Transcript for 'There's a reason why … (GOP has) tried to make it harder for people to vote': Silver
With senate bill 202, Georgia will take another step toward ensuring our elections are secure, accessible and fair. Ensuring the integrity of the ballot box isn't partisan. It's about ensuring our foundation of who we are as Georgians and Americans. Either we are a democracy or we are not. Either we believe in the idea of one person, one vote, or don't. Either we are a citizen or not. Dueling reactions to Georgia's new voting law, it comes in the wake of a presidential election. It saw the largest turnout in more than a century, but after then-president trump spent months making false claims of election fraud, Republican lawmakers across the country are now rushing to enact new restrictions on voting. Fivethirtyeight's Nate silver analyzes the impact. There's a reason why historically Republicans are made it harder for people to vote. Looking at changes in state voting laws since the 1990s, our research at fivethirtyeight said when voting rights are eased, it helps Democrats and when restricted, helps Republicans. Based on the historical data imposing a sweeping set of new restrictions among candidates by 2 to 3 percentage points in forthcoming elections. That's significant given how close many elections are these days, but as they warn you when you're buying stocks, past performance is no arantee of future result. That might also be the case when it comes to voting laws. Here's why. Before trump, the GOP tended to win the vote of states called high-propensity voters, but these voters tend to be suburban and college-educated, but lately those voters lean more democratic, especially in states like Georgia where Joe Biden gained 15 points among college grads. In the Georgia senate runoff where voter turnout was 10% lower than November, it improved. Meanwhile Republicans are trying to reduce mail-in voting, but in 2020 Democrats were more likely to vote by mail, it was maybe a new covid-related phenomenon. In Florida, for example, mail voting, Republicans took advantage of this. With that said, I don't want to take this too far. A lot of GOP changes are aimed at black voters by limiting programs like souls to the polls. It will probably make life harder for Democrats, but there's a chance it could backfire.
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