How does early voting affect the forecast? l FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast

In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the current election forecasts and answer questions from listeners.
39:56 | 10/17/20

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Transcript for How does early voting affect the forecast? l FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast
Yeah atomic something funny we need a current cold open. I can't think spontaneously and and a community. We got it but that ethnic but the Cologne. Ha. But if it. Hello and welcome to 530 politics podcast I'm deal and Eric. I'm knees older. And this. Is the little is modeled saw. I don't know if we got it would we David Villa. In me it's have. It's a rainy. Morning recording this. Nothing but darkness on the horizon so you know maybe a little bit lackluster. Relative to some previous mouth like interest but. Well I was gonna say we have eighteen days and fell election. How are you doing it sounds like it not great. Now okay it's like Xena was paradise for each day each step is like places longer something. Yeah I don't there's been. You know. The social media and stuff like a little bit of re litigation is. When he sixteen always that always different topic. Love to see it do you feel like the pressure is on this time around unit way. That's any different because people had doubts about the forecast in 2016. Is whether legitimate or illegitimate in. I think and you can go ahead and you know it out of unison what does that look podcast aggregators right so if you're aggregators right I think I 38 should have gotten. Knowledge we now have blamed that we should have gotten. A lot of credit for 2016 for being crash and and effort giving trump. A pretty good shot when people didn't end so well right. Anybody who listens to this podcast nose back. So I guess I'm curious I understand that does the pressure feel any different. This time around not because whether or not those criticisms are legitimate we've said that they are. But because of the popular perception of forecasting and polling in things like that. It's all stupid right. All these models and an east Unita differences now right all the models have Biden at about the same number 87%. Congress has 91%. Right. You know when 80% 84%. Are also OK and what we're not the point we can go back and examine how big is his league. How off we polls have to be for trying to win right. Just we're just handicapping services right that's the correct numbers it trump is somewhere in the raised human beings right. Some are a range of 5% to 20% depending different assumptions. Given how far behind he is in the polls and given that we had two and half weeks ago right. And accounting for the fact that airs a courtly and different states like you know. We are setting those odds. Correctly we do not determine if we're in the won a world. Where he lives of one and he went savaging that's right that's to us talk to voters to to the candidates to the world right up to the polls applicants to some extent right. But we're sitting proper odds. And in a world people are more rational right then and I really care if the want any comes up this enemy comes up right. Now realistically will. I've been on and well the whole polling will be a lot of probably I doubt it because like I can't do anything about it and I like it was genuine honest answer and to be the best forecast that I can't. So I can't do anything about it I'd much rather be on the side where 87% of the time. We'll look at least some what Smart right. Instead of 70%. You know given that we get aren't even if like we have a near a favorite who loses right I'd much rather that some of you have your favorite. But beyond that I can't do anything about it. Aren't you heard it here first Brooks according to 538 Neitzel over at exactly zero. To give. If you don't like our staff. I can't I mean what can could think it. We we spend so much time. Same with these models thinking carefully about different sources of uncertainty and making. Conservative. Choices. We think right. Not unduly conservative but understanding that usually when your back testing a model. You tend to make overly optimistic choices civil economy and deliberate choices that we air on the conservative side right. Donald Trump is at half points behind. In national polls probably seven H seven hapless behind him in the tipping point states right. But I was at 52 of anything percent of the vote. There and utterly undecided voters left twenty people already voted is that time we're recording this right the race has been. Pretty stable trump is trying the same lines that he has for the whole campaign and have him. Ten points down right. There's a pandemic gets killed how many people now great and it's getting worse again in the US we're not going on a live idle him. But with a model that says Biden is a heavy favorite right to me. They trump still has a one in seven or one in eight chance or whatever is actually kind of a given all the things that like are going wrong for him right that's not. Small soy think it's fair to say that how the public use our work is. And we hope that people appreciate that. But let's check in and specifically where our forecasts stand for the presidency sent house it's on our and then get into you. Some more specific questions so as of the time of this recording which is Friday morning a rating mansion Joseph Biden as an 87% chance of winning. Democrats have a 73%. Chance of winning the senate. And in 96% chance of keeping house counsel look this up before we recorded it's not listed on the forecast. But Democrats have a combined 70% chance of waiting all threes or there's a slim chance. Democrats where I guess we in the senate but not the presidency but in large part because that trifecta hinges