Our 2020 Democratic primary draft: Episode 3

Members of the FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast team draft their picks for the 2020 Democratic nominee.
19:12 | 10/17/19

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Transcript for Our 2020 Democratic primary draft: Episode 3
Welcome to be third installment of the 538 point twenty democratic primary draft it's been awhile since we lasted one of these not since January. We also recently and on Tuesdays it's time to take stock of where things are in the primary race but before you. Let's mention who we all think the last time we did this it was January remembered so I. Elizabeth Warren. Solid I now. Need you picked Kabul parents Claire you pick better or work. Out. And make your pick me Klobuchar so that was. All of our respect I feel pretty confident that I won't backdrop. No we were trying to. Actually going to. Act like. It. I don't think you're trying to enter public arts and let's let's do this again and figure out the mortar art rusty before music festival. Back from overall in Idaho. In Boise. Erica and I am going QB. Boring but consistent and I am going to tax Elizabeth Warren. In Tuesday night's debate we've got to see what it what like when the rest of the field. Considered Elizabeth Warren as a front runner and spent the majority of their energy basically attacking her policies and Zetterberg. Mean he's this applicant with rigorous statement as he. But we got the opportunity to see how she would respond. And how she would withstand those kinds of attacks. I don't think that we're going to see significant movement in the polls a week from her after Tuesday night debate which means that she will still be polling in. The needs. Twenties to almost 30% nationally is still doing well and Iowa still doing well in New Hampshire that puts earn a good position to win the democratic. In point of fact. Our post debate Paul wins access shows Wawrinka highest. Rating on her debate performance. And our this year voters considering voting for Earth Day increased by that time that an increase the bid which is meaningful cause she was already won an operative. But electability. As may be is that it is that a problem for her. Should the woman yes please. Hush up. This consistently since probably calling where her poll numbers have gone up but are currently hurt. Her unfavorable some sort of mean this in. Even as she's risen I think she was a more precise description an electable electable. People are worried about her performance in the upper west it's issue too far. Far away. Are states where the Democrats do you actually probably need to win back some some people who. But it for. I think it is listening to the blast and we did this in January. Ole is that Warren was not pulling out the top of the pack and all people point at the top of the pack when Matt and we kept asking on the podcast in chats. Are Democrats unwilling to you kind of vote for a woman in this primary I think they made it clear at this point that they are willing to hear and that you know. Arguably right now in the democratic primary race. A woman is the front runner. So some element of some war quote runner but at least. Either front runner or co front runner and also under. Some of the hardest circumstances were hurt in it to me she as you mention improved her standing with partners I think that's. Settle for a chances. Colette you're up next whose are. Undergo Joseph Biden. Former self senator from Delaware Biden is the front runner where Warren. Fighting in Warner. We're calling them out cold front runners. Although I think is still articles. Every average I'd laws that we now have videos where. Isn't interesting Pope front runner in part because. I think a lot of people in the media and probably on the very vocal political parts of Twitter which. Reader. He's not well but I think he is for a lot of people sort of steady at the tilt choice. He's. You know there a couple of moderate candidates that it Klobuchar obviously and that more are trying to be enough mater Kathleen. Biden is kind of the leader in space and as a threatening. He's a couple. Called the front runner question mark Biden as a real. And base of support with black voters which I don't enlisted. We can't sort of take that for granted these candidates you know where I think his partnership is a little bit wobbly is mounting that well I. Keeps common form an Ohio. He's his campaign's kinds that does meet. He's in Warren leading in New Hampshire and that probably buy it. I don't in South Carolina and due out Super Tuesday and is wary that momentum and leave them so joke. It. Added to back that up right since all of this Ukraine scandal talks came out. We solve it about our losses and mean anything in the polls really which airs Wednesday evening. Hours are Nate. You're back next. He ago. A few record opportunities things I've born in the line that contrary despite our reputation that perhaps for bystanders in this is going to be. One of those times I would say Bernie Sanders is the third most likely that. Nominee I think there's a debate between when a candidate atlas will that in case that candidate becomes an arena later on. Well let's let's everything Bernie is currently third in the polls. I thought he had a strong debate actually in our poll is a bit more mixed for him. But you