What the Congressional Budget Office's analysis of the GOP health care plan means for your coverage

ABC News' MaryAlice Parks and Ali Rogin break down the CBO's interpretation of the Obamacare repeal-and-replace proposal.
15:38 | 03/14/17

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Transcript for What the Congressional Budget Office's analysis of the GOP health care plan means for your coverage
Hey everybody I'm on the Nevada lie in New York we'll check this out millions of Americans woke up this morning. The front page headlines and how they might lose their health care coverage under the new Republican plan why is that well. The CBO the Congressional Budget Office is out with its analysis. Up that proposed plan to we're gonna walk if you eat healthy everything you need to know. About that scoring and what it means for your health care coverage joining me now from Capitol Hill in Washington DC. My colleagues Mary Alice park and how he broke in who have been studying that CBO analysis. And covering the story for many many months now I think so much for being with us. Yeah. So let's start at the very beginning with CB Oates gore is out what does that. Even me. Yes that's a giant airport 27 pages and we'd been poring through as you can imagine the the last wild and adolescent going for hours. And CBO is a longstanding institution appear on Capitol Hill they are often providing these sorts of estimates and projections for legislation that's in the works so. They take a look at what the legislation might mean on the US economy. In this case they look specifically at what it would mean in terms of cost how much of the federal government save how much of an apartment. Pay. If bill bill that the Republicans have proposed was in fact passed an act into law. And they also looked specifically at. Who might lose coverage and went coverage would look like in the next year five years ten years India on. One that's really important to remember is next head of the CBO's action Republican. Interestingly enough appointed by the new secretary of health and human services Tom price. So it's been really interesting to watch some Republicans. Back peddle the CBO report and argued with some of the numbers but the guy in charge of the reports with a Republican himself. And it's important to point out you that's correct me if I'm wrong with CBO does this often with other pieces of proposed legislation there's nothing part of thing about it in fact we talk about it. Oft been to be accurate we say the nonpartisan CBO right. Exactly they're doing is reports all the time for big giant he's the legislation that make news and much smaller bills or amendments that meant an even break for. OK so let's get into it now what are the big takeaways what do you think is the most important thing to come out of this report so far. Here personal you've found that comes to be Affordable Care Act that's the current legislation. In effect right now compared to that bill that Waugh 21 million more people would be uninsured. I 20/20. So that's. In the next three years and number climbs to 24 million by 20/20 six. I and what that means is that there's going to be about 52 million people in total. That are going to be uninsured by 20/20 six compare that with 28 million. Under the Affordable Care Act so there's where that 24 million difference number comes front. Now if you if you can't delve down into some of the numbers though the CBO also examined for example. Some of these tax credits that Republicans want to put in place. What I want to do is camp people tax credits based on their age right now the Affordable Care Act has tax assets cities. Based on people's income so this could really change the structure by which the credit that people have to afford. Health care coverage if there if they don't have it through their employer or through Medicaid or something. This is going to change that dramatically. In addition to say that. The GOP plan also changes the that total amount basically a cap. That insurance companies can charge. Older Americans. Right now the Affordable Care Act has a very specific limit on N how much more. I insurance carriers can charge older Americans rather than younger Americans that the premise being that. Older Americans. Naturally are going to have more health issues and therefore may need to pay a little bit more into the system than some of their younger counterparts. But this system changes that because now older Americans will. May have to pay more. And again the tax credit is. Based on age not income so regardless of your income if you're a 64 year old American and you're going to be getting this team tax credit. As someone who's making a million dollars a year how does that. Translate into real life application. Well yes this is the number that the CBO came up with its of that at 21 year old making 26000000. Dollars a year would see their annual premium. Actually shrink so it would go from about 17100 to 1450. Under the Republican claim about 200 dollars which. OK so enduring young Americans making. On the lower end I've been coming here you might actually turn out okay and that's it might work for you. If you're an older American if you're 64 years all of with the same income again the 64 year old with making 26000 dollars in here. See a spike in premiums from 17100. Dollars to 141600. A year under the Republican plan that is they. 121900. Dollar