on or posters. Or price verse let's start talking about the senate which has the most uncertainty involved in the forecast at this point and democrats' chances of winning that chamber have gone up by about ten percentage points. In the past ten days and they brought up from about 58%. When we watched so watch responsible for the changes seen. So. What we keep in mind with. With all these forecasts is that. Democrats. Are ahead. And so if tyrants off the clock in the situation stays as it was a forward. Then. They gained ground because there's less time for Republicans to have something shipped that brings the respect toward them. Yeah what the senate it just a lot of like. You know drip drip drip. Individual polls and individual states attentive be fairly good for. For Democrats right. You know there's been a bunch of polling in North Carolina and the concession. Cal Cunningham and the Democrats that would head despite sexting accusations. You know Gideon in May in the Democrat is up to it. 63% to regain kind of it's a little bit of the Todd Simpson to lean democratic in Maine. In Georgia. Quite a bit of polling there and vote those races number there's a runoff race in Georgia received special much recent Georgia. The has multiple candidates on the ballot for both parties. Com which happen airs at you have to Republicans Kelly law Wheeler and Doug Collins who kind of trying to out like when other and the kind of crazy. Far right I mean. Kill Hitler like was endorsement cute enough support in the day and proudly bragged about it right. Whereas when Democrat held warned Iraq has locked up almost all the democratic vote. So it's also the very competitive race we play out boat the primary and runoff. Jose on George art we did have several listeners sent us questions about that folks noticed that in one day Republicans went from a 72% chance of holding that seat in the special election to a 51%. Chance it will was or something specific that happened on that Wanda. Is pretty usual if you track our models for us to have that sharp shift. The reason act in the years that you have all these pollsters that have been conducting polls of Georgia but they haven't been testing. Potential runoff match ups right. Quinnipiac finally. Tested were knocked verses Locklear and Collins one on one and they have more knock the Democrat. Way ahead. So finally getting a runoff polls we basically were flying blind. May the model more confident that. Democrats have potentially win a runoff there and since that race is very very likely to go to Iran. Van. That was important. To the ball when considering the likelihood of the Democrat or Republican greeting that runoff election in order it. It's going to happen seen January. And were already got to know the results of the election. So eases does that change the probabilities at all once that happens as there are different. Electorate say in a special election runoff than there would be in November. The current Democrats have an edge in the generic ballot right there are six points. Ahead and that's from the national environment is pro democratic race for congress by six points. I believe the model since it for the runoff. That it goes back to neutral environment or at least an uncertain environment right so it does assume that. That things are worse for Democrats and they would be if you had that were not immediately wart like he's ahead in the polls the runoff. Our models Pryor is prominent Republicans would wither and and it's balancing those two and kind of coming up with 5050 injury Japan. Part so we are focusing in on the senate we've talked about North Carolina and Georgia or are we seeing any other. Significant polls coming in giving us a better picture of how the races are playing out and may be. Starting we have a last which plenty of people have asked about and has become somewhat of a medium on Twitter. What's the expression don't sleep on Alaska don't sleep we'll ask it. I think that election Twitter has been like crowd funding even holes of Alaska. I don't know. What exactly is so exciting about Alaska I am sure that it's lovely and obviously it's the largest state in the union so there's lots to love let out what do we know about the original senate race. Or president for. So. We will know Moorer Africa mr. currency New York Times. See an account upshot apple will be available in Alaska hasn't been a lot of political analyst and when the polling Alaska's always kind of mass. You get some partisan polling suggesting that the race is very close to senate race there. Accuracy went back with that York times poll shows but if every 2008. A similar year for the top of the ticket presidentially. Democrat mark baggage won a senate race in Alaska betterment we just a little bit maybe. This year were outgrowth degree candidate. In the polls is kind of tide now those mostly partisan polls right kind of tie right now he could a couple of points behind. Dan Sullivan the incumbent I guess let's not personal Alaska had sold it up for work and at the parts of polls and tie. And that also would translate into the seldom pulls forward Alaska's the there's a lot of uncertainty. And so it's a race to watch right we have with about 25% chance. Of winning pre up shots you know poll. And the presidency for that matter mean you know bite is doing well to speaking in a lot of these Vieri northern states. I mean. Minnesota right. So we have heightened with about it when he 5% chances. Of winning the presidency in Alaska. To follow up we got we're gonna get more listener questions later but we did cap oh wasn't a question on this and it's from Dave he says. Perry wrote an article on the senate races in Montana Kansas and Alaska. Right now the model is showing dams at 32% 26% and 23%. Chance of winning a state taken together that he's 61%. Chance dams win at