know I thought it was one has more effective members themselves. He just announced. At least two of the four members of the so called squad. Have endorsed him including embassy I don't want to over think it. Is lot of money. One group of supporters. You could argue for our. He wanted to of the tenants in their places and there is a big drop off between one to you and then entry here. I don't marijuana or drop off writer I mean yet and ten points between Bernie Sanders and the next person and so you know kind of best theory that fits that evidence right now is Bernie Sanders. Is a huge influence on the party. It's eight factional and so we do know is up in the polls on some other people I don't think he's more likely. Let's not overplay the narrative of the race fundamentally he's in third place in the polls he's in. First place our second place and fund raising right. His cash on hand while he and thirty some million which is well above and it under varied. You know on an age thing and there are a lot of liabilities rant saying like an announcement. And he is their pot are in my that you get cute pics. Double pet you don't snaked out OK I want to peck. Included judge. I think Rudy judges fairly suffix. Is not doing great in national polls but if you look at polls of Iowa New Hampshire is in double digits. I thought he added. In praise upon in the third quarter I thought he had. Good debate on Tuesday night. Our poll with its us out rate and I think it's pretty straight are now you can imagine a world a much footage of Iowa. I'm money I'm meant. Goes on to pick them that are. Where things get interesting battle it. Is and believe that the reason I went went. Come on Harris is that it and Klobuchar. Is because. Harris has had a higher ceiling so far in the big night at some trying to overcome a little bit of a recent bias. Klobuchar had a really good night on Tuesday night. Her electability scores and are successful and up. The share burgers considered her when. It was probably her past that I'm probably lets them past the white act kind of a low bar to clear yet that she has had better I think any subsequent today. She was a much more. It was kind of equipment conference where she was one of two people that was booted in Klobuchar who were really going after war and kind of full stop and Klobuchar. You know since image using things along the lines. Let's listen Elizabeth and a round of plants like just you have my plan doesn't. C two up and the entire system doesn't mean it isn't thoughtful and good she is trying to basically appeal at this point to people in Iowa and where she has an in. So. If that's her her work like she did not. I have a question for you might cut because it seems to mean like voters have had plenty of opportunities to make their assessment of Connell Harris. She got she's got a lot of media as she was up in the polls. At the start of their issued a lot of attention after the first degree she got a lot of attention and it seemed like voters have decided that they're not really into her. Where is somewhat like any Klobuchar has really been assessed by. Voters nationally so it seemed like. We hardly know where voters how voters feel about comma errors whereas Amy Klobuchar of potentially more wild card. Maybe we should wait and see you like okay shared he has a bigger media platform that Klobuchar she adds more money she's decided she's focusing as bulletproof her. Electability elsewhere. It's sort of. It's sort of a case it's a similar case they think back to win a warrant was intact. When she was languishing in Nepal's and that's what I thought we kept asking why we license our sentence yes meaningful. You know just like at eight and now like four players I think though that even on hurt her name recognition was pretty high so I I think there is. Ability to the idea like voters have had their outlook. Pat Harris but Claire's points. As we get close Iowa warned more voters. Well. Be in the room looking right that this kind of audience increases and also three point if you want to explain Paris has declined. In terms. Campaign mistakes well that's all the more reason that she could turn it around right as they you can shake up. You can shake up your campaign. At one point she was like 20% Paul's Klobuchar turbulent. Than twenty people. She finished her son Robert. Liggett premier will look. Tell. Us that certain polls and I got our next week guy's knee back to you are. I OPEC. The book which our desire. There is exponential declined if you get from light. Into doubt and literally six. And there's one big bear here for Amy. K. Which is that. What's happened. Critics LS they have such yell that for any case. Which is that she is not qualified for the next debate in November. Oh that's another isn't a carrot and needs again in theory not often debate is not necessarily in. Yes sentence for Brett who seem that if you don't get into paint in the media ignores you even more. This plan for banking on longshot occurring. There is upside people which are. In a couple of ways where number one. She appeared to be a strong candidate in Iowa she is the only candidate. From a state that borders Iowa I believe. It was the only major candidate and yet it is not right. She is marginally more lightly in Iowa polls and she is nationally. You know sometimes getting in the mid single digits