increase and that would be based on number one. The tax credits being switched to age based instead of income pays. And also the fact that insurance companies can charge older Americans more so Canada. I'm really big aspect of this of this plan that's getting a lot of concern on both sides of the aisle on the. So pat looks like from the numbers as we've seen so far older Americans on the lower income side. Will be hardest hit is that there aren't there other groups who are gonna be similarly affected. That's exactly right and that's what has a lot of Republicans up here and especially in the senate where we are right now really concerned. They're not sure that the system and they wanna get behind even at their colleagues in the house are supporting it because of those numbers really hurting. Those older Americans harness and that's why seeing some of those big announcements from groups like the AARP saying that hall nine. All older Americans might take the biggest hit. The other ones that might takes a you know it's a big hit might be some of the sickest Americans to be honest we talk about. Medicaid recipients off and we talk about for Americans that also can be posted disability if and so if some of the provisions in the belt means that states get less money from the federal government to pay for Medicaid. Helping poor people older people and people with disabilities that might mean less coverage less money for those folks so. The CBO reports really honest saying that it might hurt older Americans and sicker Americans but might really Bennett thing as our as of cash in hand. Some younger folks and especially some healthier folks on one end of spectrum. A piece of one of the big things be heard again and again rightist Republicans are talking about how they wanted to repeal and replace obamacare the affordable health care act. Affordable Care Act rather. They wanted to reduce the premiums right they touted again and again that the eight CA premiums were going to go up and they were right about that many of them did go up they said this new plan. Would reduce premiums does it do backed. Across the board. Actually I'm 88 does but with the caveat with a big asterisk here. Premiums are expected to rise during the first two years. The implementation of this plan that's according to the CBO again. Now the bait chain I am here that by I like a lot to present. I lot how ever after that in the years park prior to those first two years premiums are expected to go back down. Now again there's another big asterisk here which is that. Don't confuse premiums going bag down with them being less what Ben what they currently are. That's a big concern that Republicans have senator Ted Cruz. Among them he told me today that he's worried about number one premiums going up for two year skyrocketing as Mary Alice that. And then someone pointed out well senator Chris but and they go back down and his point is. They only go back down relative to the Affordable Care Act so people's premiums might be less under the Affordable Care Act and they went. Skinny. People's premiums by less under the Republican plan and they would have been under the current Obama administration plan. But that doesn't mean people start paying less than they currently what and crews and a lot of other Republicans for them that is the number one goal. Is to. Past what they currently are or what they would be projected to be so that is going to be a big bar for senate Republicans and right now they're not meeting that. The other part of this and one of the reasons why premiums. Do you go down. Is that are running the other aspects of Republicans are really touting. Is that. There's just going to be. More to lights they say it's actually a good thing that. Fewer Americans are going to be covered by a the Republican plan which they say leads to. More are more choice. And they they argue would lower premiums on the. So Mary Alice stupid thing we've been talking about some of these folks Republicans have been going out to these town halls. And basically facing a firings Clyde Wright of people. It worried about what this Republican plan might look like what it would mean for that worry they were gonna lose their coverage so far what we've learned. Is that many of them may actually lose coverage and those who keep coverage could see their premiums co op so how are Republicans going to elbit. To their constituent. Well what the importance of note here just common future. And it's not as simple as saying that someone has commerce today might instantly lose coverage right a lot of people that we're talking about our folks that don't currently get insurance from their employers who buy in these individual insurance marketplaces they go online they try to buy their own insurance. And what these numbers is projections all these estimates are talking about our how many people would choose to buy their insurance and would be able to buy their insurance. So if you if you have insurance from your employer and your flag continues to give your insurance is my and a light to you off and we don't know that. However the people that have insurance and employer but tomorrow it laid off and now suddenly they need to look for their insurance so. It's it's he's very abstract projections again about. Who might be needing this sort of insure that. I'm but again how they're gonna sell it I think that you're exactly