'I do not buy that' a social media ban hurts Trump's 2024 aspirations: Nate Silver

538's Nate Silver on whether Trump's social media ban on platforms like Twitter and Facebook will impact a potential political comeback.
2:21 | 05/09/21

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Transcript for 'I do not buy that' a social media ban hurts Trump's 2024 aspirations: Nate Silver
On January 6th, president trump gave a speech rejecting the results and calling on people to fight. We feared he would incite further violence. We suspended the former president's account. Many people are concerned that platforms can ban elected leaders. I am too. We need an accountable process which is why we created an independent oversight board that can overrule our decisions. The reality is our country is deeply divided right now and that isn't something that tech companies alone can fix. Mark Zuckerberg on the Facebook oversight board which this week upheld the ban on Donald Trump for inciting January's insurrection at the capitol. He former president also banned from Twitter. Can trump get a political comeback without access to social media? Nate silver analyzes. There's no doubt trump was the king of the social media platforms. Before his suspension, tru had 89 million Twitter followers, making him the second most politician in the world after Barack Obama, and in the three months leading up to the 2020 election, his Facebook page had 336 million interactions which is around seven times as many as Joe Biden's 48 million in the same period. The conversation about trump is way down since his social media ban. He's now being mentioned about 3 million times per week on Twitter. Before his ban, that number could vary anywhere from 7 million to 50 million depending on the week. Here's the thing though, a geeky phrase we like to use. Correlation is not necessarily causation. Why are the numbers down? Maybe it's because he's no longer the leader of the free world. While he was still president, mentions of the trump were still above average with 30 million in the first week of his ban. It's only after he went to mar-a-lago that his numbers became so low. Let's also not neglect the role of the mainstream media. Also, his most important platform was cable news rather than Twitter. It was worth $2 billion in spending according to a "New York Times" analysis. By the way, only 22% of Americans even have a Twitter account. That compares to 56% who subscribe to cable TV, even in the area of cord cutting. I don't think I buy the aspirations of 2024. If he has a message his fans want to hear, he'll likely find some way to get that message out.

This transcript has been automatically generated and may not be 100% accurate.

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