least one of those three senate seat. Is this the proper way to interpret the model where should we assume they're four. No Chris they are they are correlated. Not correlated as much as presidential states are. Senate races can operate simply independently from another but they are the are correlated for sure if you look very carefully elect our senate is Seagram. The graph is a little a symmetric meaning there is a tale. Weird. Where loopholes. Underestimate Democrats they would all these lean Republican races right as wells all the toss ups. And Galveston 55% the democratic senators right. So Republicans do need to worry. I doubt that the same time. You know everything holds and Democrats could lose all the news radars slash tosses racism. And have it. Production Kevin Everett captain to keep its and it's not happen. Yet aren't so I do wanted to run presidency but are there any other state polls that Chicago high. Since I guess Monday before we move all. Percent Apple's. I think about it the thing about sinner racist who's at the polling has to be pretty stable and a model is pretty conservative about. Shifting those races ran right you know yet a poll for example. In Michigan that she or the Republican John James. Only one point behind. From upshot but that you and other polls like oh my gosh is that race a toss up now. But it's a new cancer roller poll showing Gary Peters a democratic incumbent ahead by. Six to eight points six to nine went so like you know people. Change their minds. In the senate races much is like for the presidency they don't seek the presidency much either right kind of like you know you wanna take a pretty long term. Look at the polls and not expected to be some type of sharp turning went necessarily. So when it comes to the presidency last week on models are used at the state polls didn't quite reflect that ten to eleven point race that we are seeing in. National polls. Is that still the keys or have we seen Steve polls catch up to the national points. A little bit I mean I'd say maybe there's a points worth of the gap right we're. Where it's like. You know more like diner can Boeing's if you strictly from state poll vs tenor Adam points in national polls. I think some of the higher quality. State polls mean a year more in line with the larger leaves for buying there's a lot of kind of mediocre Republican leaning. Robo polls. Are Volcker etc. that like I knew. Kind of get thrown averages right in the tend to sometimes. Collectively doc bite down by. Half of Bollinger point or something right if there are several of them any given time. You know I don't know but also ten or eleven point is pretty. Gargantuan lead and they sat reasoning it'd be at severity win. So there's some in the prior which should be skeptical he's really haven't had eleven points out it's been great but clearly comes not and create cheap exactly. Do we have any better cents at this point 01 responsible for were this polling card for Biden last week recess so many things were happening at once it's hard to disentangle them. As were a week. Out from then now our ever occurred should we expect that it dieters don't having any impact that code nineteen instead of having any impact meet. Not of course overnight in a pandemic as but I mean his personal diagnosis. I mean we're outside their range weird. You call it could be balance right debates two and a half weeks in the past now writes a you'd think that. If Biden has realized gains in the debate and maybe now they're semi permanent especially since buying the Stover has come up. More than cuts has come down right you've had some undecideds who have. Now locked in. Or decide carbide with code it's little hard you know it's little harder now if the president being out of the hospital help them. Doesn't seem like it's tightening based on that but that's a little bit more and certain. There a couple of things number one is that Joseph Biden has a pretty big edge in. Advertising especially in swing states. And we think advertising's a little overrated and general read it if truck was really kind of ran out of money then maybe that. Helps. Put some wind in Biden sales and ad supporter said it was numbers and and keeps that debate counts for proceeding to the mean. Also we. Have a lot of people already voted. How pollsters handle that is actually question. It's possible that pollsters. Some people who were deemed to be unlikely voters. Now have voted in the if you see Marty voted that you account is likely voters would have been excluded otherwise rights. Early voting could Hanson. Effects on the pole with a pollsters are handling it correctly I'm not one to say. Are you witnessing every kitchen denial. You know those are some alternative theories for. Her you know why Biden's kind of help us help. This lead. You wrote about this. This week and it's on progress of our listeners noted as well which is that for the first time. On our winding path towards an Electoral College victories snake on the forecast. Georgia initiated blue for the first time which doesn't mean that it's now likely to be won by bite and it still essentially a toss up. But that for the first time in the forecast. You know the Democrat Martin was slightly slightly you know over ahead of trumpeter. Maybe the specific question here we get from Josef witches. How surprising as that Georgia narrow scenes a likelier to ago blue then Ohio. I don't know I mean we have been kind of the same in both like is close to 5050 as it gets I think fairly benign. Ohio if I had to pick between those two going to buying. It's a bit more consistent with his strength elsewhere in the midwest. There are beer years to vote. In Georgia there Mount Washington is trying to kind of account for urban. No I mean Clinton only lost Georgia by. Five points in 2016. I was surprised when look that up