem like police reform is likely year or less likely because on one hand. Awareness has increased significantly. On the other hand you know we've seen something of a backlash and a partisan polarization on. The issue police reform we've also seen them an uptick in violent crime and subsidies. So wit where does that leave us a year after her. That it almost a year after these large scale protests and also in the middle of the Derrick sharpened trial for the murder of sorts Floyd and the recent news of another police killing of a black man in minutes. So I let it guess that public opinion on in the you know asking for police reform would increase just because sleep he said. The rape killing and then also the fact that we might get a verdict in the shipping case and is seen as next week that said. Well I think there will be more protests and calls for change I'm not. Sold on the fact that there's gonna be no this thorough look into how we can change policing the federal level and carted Ares I see that is because. After Wright's death you know president I didn't speak message let's you urged calm. Tell people not to abuse but he didn't immediately comment on what this means for congress. That's said I do think there's mounting pressure on diet and congressional Democrats to pass something considering entering the majority but what makes it got even more complicated is that even among Democrats. There's not really consensus around what should pass in what the best path foreigners. An agent that were awaiting the results. Derek Sharon's murder trial in the death of George Floyd. Of course that's going to be up to the jurors but what do Americans think I'll doubt that case and where accountability why. This race so it Dow compact case is. In my opinion anything but certain and we've written about this before how it's a common for police officers to feast legal consequences for excessive force and the one thing at an interesting is that a majority of Americans at 57% of Americans. Being showed it should be found guilty according to a recent economist Uga poll. But on the flip side 56%. Registered voters told good morning console and a separate survey. That they're not following the trial closely and 21% and it was because they didn't think anything would change. So some sentiments the American public that kind of regardless of the awareness that much. Rate. All right we'll take you so much for looking into this forest Alex I really appreciate it. Yes thank you can be. That's it for today's podcast my name is the electorate turning challenge in the virtual control room Claire editor Curtis is on audio editing. You can get in touch right emailing us at podcasts 53 com you can also course treated us with any questions comments. If your fan of the show leave us a reading a review Apple Store or tell someone about us. Based on listening post news. I.

This transcript has been automatically generated and may not be 100% accurate.

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