in some of the very low single digits. She did along win mayor Pete and Warren. Do well across the bright objects in our poll gives those on the debate. Aaron if you have Biden collapse she's probably the most. Explicitly moderate candidate in the race and some when he can make some good arguments about electability. So it's action portfolio. Of life long shot chances yet with some really obvious problems do not letting us. Promise what you just not atlases. It's hard to imagine close friend and well unless by. Prodigy get over the editors there is some argument at a bargain collapses but it does she thought some about she gets people who say they want. All right Claire you're up next widths at a. You're never answer that's all that no excuse me. Pandering pandering but he had no I'm OK I think Andrew Yang. First call in choosing to. Yang learn how to debate. And like honestly I think all in public if you think all the units and where they started. This isn't it they get the biggest improvement probably made like the most of his platform and effort it. He's all holding. I believe. Cunningham on higher than Cory Booker higher than that brewer he had is. Fund raising as he got. This as I read it and I am I not been. We know out of the pat cola and yet I'm cash on hand but I think you know more than he's also like. Someone who's actually been able to influence the conversation and him. You stop castor on stage last night say I would consider piloting UBI or the basic income which is what. And regulating effort yanks beat and it. I think he's been able to expand his message I think he's kind of going for like the outsider appeal which means he's gonna cite some. Younger Bernie Sanders voters but also. Maybe that the people who like ward and Connolly that policy focusing economists. Like in. I don't think he is. I'm actually in the past couple weeks. He's actually a pretty decent candidate. I mean it's it's easy for me for looking back. At the Wikipedia page of its weekly democratic primary. A year from now. If every airing got like the third most votes. That wouldn't surprise it is no realism to drop out rate. He's he's got his ball out loyal base Wright for talking with you think nothing and anymore it well he's like. One of the polls I'm not trees are gonna come like a universal basic candidate that's. Some terrible. He thought he went towards how we Warren on actual policy detail comic automation and trade and things like that where other candidates seem to fall some. Wonder what that's all wonderful if you are likely to win them packed news. The democratic nomination. Dan. Cory Booker. Lan Caster. Now that argument I can't I don't think. I think that is in Castro bonkers no it's not. Quite Castro to win the democratic nomination after her well. If it. If we got into that world I think you would see. A wholesale movement on the part of them directly to get some house that's what happened when six Republicans and Donald know it or not it's not an immaculate. Republican elites never made and are. Republicans. My hunch would be democratic leads warrant lessons from what Republicans did wrong when he. Our final I am going to go where. Cory Booker. I think this. Reason I argued that Amy Klobuchar media should be considered at Kabul Harris and that speak. He hasn't had his opportunity to be considered by the water pump. You know. He does that people who know and like him as a positive message I think. In a campaign work and we're going to try to draw contrasts with the president. You know that positive message we all need Q pavlik common. You know common values are common goals at Sutter could resonate you know were. Repeat picks in now so I'm not saying his chances are likely. But if something crazy happens and we are down to you. You know the third here. It's not Michael on an audience I do thank you when in fact the court. I mean. I think I think I mean he's all peace and love. Even he's a very good speaker on the stump. In America. He had is a potential weigh in with Iowa right he could peek at play. Happy warrior friendly guy he he also has a potential end in South Carolina he's a black candidate that's. A state where the electorate as two thirds black. Like there's a lot of ways I think Cory Booker to me he has been consistently. Acting in. The person who had is the most potential to pop. You know what it felt like cores bunkers bunkers had that debate. I think orbiter was thinking about. This would it nice little hot and it. That would make or what that would make my picks pretty good and I think it was or parents or are you mixing ticket union Unionist. Some me. After accused evening's debate that they that court seems like he was running for me in good and it didn't want a repeat of the two according to us. Let partners. Be big VP nominee can we say a couple of interesting things about people who war. A couple and has been really quite what to think about healthy nothing about. A poll recently conducted a New Hampshire. Primary found Michelle Obama would and her as the front right there nobody picked her. I write here are facts and make is cheating as usual. But Michelle Obama. Demand that development. Comment below one. Please don't comment. Yeah.

This transcript has been automatically generated and may not be 100% accurate.

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