Transcript for FiveThirtyEight: What will the 2016 Electoral Map look like?
What's been so stable I think number one you've had a time of extreme. Partisanship where both parties into double down on their base and reinforce or strategy had. You know frankly fairly conventional. Set of nominees no NT path breaking the kind of generic candidates but trump could be different potentially. You know I think you got it exactly right you know we're thinking most parties like to stay safe with who they're voting for. In terms of their nominees we've seen at the last few seconds we haven't seen anybody who had broken the mall. And also just the fact that everything right now is basically stayed very stable in terms. Of the map overall including in ex senate and house races. I mean I think the most obvious reason I think the map would change issues Donald Trump. Knew I mean he is just the most unusual candidate to win a nomination since I certainly before I was born and before you were born. Despite U perhaps having a few years. It well and think about the primaries he had this kind of weird correlation between his performance correlation but like he was strong in the northeast. And the south which is and you -- coalition yes to determine I was looking forward there and AM not a strong in the midwest and the west so though by the time California voted. And when Elsa dropped out. I think we were discussing this somewhat but Utah obviously with the Mormon factor could become newly competitive despite the fact it was the most Republican state in the country into that those. Mormons really do not like Donald trial but didn't even increasing state or an increasing state could be Arizona because you have both Hispanic population. And you do have a little bit of a Mormon. Population to an on the truck side. You know I'm might take a flyer on main and I wanted to state that has map yes if are betting on it could be seems like he over performs a bit. In the northeast yet and Maine was one of the states where gore was held under 50% yeah it Elena dimensional also you know. So if company goodnight and means this state that we might wind ups and the second congressional district and that statement any kilometers like nationalist rights that could be you know. If we room sweating every electoral vote.
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