Transcript for FiveThirtyEight House forecast update for August 23, 2018
Our house forecasts currently gives Democrats five in seven chance or about 72%. Chance of winning control of the house and for Republicans it's about a tunes cents. It also gives Democrats 60% chance and 69%. And that's because we actually had three different versions on our forecast. Here there's little bites the classic and the deluxe each version has its own virtues and differs in terms of how many pieces of information uses. To generate its forecasts. These differences between the models also apply to you individual. Take for example Nebraska is second district which includes the city and Omaha progressive democratic nominee carry Eastman. He's gonna run against Republican incumbent dot beacon. Our classic model rates this race tossup with Eastman as a slight favorite to win this. The model comes to that conclusion by looking at the polls which show beacon and a few percentage points but then also combining that information with what we call. The fundamental. Things like how much money each candidate has raised. And how the district has merited historically. The fundamentals are better from a Democrat Eastman and so the classic forecasters her with a small lead. The light forecast harbor which has began basements polls. Shows beacon with them honest and finally the deluxe version has begins slightly favored that's because the deluxe forecast takes the classic version and and and the tomato lettuce maybe beacon which in this case is to raise readings from experts like to cook political and in this case. The cook political report shows Nebraska to you leaning towards the Republican whose name again happens to be beat. Visit 530 dot com slash house forecast to visit the model for years. And oh.
This transcript has been automatically generated and may not be 100% accurate.