Transcript for 'Nobody wants a replay of Bush v. Gore': Nate Silver
and see the difference. Mail-in ballots will lead to the greatest fraud. I want to have the election. But I also don't want to have to wait three months and then find out that the ballots are and the election doesn't mean anything. Those in power who are doing their darndest to discourage people from voting. Even undermining the postal service in the run-up to an election that's going to be dependent on mail-in ballots so people don't get sick. President Obama eulogizing John Lewis on Thursday, speaking out against voter suppression as president trump continues to cast doubt on mail inform this -- mail-in voting. Even suggesting that the November election be postponed. There's no evidence that mail-in voting leads to widespread voter fraud. With an expectant increase in absentee voting could we see a delay in results. We asked fivethirtyeight's Nate silver to weigh in. Joe Biden's current eight point lead over president trump may not hold. If it comes down to individual states in November, we could be looking at a very long election week or even longer. The first reason is mail ballots. Right now, 29 states allow for no excuse absentee balloting. That number could grow. Another five states capital elections entirely by mail. The thing about mail ballots, not all ballots counted at once. In some states votes only have to be postmarked not received by election day. Typically ballots that come in later are more democratic, as democratic voters tend to be young and younger people, no judgment here, tend to procast Nate. Considered what happened in Arizona senate race in 2018, the Republican Martha mcsally led by a percentage point. But Sinema won 2.5 votes. That's a pretty big swing. Second problem is voting locations, like the long lines we saw in Georgia and Kentucky during their primaries, which could reflect social distancing, fewer poll workers. All that could lead to poll hours being extended and the possibility of litigation over absentee ballots. Look, nobody wants a replay of bush versus gore. When you have an election in the middle of a global pandemic, anything can happen. Anything is possible. Our thanks to Nate for that.
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