Transcript for Confidence Interval: Will Democrats win the trifecta? l FiveThirtyEight
A young what are we doing to that. Hey Johnny today we've got another installment confidence interval where we give your take that we've been hearing and tell you how confident. What's your take. Today's take is that Democrats are favored to win eight tried fact this fall. And what we mean by trifecta is that they would win the presidency. Control of this and it and means he patrol. House now according to our fourth. We did biting and 87% chance of winning the presidency so he is favorite fare. In the house Democrats have and 96%. Chance of maintaining control of that chamber which is quite high. And then Democrats have a 73%. Chance of winning the sack. So what we're talking about is that combined probability that Democrats were to wean wolf. So what does it really comes down to you is this act. It Democrats have won the senate they have probably won the presidency as well so let's key in on the sacked for a moment. Right now Democrats have 47 seats considering that two independents caucus with the Democrats and Republicans have 53 seat. So in order to get it to a tie which a hypothetical vice president Connolly Harris would break. Democrats would need to gain three seats however they're pretty likely to lose Doug Jones seat in the senate you out there. So if you take that into consideration they probably have to win. Four seats. Right now Democrats are favored to win senate seats that Republicans currently control. In exactly four states any order of likelihood those states are Colorado. Arizona North Carolina and me. Those four seats would get them there Torre if they lose out he don't lose Alabama it would get them to 51 seats. After mean we see that the Reese is about even in Iowa. For Gemini Ernst see the Republican incumbent than we see that the next likely pick up is Georgia and then Montana and it goes on from there. To put this on context whether or not Democrats win the trifecta presidency house and senate. Makes a big difference in terms of what a potential president Joseph Biden could actually do you. If Democrats control house and presidency but not the senate. That means that any legislation passed they have to get senate majority leader Mitch McConnell and other Republicans on board but legislature. And Democrats have a lot of pretty liberal and pretty ambitious policies that they're interested in passing under a potential president buy it. And so it's unlikely that Republicans would actually beyond portrait those. Really what I'm saying is that the democratic agenda calms down to whether or not they when it. Quick but how confident are you that this. So our forecast. Just doesn't actually show a combined probability of Democrats winning the presidency. The senate and house the probability is that I mentioned earlier our individual probability is for each of so. Presidency 87%. Senate on its own 73%. And house on its own 96%. But I looked under the hood and I actually found that combine probability. And it's 70%. So when it comes to our confidence interval I would say I don't twenty box on. But here's something important to understand when it comes to whether or not Democrats can and act baton liberal agenda that I mention. It's not just about whether or not it can win a bare majority in the senate so bring it to a 5050 tie and then be able to break that tie with the price presidency. Because it not scenario they only have to lose one democratic senate members in order to not be able to pass their legislation. So we have to think about what the likelihood is that Democrats are two wins say 52 seats 53 seats fifty foresees. I check that out as well. When we're talking about whether or not Democrats are likely to win 52 seats or more. That probability is 47%. So less than a majority chants that they get 52 plus cents. The 34% chance in 54 plus senate seats it's a 23%. Chance so about a one in four chance. So while Democrats are favored to get that bare majority they're not necessarily favored to get the kind of majority that would allow them to lose democratic senators in a important votes. And still be able to pass the ambitious legislation that they've been talking about Nestle auction. If you like this video war honestly unit you can subscribe to 530 on YouTube by clicking right.
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