Transcript for Confidence Interval: Republicans Will Win Back Congress In 2022 | FiveThirtyEight
Pain and Ana today where according another episode thirty eight's hit series confidence interval. Where we gave you a take and then we tell you how confidently and okay what's your take. My take is that Republicans will take back control of both the senate and the house and it's funny trying to mid term elections. Democrats may have the majority right now but their majorities are very small. In the senate they just controllers are 5050 with come on Harris and deciding. That means Republicans only need to win one seat in order to flip the chamber and I'll have many opportunities to do so such as in Georgia Arizona and the in the house Democrats only 19 more seats than Republicans in the twenties on elections. And many people think that redistricting alone we'll create enough opportunities for Republicans to take back control. Oh. OK sue how confident are you in this I do willing to bet twenty dollars and Republican slipping house. But in the senate and a little less confident. I do think it makes sense. The reason I'm so confident that Republicans will flip a house is that it's one of the most reliable rules in politics that the president's party loses seats in the mid term elections. They done so in nineteen of the last 21 mid terms. By contrast the president's party usually does poorly in the senate but not always other factors like candidate quality can play a role as well. For example in Barack Obama's Kirsten internal action twenty tan. Republicans blew their chance at a senate majority because they nominated candidates that were too far to the Reitman states. That could happen again twenty point him. That said Democrats have much less room for error in 20/20 two after all Republicans only need to flip one scene in order to control the senate. If you like this video remembered subscribe to 538 on YouTube. And and blue.
This transcript has been automatically generated and may not be 100% accurate.