Transcript for FiveThirtyEight: Mahershala Ali's path to an Oscar victory
If he's nominated for best supporting actor Oscar. And movement. If he wins the battle making me this flat at 89 years let's win. Who decides his fate Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences better known as he added. Very. Interesting some serious group that decides who in movies it's the industry's most coveted awards. But who actually decides. Police initially its other actors who belong to 118 different voting branches of the cat. And Harold exhausts actors make it the largest voting bloc and from the producers then and the animators and directors and so on and so forth. Do you get casting directors almost ranch but that's next. There are 1158. Members in the actor's range it's here each box represents ten members or ten votes. Omar Herschel had to do was convinced a 194. Of his peers or 70% of his name their first choice in his head. So we know them a Herschel Ali's performance has won a tender hearted drug kingpin. As reach the necessary threshold of support from other actors secured him a best supporting actor nominee. Now. Now the vote goes beyond strange now all of the academy members of all the voting Rangers decide whether that performance was this year's events. And an act his way simplest. I'll be just needs to win more votes from those 6687. Voting academy members and his rivals. He's OK that's the challenge is predicting how the entire academy the lien is tricky stuff. Because we don't actually know too many specifics about who its members are. How many of them voted to give. But we do now and then winning Screen Actors Guild award in the C category we'll historically led to an Oscar win 59%. Of the time. And other awards nominations they offer even more insights. We created an Oscar track. It follows nominees including Herschel and gives them a score based on award that they've won so far this year. So intense and we in late last month that we predict Marshall while he's been very tough to beat especially considering how poorly his closest competition tested. You know what. I was a long standing soft spot for tender hearted drug dealers I could not be happy.
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