I remembered as being like seminary if you only lose by five an election where you. When the patent it like to invite its popular like ten. But you might expect her judicious and after buying two minute by a couple of points. So it's not implausible by any means that church is also pretty. In the last sixty union doesn't actually swing around that much America's yet like. A very solid base of Republican kind of conservative evangelical white voters. You're very solid democratic base of black voters plus. You know kind of Atlanta area multi cultural. Younger voters. But the GOP base is just slightly larger. But there probably are an F. Swing voters in the Atlanta suburbs. Two and Democrats near victories if Democrats are the top of the range with their voters with those voters so it's it's plausible. And it's worth saying that trump who won Ohio by eight points in 2016. So. Actually trump did better in Ohio then heated in Georgia. Beatty there these are two good states to watch in terms. How Biden and trump are performing and you know years perhaps dead or rust Albers a standard Sunbelt state. On election. It'll work noting that Democrats don't actually after we and either towards Europe or Ohio to win the presidency. At all. They may be now have to win either state now and it's pretty unlikely that you're stated he. The tipping point yet it in his some weird maps right where liked. If Biden loses Nevada. And Arizona and Florida North Carolina. Then you have sent maps were Biden. We need Ohio is part of it strengthening midwest to overcome losing of that and other stuff like that right and similar like. If pike had estimated at Westin lost Michigan Wisconsin. And and Pennsylvania. And Minnesota this implicit price. Then. You could make up for that if you won in Florida and Georgia and North Carolina right. You're talking about some pretty far fetched possibilities but keep in mind that like you know to some extent now. If trump is down to it thirteen whatever percent chance of winning then. They're weird things would have to happen for trump to win right. You would have to see some big shifts or for the polls to be way African to win. And if there are big chefs. Order to be pulling here it may not be uniform and may be that in certain states something happens. Two two bites numbers. Elisa by the way like probably the statements like. The worst affected by Covert right now are in the states as Wisconsin which is. Matt good timing from our president. Yet which was actually a listener question that we got so let's dig into a bunch of our listener questions we got a question from Sam and it's. How have the recent rises in corona virus cases affected the models coded adjustments. I know that there are not big adjustments based on code red in the forecast but to what extent partner company change anything and then also. Are just are we seeing an appalling acts it's not a forecast. So the models and summits were in the background tries to figure out if if you put an index of Covert severity and a regression analysis as it gives you. Additional power to explain the polling says. But do we see it polling sheriff's Ian the immediate aftermath. Hot spot and. I have not looked at that detailed in the best example might be something like fla where Biden was polling very well. In June. In the midst of their kind of covered peak and in the race tightened a bit after the peak was declined. They're there's probably some anecdotal. Evidence for it but we're talking emea appoint or something and he looked I would say the voters are not inclined to vote for president cup as a result of his coat. So the mere fact that like. You have rising caseloads and a lot of states now by the way also in in. You're again to. There's going to be a lot of news in conversations about rising case counts about lock downs. We learned this morning that. Vaccines hired not going to be. It's very likely that a major US company will doubts. Are awesome to get FDA approved for emergency use before the election fighter said today we're gonna wait. Until mid November. Other companies have said that to endure there trials are behind schedule or on pause temporarily anyway. So the fact that like. Kobe has given still be a major issue in the last stretch here the fact. That lowering. Or not and an ever. Incoming cases heading into November 3 is not favorable for the president. Andrus saying we actually happen numbers still were aggregating all of the polling. And approval of president response from the coroner Harris crisis and he's not about negative. I think the worst he got was negative twenty in the past two dollars negative sixteen the past several months ago. Across the board Americans are happy. The next question we got his rhetoric from a lot of people and is also something the news has been trying to explain the media trying to explain recently. The question is what's behind the GOP's recent new voter registration advantage. And watch a remake of fort auction. I think they're cute things. Wine is that. The GOP has been dealing. More in person voter registration efforts door knocking and whatnot that Democrats had not been until recently. Two is that Democrats. Had a competitive primary actually Richard a lot of voters. Late last year earlier this year three is that a lot of younger voters. And not to be want to feeling themselves with the party for the pictures independence but it probably profile as likely democratic. Voters limit the younger Hispanics for example might tend to. My tainted registers independent. It probably will not vote for Trout at least most animal. So it's not clear that this GOP advantage in. Party ID necessarily translates 121 in two. Actually having more truck voters' right is fashion as we know that the pool of independent voters like Ike is winning among independents by. Like twenty