Transcript for How to watch the Georgia Senate runoffs like a pro | FiveThirtyEight
I'm me. Hello and happy election days from my thirties. Makeshift newsroom. My apartment it's been about two months since we have covered an election bias. The 21 election was never really over until this moment but first week of point 11. Brands organs will decide which party will control this act so Hewitt me to get a little bit a lay of the land. Going into this evening is that read it spiked or collapse analyst Nathaniel. You know an opinion. Happy here are you ready for 2020s. To finally be over I think it won't officially be over so we know result of excellent. Well you know do an act is a runoff for mayor of Modesto California in February so I personal considers point I need to be over until. I'm right that the editors we rely if for effect so let's talk about what stories even George there was a record breaking. Early votes or three million georgians voted early. And that not only breaks the record for early voting it also breaks the record for overall turnout. In any Georgia runoff period the previous record or us two point one billion in 2008. That's sounds like a big number but what can we actually read into that in terms. Results or expectations from. Yes so I cautioned people not to read too much into early voting numbers you know. Democrats or Republicans could jump out to huge lead in the early vote but of course that could just disappear if enough people of other party vote on Election Day itself. That said I think Democrats. Probably have to like what they're seeing in the early vote. So for one thing that high turnout is probably good for them in the past Georgia run apps have been very low turnout affairs. And that's tended to help the Republican Party in fact Republicans almost always keen vote share. In Georgia runoff relatives to the general election but I don't think we can count on that happening this. I'm secondly B share of black voters has been relatively high in the early vote this year aunts I believe it was around 31% of early voters were black. Where as in the general election map was from around 28 per cent com and of course given how close the general election was. Even a small boost in black voters who are a big part of the democratic base in Georgia could be good. Or so that's a lay of the land and Turner's early vote. What's positive for Democrats but of course it could all be reversed on Election Day we saw a lot of that he would November election in 20/20 in it looked like. You know Democrat from what Republicans out of the water in the early prominent it was a massive turnout amongst Republicans day off. Let's talk about the pole and patents are subject for some folks out there watching elections but the polls in Georgia. We're basically spot on in November so what are we see here are. Brett says the polls in November were within one point in Georgia so you know the pulling an opera and it's still the best tools in order to protect election. This time around both soc and warn knock lead by about two points in the I 38 average. And that's enough of believed that again Democrats can meaty allow themselves a bit of optimism. But clearly as we've seen repeatedly in past elections it's within the margin air. Can even normal O'Hare could mean Republicans. Renovated region reiterated to us right now before any of the results start cloning head. A normal average polling error in a general election at least in the presidential election is about three points right so if word if there's a polling error three points in this case. The Republicans pleaded Easley win. Or at least it would be a close race but they would still win so that should not be surprising are even understanding that there are currently in the. Polls right deal and and it's important to note that this is kind of a special election in that it's irregularly timed and it's particularly difficult to model the turnout for the selection so I would expect a normal pulling her to be even beer reports. Art good to keep in mind past results committed this evening and let's talk about proposals what are polls that are closed what are we gonna start seeing some of the precincts trick went and went white might we expect actual full count. It's to report. Yes so polls close in Georgia at 7 PM eastern time. And back in the general election Jordan actually counted relatively quickly so 94% of all votes were counted by 2 AM eastern on election the issue was that George it was so close of course. That the election could be called until deliver meaning 6% was counted and that took you days. Now the question is how close are these run offs going to be according to polls. They're probably going to be pretty close that we could be in for similar situation where we have most of vote in on election night but we need to wait for those last few ballots to beat on it. In order to be sure who the winner is. That's that if the result is less close than what the November last close in the polls show we could see it when companies think a lot and bomb the. So essentially your bracing for a late night you cavaliers like coffee and caffeine tools prepared. To cover. RY bought this evening. Yes people should not expect that our you know give us to keep their expectations in check for for an early call should expect not to have the results until at least late tonight. Human and most prized deterrent that. You're there. And if it is really nail biter to get it could take a couple days like it did back in November. So. We're gonna have a lot of eyeballs on the results as they trickle in and again we caution people that until you have like a full counties. Basically accounted for that making too many assumptions based off of those early tallies. Can can. Resulted in this meeting information essentially that there could be eight blue shift because maybe mail ballots that county. After day out ballots essentially what we saw back in November. Why shouldn't what counties should people keep our I'd sign and and what kind of traction that it looking forward once you are birds you know art for Oracle's. Yes so I'll be looking at first I think the Atlanta suburbs bombs so Cobb County connect county. On parts of Fulton County like Canada our home to a lot white upper class communities these are the places where in November by it and ran significantly head John ops and Democrats in the special election. So I'll be seeing whether those voters have me be decided. They want to give Biden full control of government when it they're sticking with there kind of split ticket tendencies and supporting Republicans who are now. Also be looking for turnout in northwestern Georgia from the fourteenth and eleventh congressional districts have seen really lagging early voting turnout so far. And that's an area that is pretty deeply Republican and where Republicans need a strong election Dave vote. In order to kindness reach their targets. Are well some good information there and it. Of course wouldn't like blogging throughout the evenings people should go join us there are more videos and probably. Podcast. But until that they thought they. Yeah and remember to subscribe to 538. YouTube by today the subscribe button. Wherever it idea haven't done in a while sort kind of again maybe here but it. Coming up.
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