right have been facing a lot of tough criticism literally each outing. Patents mean there was music and adjusting crazy video from across the country of these really really contentious town hall. One thing that Republicans appear on capitol color sank into this is the first stage that the plan right now is step one. Another step to inspect three more regulation changes that the secretary can put in place. Over the department of health and human services and they're promising. That's some of those changes is regulations he can put in place will make the marketplace is better more competitive like Allen was talking about. But that's a big giant TDD they haven't exactly rolled out what those specific regulation changes of B. And they're really asking Americans to trust them. That the insurance places it is market places or people can go on to buy insurance would be stable and down and would be more competitive. And to the Republicans credit we should point out one of their larger missions right and in terms of where this plan fits into other proposed legislation as well that they want to reduce. The deficit right everything that they're building right now they say is also working towards that goal so. Today chief Atwood this new plan. They actually do they reach I believe it's dignitaries have been billion dollars in deficit reduction. Which is huge that's one of the things absolutely that was a place they said we're gonna may come up with a plan that doesn't affect the deficit as much as obamacare does. This does that the question that I think they're going to be wrestling with. This week in the weeks to content ads this debate carries on is at what cost and that deficit reduction I mean it comes. Is the reason why you reduce so much of that deficit is number one fewer people are purchasing insurance plans which they argue was a good thing. I am an and number two the regulatory changes that Isner ouster saying we never really seen in di tale yet that they Sayer coming. I'm number three is the fact that they're going to be reducing and ultimately getting rid they'd. Gigantic expansion of Medicaid. That the Obama administration put in place and which over half of the states including a lot of Republican. Controlled states put in place so there's going to be fewer people on Medicaid there's going to be caps quite. I'm the number of people they can get on Medicaid per state. Fewer people buying into insurance plans. The individual mandate goes away so nobody is forced to buying. Health insurance which again all of these things the Republicans are saying now. Bring down the deficit but again you're hearing from a lot of folks that aren't house GOP deficit hawks including Paul Ryan Tom price. Their saying at what cost is this coming a lot of them come from states that have the Medicaid expansion and it's actually very popular. So presumably he's guys are looking ahead to their own. Campaigns and their own states and thinking gee this might not work out very well for me. If I vote for this plan that's actually going to harm a lot of my constituents and that's the balance that there they're trying to get at. They're an Oregon production by another name is. Well Donna production by another name is less federal spending that I is exactly right where they're saving money they're spending less money specifically on Medicaid which we know. Helps some of the most moment on the country that that's absolutely right you mentioned there Republicans looking at this moment. Future races that they might be facing how are Democrats approaching that's what's the argument that there structuring around this new Republican. Well they're making a point of calling it from care wherever you go it's it's the buzz word out here coming from Democrats the senate and a house. They want Republicans to own every single bit of this bill and as Los it'd be enacted they're quick to say that it will make people sicker. Is there arguments that it will specifically target some women's health care issues. I'm and also that it will cost people either really really near you know it's are focusing in zooming in. On those specific cases. Older Americans that might have to pay more premiums. The other big heart and it got into it is that this bill would roll back about a tax breaks for wealthy Americans which is just. Kind of easy fodder for Democrats do it they're saying hey you're getting a big tax breaks to millionaires. But you're charging. Older grandma maybe a little bit more so Democrats really having a field day up here pounding Republicans every chance they get. We can expect a lot more I think about battle. Over the week ahead sky thank you so much as a lot there a thank you for unpacking it for Mary Alice park an Alley Rogan live on Capitol Hill for us. Things on the things. I don't forget you can always go to abcnews.com. For more on that there's a ton of reporting breaking down that new CBO analysis and also how individual groups. Could be affected under that new Republican proposed health care plan. Stay right here for your latest live streams and news are gonna have a lot more coming up for you very soon including the latest on that eager nor'easter storm making its way across the northeast. I'll check back with you and a little bit thanks guys.

This transcript has been automatically generated and may not be 100% accurate.

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