points in some polls it's a really big edge. And actually went charity that parity like. The whole shy trump voter theory that polls are I mean there are various birds that are. Maurer at less sophisticated. But what version is that polls under sample Republicans. And therefore were they underestimate trial. In fact a lot like calling polls show Republicans in a good position in party identification right we're. They're almost tied with Democrats are closed the gap right. And despite that trip is losing by ten points despite winning independence by twenty points. So that really tells a persuasion story kind of it. Also wouldn't ask people would you look forward in 316 the upshot holes units right. They will find people that say I voted for trump. It was sixteen in this year of mourning for Joseph bite you parish I current voter if you say I voted for apparently sixteen but not this year right. Or say good for Gary Johnson 22 that would provide this year just nine. So. There's all sorts of evidence that like Biden is about persuasion. And I. Turnout. Which to me is action like. A bit more robust. To avoid polling error because turnout can be hard estimate in enemy but if you have evidence of vote switchers. Than. That's usually pretty solid. Art expression is a more a process question and it is is new polling data and annually import into the model or does the system. Automatically pulled it through east. I'm there are a handful. Scrapers. And stuff for some polls but generally speaking we. We enter stuffed it manually. To give you like. Which for our politics news if some a lot of work and you know we're kind of now the de facto polling collector for the whole industry we try to be the most comprehensive of anybody. You know if you're curious it currently takes about ten minutes to run for it has a simulations. Of the presidential model. And a seventeen minutes and forty test simulations returned all of the congressional congressional actually is more code is more complicated does more things. So when you see a new poll pop up Leonard list of pols like what PM say. And you'd expected about one hander went fifteen. The presidential model would update and then when pitino went twenty the congressional model would update. Next question. Wall early voting is an an indicator of final results will late breaking events like a combing latter. Have less impact on the border in a normal non pandemic voting environment because so many voters are getting baked and currently. I mean it a bit right the question is how much is usually people who vote early are weighted toward people who. Are pretty firm partisans and have kind of decide if you can. It's oh let's say that. 40% of people are devoted that if they give it happens it shifting back to trial right with that. Kids wouldn't you know his 60% of the impact. I think probably the baby would only have 80% as much impact and so it does provide. Some insulation to buy. There is no world in which it's good for trial. That Biden is thinking about your vote he's had ten points right. There's no world that's good for trial and less there's some huge rejection rate among these ballots. Yet that for him eight like. But you know I mean in the event of a letter. Immediately because that was trip limit such narrow margin the swing states right. You know maybe calling Leonard when he sixteenth urged when he when he. If that comes an appointment for you for to me people voted maybe a third of the overall turnout rate may be just enough to it. Have saved Clinton in 2016 maybe. Katie asks you've mentioned numerous times that the model assumes tightening in the polls when does that assumption go away and the model just uses the polls is that only on Election Day or Sunday prior to. I think it's actually the indictment for the for the day before the election. The economic week goes to zero in 91% polls and 9% are Pryor's of the prior. Doesn't play a huge role but does a little bit so it means that. So as of this recording we have Biden predicted to win by. Eight point three points and note that that and assume some tightening. Without the prior to be had by nine point one point so why nine point one. And not ten half whatever he is in national polls well again. Deck expected. That's the polar special polled GAAP are forecast of the popular. Is mostly based on state polls and they're more consistent applicant. Nighter nine half point. By Lee. We are questioned for an aerial who says. What are the percentage point ranges you use for the different levels of certainty on the web site. And aerials referring to you'd favored slightly favored clearly favored. Demarcation that we assigned to certain percent chance that's actually how the west front of Clara or aerial so from fifty to 54%. Chance we say it's a toss up. From 55 to 69 we say slightly favored. From seventy to 89% chance we say favored so that's where we are right now for JO I N. For clearly favored the next indication that we have not actually gotten to yet. It's 90% to 97%. And then over ninety and the 98 or above it is very likely to win the election. Sunni do you think we're gonna get to either clearly favorite or very likely to win the election. In. The next two. I will keep gaining. If the polls hold steady in the percentage term track is supposed to record company ground. Yeah I I mean in theory. If there in a well calibrated forecasts. And the percentage. That you haven't any given day is also that prediction of the percentage that you have. The next day right so here you would predict that by it will stay 87% because the race would tighten. A little it. You know in practice I don't mean in practice. We get questions. What could truck due. To help still to come back again I get back to light. Ted and a half points is such a big lead relative to even where this campaign has been. The real that it. 2008 with about seven right. Ten after such a big lead like I'm that's easy to sustain. Other who knows. You know maybe trump is in. It proverbial. Downward spiral. And now it's plausible to. But them outlook we go to Africa are forecast says that. Binds him with a popular vote by eight A half points at 910 points. So it does candidates in the race were tight it. We've got this question a couple times and it's which party is favored to control the most state delegations in the house. You asking this question because there's a tie in the Electoral College it goes to house. And then the votes are cast according to state delegation majority not based on individual house members so is actually the question is. Are Democrats or Republicans controlling six plus state delegation and agitator to less than 1% chance. A Thai in the Electoral College according to our forecast right now. But died do we have an answer it was Russian or part listening. So. We currently show. The 25% chance of Democrats control the most delegations. Between pepper to cancer of the cruelest allegations. And he predicted chance that there's no majority. On the new in his 26. It's actually go line. Opt for Democrats. So right now I think Democrats look at 1246 rates are Democrats after it. We back some delegations. Easley didn't need to win the senate races and house races in Alaska and Montana which are competitive. And it is just wine seat. So you know Democrats have gained in his calculation it looks like a bit. But keep in mind like. This is conditional. In a world Weir's. Purpose and relive that night it was the popular vote by nine points rate and whatnot. If the race tightens. Which is a scenario under which the delegations becomes relevant right if you have Electoral College deadlock. And US house to break a tie were. Interpret competing slates of electors. Then you have a vote by delegations. If we have a tied it probably means we thought of having much more Republican night. And we expected going it. Right to condition almost near the delegations matter the republic took probably still have an edge but you know but it's a reason to watch. Alaska Montana and if you go to. Go to download data to go to the house national topple its violent now contains data on. The projected number delegations for her. Art we just got a couple more questions crisis that we got again hundreds of listener questions so things ever run cent that men. We try to get to as many as possible a lot of these have longer answers. This is all want key what impact doesn't mean adopting rate choice of voting have on the model bowl for the presidency for congress. So it doesn't much affect. A lot of polls and mean will. Use a version where they kind of either simulate the rent choice themselves. Or just ask people with a reported Q where race so we used that version of the questions in Maine. Where they're testing basically two way matchup and said with their parts included. We have some code if you had a case where like it was actually unclear. Who the top two candidates would be. Like an independent it was a true three way race right. We have some code to handle those things but like. Let. It's very very unlikely that you're gonna have a third party actually in the top two in any of the main races. So they've released excuse kind of head to head poll listening to simulate the effective. A reallocation of votes. Art Sam asks have you ever considered trying to model how soon we all know the winner of the election. There are so many variables and question I can't even imagine trying to begin forecasting. You thought about like. You know there are certain states are thought to be kind of quick counting states right you know Florida Arizona. North Carolina rightly thought about like can you designating said of quit counting states and and we might we might add something that. I'm not sure that any. Quite as many bright lines necessarily between. Athens closely people would one. But we're thinking about current versions of our last question bonus question. Do you have a drink of choice for getting through watched. Through election itself. Well I have to works like you have been making the blues. Let's prevalence. With what I feel like it's. Getting through Election Day it's like coffee or red ball yet getting to sleep on Election Day it play whiskey. From we're gonna regret whatever your beer guy Hawaiian guy liquor guy. Getting to sleep after while auction. Usually when you're at it after election would be with skiers but it. That's a gardener. And on. Takes me thank you killed and I should also mention. Big news leadership announces that the top podcasts but we are going to be doing. Deeply podcasts basically from Europe excluding the weekends for the most part mediate if something happens that we can park house but essentially. From. Next Monday when we have our regular Monday podcast through Election Day you're going to be getting hot pants every week dank. And then of course perhaps some on the weekends Woolsey hope but. Get ready for you me podcasts lots and lots of content. Daily practice walks he suffered through these final. Weeks with us. Area. Mining as you enter Tony challenges in the virtual control room. Claire editor Curtis on audio editing. You can get in touch when asked by emailing us at pod cast at 530 dot com you can also courts treated us with any questions or comments. If your friend of the show beavers are reading review in the apple podcast store. Or tell someone about us nature to subscribe YouTube as well. As you know this episode of models along with most of the modcast review articles aren't you. Liked you watch this front I guess for me it might better for your library. Talk about all of this fund stuff anyway thinks of listening and. He and.

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